mtutiger

If there is one real disappointment throughout this entire thing, it's that Mitt Romney still hasn't done the right thing here... don't know how much it matters, but it's obvious.

The Governors race is competitive because the Lt. Gov candidate (they run as a ticket in IN) is certifiable, probably the main reason (her only chance involves a big turnout in that district). Helping Frank Mrvan in IN-1 is a secondary reason, although he's probably OK.

It's actually worse on video

You're correct.... not sure if that explains the difference, but perhaps has something to do with trying to reach Kenosha Co, who knows.

It would be - I don't know how ad buys work (if they are night to night or are for the series), but if a campaign is advertising during the WS, it's generally a national buy iirc.

I haven't had the chance to go to MI or north of the cheddar curtain this year, but even driving around areas where I have been this year (IL, IA, MN, PA, IN, OH, Upstate NY) it's been striking how few signs have been out in the wild. There's been an uptick in the last week or so, but it's really muted.

WTF

Sporting events tend to be national buys - could just be spending decisions night to night by the campaigns? I live in the Chicago area and otherwise on local TV it's local IL races and the IN-1 and IN-Gov races.

"Dukakis in the Tank" energy

Real life James Bond villain

Wow

Sure, but my point is that a lot of these losses (to the extent that they further materialize) are already baked into the landscape. And again, this is a group of voters that, in totality, is significantly less than Biden's margin in 2020. A couple of point shift to the left in Oakland County, or a couple of more points of turnout in Detroit (which is a hydrogen bomb of D votes) would single-handedly wipe out those losses and thensome. All of this is to say that if Harris loses Michigan, it isn't going to be because of Arab voters... it will be because she lost ground in other, larger parts of the electorate that make up the state. It doesn't mean that this group isn't important, every vote matters, but context matters as well.

Dobbs is a factor too.... People don't want to engage on this, but the discussion around these voters is more nuanced than what we generally get. Mostly because a) it's inconvenient and b) national media outlets don't understand the demographics of Michigan at all.

To be fair, the fact that Gretchen Whitmer did 20 points worse with this group despite winning the state by 11 suggests other reasons could be a factor as well

Three polls now today (Noble, YouGov - National, Marquette - Wisconsin) showing Harris with leads despite electorates that are very Republican leaning (R +3, R+3 and R+5 respectively). That really stands out.... She's getting leads in individual polls even with heavy R samples.

Considering Arnold's history (and how he came to this country and how he landed in the GOP), I found this really powerful.

Is it tho? I doubt it's ideal, but it does give him an opportunity to distance themselves from Biden lol

Most of what he has done since he ended his campaign hasn't mattered (this isn't his first gaffe), and this will be no different in all likelihood. Also think it gives Harris an opportunity to further distance herself from Biden and "the politics of the past" if she's asked about it

Was Biden +7.1 in 2020. Hmmm

Biden lost the district (in it's current form) by 2.8.

Correct, explained in subsequent post.

Just thinking aloud (PA is probably the swing state I know the most about outside of MI due to family reasons)... there's evidence (in district polling) that she's could improve in the Lehigh Valley (ie. Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton area) and in South Central PA (ie. Harrisburg Area). Suburban Philly and Pitt likely trend left as well. If all true, Scranton/Wilkes Barre is one of the best places to make up ground if you are losing raw votes elsewhere. If you aren't making up ground there, there aren't a lot of areas left; you have to make it up either in "The T" (ie. Alabama in the Middle), NW Corner (ie. Erie area) or via Urban PA (ie. Inner Core Philly/Pittsburgh, either collapse in turnout or an epochal shift in vote behavior). Not saying any of those things cannot happen or that the district level polling is 100% correct, but it's something to think about, and partly why PA tends to get lumped in with MI as being one of Harris' more favorable states at the moment.

Trump/Harris margin practically even vs. 2020 in this NEPA (red trending) district... Probably wins the state if this is what it ends up looking like

Yiiiikes