bobrob2004

Chafin also hasn't been that good outside of Detroit over the last few years: 2022 DET - 2.83 ERA, 3.06 FIP 2023 ARI/MIL - 4.73 ERA, 4.01 FIP 2024 DET - 3.16 ERA, 2.54 FIP 2024 TEX - 4.19 ERA, 5.44 FIP Detroit is probably the best place where he can be successful.

Right here: I'm alright! Just been busy lately and usually don't visit this site during the off-season.

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #1 – Tarik Daniel Skubal Another season is upon us, another year of bad predictions. As always I love to see your expectations too. The big question with Tarik Skubal entering the 2024 season was if he could replicate his 2023 performance (2.80 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 in 80 1/3 innings) over a full season of work. Not only did he replicate his performance, but he exceeded most everyone’s expectations, with a 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts, and 18 wins, winning the American League Triple Crown for the first time since Shane Bieber* in 2020 (Justin Verlander did it over a full 162-game season with the Tigers in 2011). Skubal also won the Cy Young Award (first Tiger to win it since Max Scherzer in 2013). Tark Skubal throws a 4-season fastball (33.2 percent of the time), changeup (27.2 percent), sinker (20.5 percent) and slider (14.9 percent) with a knuckle curve that he uses exclusively against right-handed hitters. According to Baseball Savant, he is in the 99 percentile on fastball run value, 93 percentile in off-speed run value, and 83 percentile in breaking run value, all in the “great” classification. Skubal also excels in most other areas, including a 2.72 xERA (94 percentile), .208 xBA (86 percentile), 31.9 percent whiff% (90 percentile), and a 33.9 percent hard-hit% (84 percentile). It’s amazing how the 28-year old was able to come so close to his 2023 numbers in 2024, despite a bigger workload and showing almost no signs of fatigue in the second half (2.41 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 in the first half and 2.37 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 in the second half). Here are some numbers over the last couple of years, along with his career totals: 2023: 32.9% K% | 4.5% BB% | .198 AVG | 2.00 FIP 2024: 30.3% K% | 4.6% BB% | .200 AVG | 2.49 FIP Career: 28.1% K% | 6.0% BB% | .220 AVG | 3.38 FIP Skubal, still under 30 years old, is right in the prime of his career. The consistency shows that he should easily be able to do it again in 2025, if not become even better and contend for another Cy Young Award. It hasn’t been this exciting to see a good, young, pitching performance for the Tigers since Velander and Scherzer about 10 years ago. The only disappointing this about all of this is that the Tigers failed to sign Skubal to a long-term deal during the off-season, increasing his likelihood of leaving as a free agent after the 2026 season. But we should enjoy watching him while he’s here in Detroit. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 198 IP | 14-9 W/L | 2.83 ERA | 1.02 WHIP | 229 K | 42 BB Steamer – 196 IP | 13-9 W/L | 2.92 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 228 K | 45 BB ZiPS DC – 198 IP | 15-8 W/L | 2.74 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 227 K | 39 BB ATC – 184 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.88 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 213K | 39 BB THE BAT – 184 IP | 13-8 W/L | 2.91 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 215 K | 41 BB OOPSY – 200 IP | 16-8 W/L | 2.74 ERA | 1.02 WHIP | 230 K | 46 BB RotoChamp – 189 IP | 14-8 W/L | 2.86 ERA | 1.01 WHIP | 219 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – 179 IP | 14-5 W/ L | 2.92 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 203 K | 41 BB ESPN – 194 IP | 16 W | 2.92 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 231 K | 43 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 163 1/3 IP | 13-6 W/L | 2.92 ERA | 0.986 WHIP | 179 K | 38 BB 2024 Actual – 192 IP | 18-4 W/L | 2.39 ERA | 0.922 WHIP | 228 K | 25 BB 2025 Prediction – 198 2/3 IP | 17-6 W/L | 2.54 ERA | 0.921 WHIP | 244 K | 35 BB

Ironic in that for a long time everyone used to watch the Braves on TBS, now they are going to be the most restricted team that you can watch.

https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/who-was-ty-cobb-the-history-we-know-thats-wrong/

I know he was an asshole. Just a lot of it was made up, exaggerated. I never said he was a saint.

What's worse is a lot of Cobb's reputation of being an asshole is a lie, made up in order to sell a book.

I never saw him play. He was before my time. The only memories I have of him is him being an asshole. His numbers are historical, but I don't have the nostalgia that most people here have. May he rest in peace, but there's very little emotion here from me.

Time to evaluate my predictions. Spencer Torkelson: 2024 Prediction – 603 AB | .231/.315/.483 | 39 HR | 99 RBI | 2 SB | 71 BB | 175 K 2024 Actual – 342 AB | .219/.295/.374 | 10 HR | 37 RBI | 0 SB | 33 BB | 105 K Brutal season for Tork as he spent a lot of time in AAA. This was my major bold prediction, and it was a swing and a miss. Riley Greene: 2024 Prediction – 596 AB | .277/.339/.435 | 16 HR | 61 RBI | 16 SB | 56 BB | 172 K 2024 Actual – 512 AB | .262/.348/.479 | 24 HR | 74 RBI | 4 SB | 64 BB | 156 Big breakout year and exceeded my power prediction. Nice to see. Tarik Skubal: 2024 Prediction – 163 1/3 IP | 13-6 W/L | 2.92 ERA | 0.986 WHIP | 179 K | 38 BB 2024 Actual – 192 IP | 18-4 W/L | 2.39 ERA | 0.922 WHIP | 228 K | 35 BB I thought I was being over optimistic, but he exceeded my expectations. Cy Young. Kerry Carpenter: 2024 Prediction – 473 AB | .262/.330/.467 | 24 HR | 68 RBI | 7 SB | 39 BB | 118 K 2024 Actual – 264 AB | .284/.345/.587 | 18 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 22 BB | 75 K Man, if only he could have stayed healthy all year. Major improvement on power. Kenta Maeda: 2024 Prediction – 134 2/3 IP | 9-7 W/L | 4.11 ERA | 1.132 WHIP | 149 K | 37 BB 2024 Actual – 112 1/3 IP | 3-7 W/L | 6.09 ERA | 1.380 WHIP | 96 K | 31 BB 🤣 🤣 🤣 😭 Not good. Javy Baez: 2024 Prediction – 527 AB | .235/.282/.372 | 14 HR | 63 RBI | 12 SB | 26 BB | 136 K 2024 Actual – 272 AB | .184/.221/.294 | 6 HR | 37 RBI | 8 SB | 12 BB | 69 K Ok, I so wanted to be optimistic here. Funny how the Tigers improved so much when he got injured. Jack Flaherty: 2024 Prediction – 154 IP | 9-8 W/L | 4.27 ERA | 1.422 WHIP | 154 K | 67 BB 2024 Actual – 162 IP | 13-7 W/L | 3.17 ERA | 1.068 WHIP | 194 K | 38 BB Why couldn’t Fetters fix Maeda the same way? Parker Meadows: 2024 Prediction – 480 AB | .244/.327/.400 | 16 HR | 53 RBI | 21 SB | 56 BB | 139 K 2024 Actual – 270 AB | .244/.310/.433 | 9 HR | 28 RBI | 9 SB | 25 BB | 76 K Also spent some time in AAA after a brutal start. Optimistic about his return, though. Breakout next year? Mark Canha: 2024 Prediction – 439 AB | .257/.351/.387 | 9 HR | 61 RBI | 9 SB | 51 BB | 83 K 2024 Actual – 393 AB | .242/.344/.346 | 7 HR | 42 RBI | 7 SB | 51 BB | 96 K Way off on the playing time. Continues the after-prime decline. Matt Manning: 2024 Prediction – 116 1/3 IP | 6-9 W/L | 4.56 ERA | 1.272 WHIP | 81 K | 33 BB 2024 Actual – 27 2/3 IP | 0-1 W/L | 4.88 ERA | 1.554 WHIP | 23 K | 12 BB So many pitchers have surpassed him on the depth chart. Is he even in the picture next year? Jake Rogers: 2024 Prediction – 338 AB | .213/.282/.417 | 19 HR | 50 RBI | 1 SB | 30 BB | 124 K 2024 Actual – 310 AB | .197/.255/.352 | 10 HR | 36 RBI | 1 SB | 22 BB | 99 K Just a tad optimistic about his power potential. Reese Olson: 2024 Prediction – 129 1/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.38 ERA | 1.322 WHIP | 130 K | 51 BB 2024 Actual – 112 1/3 IP | 4-8 W/L | 3.53 ERA | 1.184 WHIP | 101 K | 33 BB Chris Fetters works his magic again. Colt Keith: 2024 Prediction – 467 AB | .236/.299/.375 | 14 HR | 47 RBI | 1 SB | 42 BB | 131 K 2024 Actual – 516 AB | .260/.309/.380 | 13 HR | 61 RBI | 7 SB | 36 BB | 110 K Rough start, but finished strong. Super excited to see him over the next several years. Gio Urshela: 2024 Prediction – 347 AB | .277/.311/.375 | 6 HR | 43 RBI | 1 SB | 17 BB | 63 K 2024 Actual – 425 AB | .249/.285/.362 | 9 HR | 51 RBI | 0 SB | 22 BB | 70 K Biggest surprise to see his batting average decline so much. Casey Mize: 2024 Prediction – 122 1/3 IP | 5-9 W/L | 4.71 ERA | 1.357 WHIP | 89 K | 43 BB 2024 Actual – 102 1/3 IP | 2-6 W/L | 4.49 ERA | 1.466 WHIP | 78 K | 29 BB Hopefully next year he can stay healthy and have his breakout year.

The only thing I don't like about Benneti is when he goes off topic and talks about the moon for 30 minutes. Stick to baseball, that's the reason I'm watching.

Friday: Ty Cobb.

Jim Leyland Day was August 3. The Tigers were 52-59, falling 7 games under .500 after a 5-game losing streak (which probably prompted Leyland's statement). The Tigers are now 82-74, so the math checks out.

Tigers had a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs on August 11. Now they have a 70.5% chance of making the playoffs.

I found a free trial that worked for me. Assuming you haven't already redeemed it earlier: https://redeem.services.apple/fnb-so-amr-2024?rt=social&itscg=80218&itsct=s_mlb_partner_2024_offer

Ohtani accumulated more WAR in one game than any single player on the White Sox accumulated all year.

The Tigers have had the best record in the AL since July 5th.

Anybody fans of sudoku? I've been pretty into sudoku puzzles lately, especially variant sudoku. I figured out how to create one if anyone's interested: https://sudokupad.app/tm22jzmoe4

Here's a good one; https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/can-the-tigers-storm-into-the-mlb-playoffs-what-to-know-about-detroits-furious-fight-for-a-wild-card-berth/

There's a whole set of tiebreaker rules that will determine the winner: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules

He has 19 in Toledo and 9 with the Tigers. He will need 12 more for the rest of the season. He needs 15 more for the rest of the season, so there is still a chance. He has 2 and will need 28 more in 18 games. Unlikely. No. No and yes. Yes. Yes and no. Technically only 1 start, but has pitched 4+ innings in each of his 3 appearances. https://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung Will Clase actually win?

The Tigers are 15-5 in the last 20 games, best in all of baseball, and are 5 games back of a WC spot and will have to overtake either the Royals or Twins (or both) to make it. The Red Sox are 4.5 games back, but the Tigers won the season series and therefore have won the tie breaker if they end up with identical records. Let's assume Baltimore wins one of the WC spots, that leaves 2 spots open for the Twins, Royals, Red Sox, Tigers, and Mariners. How confident are you in the Tigers actually making the post-season? Baseball Reference: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-playoff-odds.shtml 12.9% making the playoffs, 1.2% winning the pennant, 0.6% winning the WS. FanGraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds 7.3% making the playoffs, 0.1% winning the WS.

An AI generated song about Tigers prospects. https://suno.com/song/710f8cb6-8b34-4326-b444-ba483b43e928

An AI generated country song about the Tigers mediocre season. https://suno.com/song/012a7989-208b-4c9a-898e-03c763f3b49e

Tyler Holton needs to be a starting pitcher next year. It's not unheard of to transition a reliever to a starter (Michael Lorenzen did it at age 30, Holton will be 29 next year). Holton has started 5 games this year, but all of them have been "bullpen" days and he hasn't gone past the 3rd inning in any of them. No, he needs to be a full fledged starting pitcher that goes at least 5 innings. And he definitely has the numbers to do it. Last year, Holton pitched 85 1/3 innings. This is a lot for a primary reliver (only Jake Bird, 89 IP, and Jakub Junis, 86 IP had more innings pitched while starting less than 5 games). This year, he had 70 2/3 IP, again one of the highest innings total for a primary reliever. Let's look at the stats. Over the last 2 years in 156 innings, Holton has a 2.31 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 0.85 WHIP. 7.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9. As a southpaw, he is obviously better against lefties (.144/.189/.196 career batting against) but he can get righties out too (.215/.267/.360 career batting against). Finally, just look at his numbers on Baseball Savant: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tyler-holton-663947?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb Pitching Run Value: 93 percentile. Fastball Run Value: 97 percentile. xERA: 86 percentile. Average Exit Velocity: 93 percentile. Chase%: 98 percentile. He was great last year and is even better this year. Something I find interesting is that he exclusively throws cutters and changeups to RHB and sinkers and sliders to LHB. He seems like a smart pitcher in this way, and I'm attributing most of that to Chris Fetter. No, Tyler Holton is not going to turn into a Cy Young pitcher as a starter, but he is being wasted in the bullpen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can be an effective starting pitcher at the ML level and now is a great time to start stretching him out, since he is already "starting" with all the injuries and the Flaherty trade.

Spencer Torkelson Riley Greene Casey Mize Alex Faedo Matt Manning These are the last 5 Tigers #1 picks that have made to the Majors. The only one that I wouldn't trade for Chapman is Greene. Take that for what it's worth.