mtutiger

"Dukakis in the Tank" energy

Real life James Bond villain

Wow

Sure, but my point is that a lot of these losses (to the extent that they further materialize) are already baked into the landscape. And again, this is a group of voters that, in totality, is significantly less than Biden's margin in 2020. A couple of point shift to the left in Oakland County, or a couple of more points of turnout in Detroit (which is a hydrogen bomb of D votes) would single-handedly wipe out those losses and thensome. All of this is to say that if Harris loses Michigan, it isn't going to be because of Arab voters... it will be because she lost ground in other, larger parts of the electorate that make up the state. It doesn't mean that this group isn't important, every vote matters, but context matters as well.

Dobbs is a factor too.... People don't want to engage on this, but the discussion around these voters is more nuanced than what we generally get. Mostly because a) it's inconvenient and b) national media outlets don't understand the demographics of Michigan at all.

To be fair, the fact that Gretchen Whitmer did 20 points worse with this group despite winning the state by 11 suggests other reasons could be a factor as well

Three polls now today (Noble, YouGov - National, Marquette - Wisconsin) showing Harris with leads despite electorates that are very Republican leaning (R +3, R+3 and R+5 respectively). That really stands out.... She's getting leads in individual polls even with heavy R samples.

Considering Arnold's history (and how he came to this country and how he landed in the GOP), I found this really powerful.

Is it tho? I doubt it's ideal, but it does give him an opportunity to distance themselves from Biden lol

Most of what he has done since he ended his campaign hasn't mattered (this isn't his first gaffe), and this will be no different in all likelihood. Also think it gives Harris an opportunity to further distance herself from Biden and "the politics of the past" if she's asked about it

Was Biden +7.1 in 2020. Hmmm

Biden lost the district (in it's current form) by 2.8.

Correct, explained in subsequent post.

Just thinking aloud (PA is probably the swing state I know the most about outside of MI due to family reasons)... there's evidence (in district polling) that she's could improve in the Lehigh Valley (ie. Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton area) and in South Central PA (ie. Harrisburg Area). Suburban Philly and Pitt likely trend left as well. If all true, Scranton/Wilkes Barre is one of the best places to make up ground if you are losing raw votes elsewhere. If you aren't making up ground there, there aren't a lot of areas left; you have to make it up either in "The T" (ie. Alabama in the Middle), NW Corner (ie. Erie area) or via Urban PA (ie. Inner Core Philly/Pittsburgh, either collapse in turnout or an epochal shift in vote behavior). Not saying any of those things cannot happen or that the district level polling is 100% correct, but it's something to think about, and partly why PA tends to get lumped in with MI as being one of Harris' more favorable states at the moment.

Trump/Harris margin practically even vs. 2020 in this NEPA (red trending) district... Probably wins the state if this is what it ends up looking like

Yiiiikes

The fact that this wasn't 9-0 is ridiculous

I think it will be close too... my only real hot take is that she has more upside in Georgia than the polls are showing.

Isn't there an (e) option that involves pollsters overcorrecting? I honestly don't know what is going on, but I do think that people are too dismissive of the idea that pollsters are trying things to increase accuracy from previous elections and that we ultimately won't know whether it works or not until after this thing happens.

CES's estimates are based off their demographic crosstabs - they had Trump gaining more with black voters and Harris gaining more with white voters than is likely to happen. I particularly doubt the Georgia numbers.... I'd be surprised if the spread is that high.

I would take a narrow win at this point just for this alone - maybe with him off this mortal coil or too old / incapacitated, maybe it gives both parties an opportunity to regroup and move our politics beyond his BS. If he wins, there'll be none of that.

CES shows her getting 276, not 270

Unless my math is wrong, that would add up to a Harris EC win.

All true, but a world where the economy doesn't matter isn't ideal for them, and they know it.