mtutiger

I know I got pushback a while back for saying there were differences, but today is a really good example of the differences between his civil trials and his criminal ones.

Rejected

Interesting reporting here....

To me, the biggest issue I see for Trump coming out of last night is that he did really poorly in West Michigan... 58% of the vote in Kent County, 61% in Ottawa (which used to be the most bedrock GOP County in the state). Trump won the GR region (barely) in 2020... there's a decent body of evidence that suggests he can lose it outright in this election. He can still win Michigan, the polls certainly say he can... but West Michigan and its trends are a real barrier and suggest he will have to make up losses elsewhere.

Like any of these picks, whether they are mistakes or not are subjective, and it takes a lot more track record for each of these players to make a determination.

Not really breaking through this AM, but worth noting that some of Biden's best margins are in Pontiac and Southfield, with Detroit not far behind (UC in mid single digits) There's work to be done on AA turnout, but the margins suggest he's still reasonably strong with this group

It will be a sign of progress for this organization whenever we finally have a draft where the fans aren't endlessly comparing the Tigers pick to some other teams pick. The Zach Neto discourse last year whenever he was called up by the Angels was pretty insufferable

For sure, I learned this from living with runoffs in Texas. Coalitions can scramble.

The Dearborn numbers (which I guess could still fluctuate) just seem really underwhelming for the uncommitted campaign considering the outsized media coverage it has gotten. Overall, philosophically, I don't have a problem with uncommitted. It's designed as a pressure relief valve, and it can still have that practice here, I really do believe it. But the fact that this became so polarized is 100% on the media. They just *had* to have a story to run with, and they will have it whether the results bear it out or not.

Uncommitted pulls 56% in Dearborn, it appears

This held up well lol

My home county is just about finished counting (Huron), located in one of the more conservative, Trumpy areas of the state, and he's pulling 72%. With not half bad turnout in the Democratic primary taking place simultaneously relative to partisanship. That's pretty eye-opening to me.

It's a modern art masterpiece! lol

Uncommitted doing decent in Metro Detroit and in Washtenaw, lagging considerably elsewhere. It'll probably land between 10-15% I'd guess?

I look forward to being told how this doesn't matter yet again....

Lowering expectations?

Also, this engagement over a possible ceasefire has been going on for weeks now.... it's not something that came up last week on account of the Michigan Primary. It feels crazy that I even have to say this FFS.

WTF

I'm not sure the media is aware that anything in Michigan exists west of US 23 or north of M-59 lol

Alek Manoah hitting guys left and right.

The state as a whole (mail + early voting) is at around 1M per that umichvoter guy on Twitter, so I suspect a lot of people put it in envelopes and mailed it in. It's hard to parse election day anecdotes because obviously there's a ton of precincts and they aren't all alike, but the idea of an army of national reporters hanging out a random precinct in Dearborn really demonstrates, for a lack of better term, thirstiness on their part.

I imagine that early / mail in voting is part of the issue here and just less people are voting on Election Day than in the past in Michigan. But it's kinda hilarious regardless...

Considering there is an active campaign to get people to vote uncommitted, 20k raw votes seems like a very low baseline to claim success

It's a good point and one to remember when describing any minority group, let alone Arabs. You'd think with the differences between Hispanics in South Florida (mostly Cuban and South Americans fleeing communist regimes) and Arizona or California (mostly Mexican) we would learn not to speak about demographics in purely monolithic terms. But here we are.