mtutiger
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Everything posted by mtutiger
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Wisconsin is interesting... I think Evers wins, but can Barnes keep up with his margin? Running 2-3 pts behind
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Wow.... Biden won the initial batch by 11 last time iirc
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Not many good tea leaves for the Doc
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Uhh
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Texas really is changing...
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Another one that the experts didn't consider competitive... Omaha
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Take all the time you need
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👀
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This was a flip opportunity for the Rs
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North Carolina - Budd appears to be running behind Trump by 3-4% in a couple of counties
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Only a few precincts, but Holy Hell...
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Gotta like that if you are Whitmer....
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E Day vote margin not where it needs to be for Dems, as far as I can tell
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The Dane numbers (if coupled with high turnout in Milwaukee) are a necessity, but I don't know if it's enough based on how the rest of the state votes / how turnout is. Similar question as Pennsylvania, but Wisconsin was also much closer in 2020. Right now, Nevada seems pretty shaky, Ralston's winning streak might be up.
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I'll take the under, unfortunately...
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I'm not sure Florida is a great state to extrapolate nationally to in this cycle.
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One part of 2020 that feels underdiscussed is how college campuses are back in session in person for the most part... wonder how that affects turnout in college communities.
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That's definitely true in Philadelphia, which is gonna be an 80-20 type breakdown. It wasn't gonna all be mail ballots there.
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It's hard to put into too much context without knowing what turnout is like in other parts of the Commonwealth, but Philly showing up and voting at similar to 2018 levels is important. But have to see if it continues into the day
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Not that I expect Texas to be very close, but I would be surprised if it weren't closer than Florida this cycle.
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She was down by a fraction of a percent in a Trafalger poll this AM.... but it's Trafalger, and they did overestimate Trump last cycle in MI
