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gehringer_2

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Everything posted by gehringer_2

  1. This feels right. Tork's swing is a beautiful thing now, it's what he chooses to swing at, or maybe what he needs to be able to get his swing on that he hasn't in the past, that needs to change. I've though for a while that his biggest problem was plate coverage, and I think Harris said as much in the post-season presser. In that sense maybe he has to learn to/become more willing to, take what he regards as a less than perfect swing to defend the zone better.
  2. Can "Protegor" be far behind?
  3. the existence of the dept of Education is simply an org chart choice. The real question is what happens to the legislation that directs the department's current mandates? Before there was a department of Education there was a division within the former Dept or Health, Education and Welfare (HEW). The president can reduce his cabinet by one chair (assuming he gets Congress to go along - TBH, 15 direct reports is a large number for any admin) but the rubber meets the road at what Congress does with all of DOE's current tasks. If they just all get moved into another administrative unit inside say, HHS, then not much changes. It's not like any one knows who the Secretary of Education is or he/she has any great pull in inside the executive branch now. Just for context, the nation managed to educate the largest cohort in his history before DOE existed (est 1979). This is actually the kind of thing I hope Trump spends all his time on. Stuff that is red meat to the base but in basically re-arranging deck chairs. Improves the odds he'll have less ambition to screw up important stuff.
  4. is it really, or is it just that the Biden/Obama voter didn't show up? If your people don't show up every sub group is going to look shifted to the other side. The real question is were minds changed or just voting reliability that changed.
  5. combination of a good bullpen holding the line but also a symptom of a team that can't hit the breaking ball? Theory: relieve pitchers throw less spin than starters.
  6. which is the sad part. So we 'blame' it all on the brown people when it's us that have created the framework within which they are just trying to do the best they can for themselves. If the country isn't going to let them in or stay, the first thing we need to do make sure the people in CA/SA understand the situation before they leverage probably everything the have to get here.
  7. the approach was mostly wrong. If you want to slow the flow, the people coming need to understand they can't stay, not that it's harder to get across - there will always be ways to get across. And in fact we have little problem interdicting people who do cross, it has been that the process after they are interdicted is broken. The dems sort of went along with theoretical discussion that border 'security' was the problem because they didn't want to face changing the asylum system because it's a progressive marker. If you could close the border tight enough, you wouldn't have to face that the asylum system was broken. But 'sealing' the border is an illusion. You can't apprehend a crosser until they are in the US and as soon as they cross the line they can avoid being returned. That is where the bigger part of the problem has been for a long time now. And this doesn't even touch on the fact that small business owners (largely GOP) don't want stricter employment enforcement either. A dirty little economic secret is that the large number of undocumenteds in the workforce creates a constant downward pressure on entry level wages across the economy and that's just peachy with the Chamber of Commerce.
  8. argh - sounds like suicide by cop.
  9. Rule of thumb: If you look at your fingertips and see this color , turn it back up a little....
  10. This. 1000%. Ultimately in a cap world you are going to have a hard time trading your way up, you must out draft other teams to make progress. You have the same GM as operated in the Tampa build - but he has surrounded himself with more of his old pals in this gig and I wonder if they are not performing at the level his Tampa staff did. Is he is more comfortable with them than he should be?
  11. Can't say I've ever heard music on at either of the closest Kroger's to my house - and glad of it!
  12. and they undoubtedly spent it, so WAD.
  13. no doubt. When he came back he was better, but he still wasn't great. Can he continue to consolidate whatever gains he made in approach? If he were to take another step equivalent to the step he took on his return he'd be in useful range - so that's the question - can he? I think they are going to give him the chance unless something literally fall into their lap for 1B. So we'll probably find out.
  14. I believe the Constitution does not prevent states from voting their electors proportionally (there was a move to try to get Neb to do just that this cycle) but the problem isn't so much electoral college per se, but that the Constitution mandates any lack of a majority is thrown to the House, and in that vote all population based representation is lost and all large states are disenfranchised as there is only one vote per state. Thus every large state sees it in it's interest to elect it's electors on a winner take all basis to make sure someone is more likely to get a majority lest the mountain west's 15 people get to elect a president..... Since the executive and legislative elections are fundamentally separate, there is no way to build a ruling coalition out of two parties that have a majority of the presidential vote between them but where a third has a plurality. And that is the question that would have to be wrestled with if the US went to direct election. The only workable way would be setup for a run-off election between the top two candidates if no-one got a majority because there no mechanism to apportion the Congress by presidential candidate vote. In truth, whole system has to eventually crash though - the tension between so much Electoral power being non-population proportioned is going to bring the system down eventually, because at this point the small states will never allow an amendment to fix it. It's going to be like the NCAA, at some point the big states are going to dissolve the Union to get rid of the power of the little guys.
  15. All fiat currencies exist in part based on what an author I'm reading (Yuval Harari: "Nexus" ) would call an intersubjective reality. For instance the dollar functions primary because people have a believe the US government and the Federal Reserve will act effectively to preserve it's value. Bitcoin functions solely because people believe there will eventually be someone out there that will pay more for it than they did. That's a lot less to go on than the full faith and credit of the US Gov, but it's been enough so far.
  16. third parties can only work in proportional systems because nobody wants to run just be guaranteed to lose. Years ago we had a third party in SE Mi, that started local in A^2 and did win a seat or two on the city council, but couldn't break out of those limits.At the national level, Wallace, Jon Anderson and especially Perot had a lot of money and name recognition but didn't do much to further their agenda. Perot was a conservative but mostly helped a Dem get elected which I doubt was his intent. And that's the thing, most third parties are going to draw the most support from the side they are already most aligned with, thus splitting the vote and electing the side they have the biggest beefs with. That's just counter productive politics, but it's baked into the Constitution's structure.
  17. The 10yr is yield is still running below everything shorter than 4M, so the bond market still hasn't pulled out of it's yield curve inversion. If the fed actually thinks they are getting near their so-called 'equilibrium' short term rate, long term rates are destined to go up more. Short term rates would have to fall to something like ~3.5% to support where the 10yr rate is now and they aren't getting there for while.
  18. They are stuck in purgatory with a bunch of forwards who can't play a high level game and a defense that is too old and slow across it's bottom half. So Seider/Edvinnson and Raymond are good players - Cossa might be a good goalie. That's not nearly enough from the system in 4yrs. At this rate Larkin will be collecting his pension before they ever fill out a 20 main roster around him.
  19. Balance is not needed, a 'balanced budget' straight jacket would leave the government unable to do counter cyclical spending in the face of recession, in fact it would cause recessions to bottom much deeper than they other might. The Covid economic crash would have been twice the disaster if the Fed had not been able to open the taps. The problem with Federal spending in recent years is that a 'good' economy is never 'good enough' anymore. If you look at the State of Michigan, they put money in a 'rainy day' fund when the economy is good, spend it when it's bad. It is not possible for the Federal government to actually save money, its ledger can never go all the way to positive. it has to act on the below zero/debt side - spend a little more when things are down. spend less and let the debt close when times are good. But it's all been on one side for too long. For instance the last 3 yrs of Obama's admin the economy was good enough they should have been paying down, but they didn't. The economy is good enough now we should be paying down - we aren't. But another reason it doesn't happen is the GOP's "starve the government and drown in the bathtub" philosophy because that depends on pushing a constant debt crisis, which means they will never agree to raise taxes as part of a balanced plan to close the debt when the economy is good enough to support it.
  20. Not even to mention that 3 games in 4 days shouldn't even be a scheduling option in the NHL.
  21. I'm not sure I agree. I think it may be the opposite - they are below critical mass of quality players to allow a great (or even very good) player to show up - well make that particularly centers. They have a few decent wings all competing to play with the one center who can make offense go. We complain about Raymond - dollars to donut you put him back with Larkin and his goal scoring an impact on the ice starts climbing again. I think scoring sucks more because they have no centers after Larkin that are even average, than because they need a superstar per se, or maybe by definition any center that came in and played at anything close to Larkins level would be one definition of a star, though people constantly tell us Larkin is not in that class.....
  22. A perfectly rational decision - until it turns out to be wrong. But thereby maybe also hangs a tale. If the roofing had a known limited lifetime then replacement was envisioned, and if replacement was envisioned for a ball park that meant there was a way to get it done in an off-season. So what's stopping them now? Obviously it's still throwing good money after bad, but TBF, even if they were willing lead time probably makes it impossible. If the panels were going to be replaced they probably needed ordered in months ago.
  23. I don't know how much difference it would make in the end when you don't have a QB that can make basic throws. On one play late in the game, Warren looked at Loveland, who was breaking open, looked away, got pressured and tried to go back to him once he was covered. If he'd just make the initial throw it's 1st down. Not really his fault - he just doesn't see the field.
  24. LOL - they get the ball back with all the momentum and the O lays an egg with Warren missing a wide open throw to cap a three and out.
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