I understand what the projections say. Meadows has put up 108 OPS+ over his last 900 or so plate trips over the past 2-1/2 years, and he has gotten over 120 OPS+ only once in his five seasons. I also believe the "healthy" part may be the key: he's coming off a bunch of owies on top of equilibrial weirdness, so I would not be necessarily disappointed if he came back for 200 or so plate trips and still ended up ±5 points around 100 OPS+. It's been a rough year for the guy.
He's our guy, and we got him for two more years after this, so I would be thrilled to be wrong and see him light it up when he comes back.