This is a weird pop-culture reference, but it's almost like Putin, ala the Russian baddy in the Bond film Octopussy, just assumed that he could roll NATO with his scheme, when the reality is that NATO has projected more strength in the past week or so than the alliance has in a while. All on account of his aggression.
The danger is that he's in a corner now.... just domestically, he has to come away with a W.