Investing

[Screwball]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

You get what you reward. I've said it here a million times, US corporate and tax law needs reform to take the profit away from the value extractors and give it back to the value generators. But it's another problem that doesn't lend itself to 30 second sound bites so gets no traction in US politics. All people understand is that they know things suck but they don't know why.

It's got nothing to do with tax law or politics. It all has to do with incompetent assholes who run and hire for our companies. The same clueless greedy assholes that took over academia and our government. They make the rules, they dictate policy, they make the decisions - good or bad. They are walking talking bull**** machines that couldn't pour piss out of a boot if the directions were on the bottom. Yet, they rule us.

And drive those of us who try to make the trains run on time crazy. Yearly review; you really need better people skills. You could have had another one half percent raise.

Really? For a ****ing half percent I will continue to be a prick, thank you.

End of review. Good, your wasting my time, I have to go save your worthless ass.

I sure as hell didn't design a car with a fuel pump in the gas tank or a starter under the intake manifold.

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Screwball said:

It all has to do with incompetent assholes who run and hire for our companies.

Too many of those guys stay in those positions because running those companies the way they do makes money for the people that keep them there. You see it all the time (like Boeing after all the MD people took over the corporate suites), good managements driven out by bad because the bad can turn better short term profits. Then yes -  it becomes the overall management culture everywhere.

[Screwball]

5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Too many of those guys stay in those positions because running those companies the way they do makes money for the people that keep them there. You see it all the time (like Boeing after all the MD people took over the corporate suites), good managements driven out by bad because the bad can turn better short term profits. Then yes -  it becomes the overall management culture everywhere.

The word culture took me back many years, a blast from the past you might say.

 

Years ago I was involved in a "skunk works" project for a multi-national corporation who supplied  the automotive business. The part of the process we (my department) did was shown to be the smallest hole in the hourglass of time to market. They put about 8 of us in a room for 2 years to reinvent the mousetrap. It was, at the time, a "six sigma" project theme. This was an industry in and of itself in many companies at that time. The entire goal was to save time from conception to the shipping dock.

 

There was a lead for this project, a young clean cut handsome guy who was going places. But the project was under my immediate boss. He was a **** of dicks. Anyway, we spent months interviewing people all over the company trying find out what they need, want, and would love to have. It was really a lot of fun. It was also, at the end of the day, show us where the problems are, and how to fix them. Our department was unique do the the amount of data we needed to manufacture into the product - correctly - liability laws and ambulance chasers are a bitch. We even had classes on what not to **** up.

 

After about a year, and our little skunk works room had thousands of sticky notes and poster boards on the wall and we finally find out what our problem really is. <drum roll> CULTURE

 

I wonder if the people who choreographed these classes discussed what happens when they find out the real problem is the system they helped create and the inept ****s who make us go through all this **** ARE the problem. It's the system, and that just the way it is. You will become a corporate robot ass kissing robot yes man or not have a job.

 

But in this case a funny. I don't remember what we went with instead of culture, but we had to play the game too. The people who knew how to make the trains run on time created a system in about 7 months that kicked some serious ass. Took a process that once took 6 weeks to less than two. Could take an order from sales and cut chips the same day. 

 

It won the company tech award that year. We got a raise, and stock (promptly sold). It saved them millions. It also won a JD Powers second place award in a national contest. Our CEO and his henchmen went to Vegas to accept the award. We could have went but declined. Why would I want to be around those dickheads?

 

My boss, **** of all dicks, of course went. The CEO and co went first class, boss had to fly coach, by himself.

 

Hahahahahahahahahaha

[Deleterious]

Help me, Jesus.  

I'm pretty much an atheist.  But we need some help from someone.

 

[gehringer_2]

when do we reach harmonic convergence between the gambling books and the crypto bros?

[Deleterious]

I will stick with the gamblers.  I understand and can explain that.  Plus, I made a lot of money doing it.  Pretty sure I would lose my butt trying to invest in Crypto.  

[Deleterious]

ADP print 54K vs 68K expected.  Some are saying 73K expected, either way its a miss.

That is private sector only, obviously.  

[Deleterious]

Stephen Miran is in front of the Senate today seeking confirmation for fed governor.  This is the seat left open when Kugler retired, not the seat Trump maybe opened up by firing Cook.

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Stephen Miran is in front of the Senate today seeking confirmation for fed governor.  This is the seat left open when Kugler retired, not the seat Trump maybe opened up by firing Cook.

The only thing I've read by MIran is that he says that reindustrialization needs to be led by defense spending. LOL - he complains that Biden's plans subsidized inefficient producers. He obviously doesn't know as much about defense procurement as he thinks he does.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Deleterious said:

I will stick with the gamblers.  I understand and can explain that.  Plus, I made a lot of money doing it.  Pretty sure I would lose my butt trying to invest in Crypto.  

Might as well invest in tulips. In that regard, it is the exact same thing.

[Deleterious]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Might as well invest in tulips. In that regard, it is the exact same thing.

How so?

[Deleterious]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

The only thing I've read by MIran is that he says that reindustrialization needs to be led by defense spending. LOL - he complains that Biden's plans subsidized inefficient producers. He obviously doesn't know as much about defense procurement as he thinks he does.

Depends on what he means by defense spending.

New planes/tanks/guns?  No.  Rebuilding our manufacturing base so we can build those things?  Yes.  Especially when it comes to ship building.  

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

How so?

Crypto has practically the same value as tulips did. In theory people can spend crypto like money, but in practice nobody does (unless they buy sketchy stuff on black and dark gray markets). Only 2% of people cops to actually spending crypto, so it trades on speculation alone, as in the Dutch tulip market of the mid-1630s. 

[ewsieg]

3 hours ago, Deleterious said:

ADP print 54K vs 68K expected.  Some are saying 73K expected, either way its a miss.

That is private sector only, obviously.  

Did a quick check and see that the largest ever was in March of 2022 where we added just over 12 million jobs.  As such, I expect the new Commissioner to come out tomorrow with Trump and report 12.5 million jobs added.  Trump will add 'Best jobs report evah, that's right, it's the best, just like me.  Some people said it couldn't be done, but look at me, I focused on getting the stats corrected last month, and it's the best numbers evah now.  So beautiful.'

[Screwball]

The ADP report was today. There is the weekly Dept. of Labor jobless claims report tomorrow at 8:30 am. Then Friday at 8:30 am will be the monthly non-farm payroll report by the BLS. Powell already admitted the labor market was weak and a rate cut is not off the table when they met a few weeks ago in Jackson Hole. The next Fed meeting is Sept. 17. If these job reports are weak, which I expect them to be, Powell and the FOMC will lower rates due to the job market. This is the opening and excuse to do so.

It will be great and the market will soar once again. Seems like insanity to me lowering rates when the markets are close to all time highs, but they have done it before;

Quote

Historical examples and recent data provide context:

 

1. 1995-1996 Easing Cycle: The Fed cut rates in July 1995 when the S&P 500 was near record highs, following a strong economic expansion. The cuts were modest (from 6% to 5.25% over 1995-1996) and aimed at achieving a "soft landing" to sustain growth without overheating. The stock market (Morningstar US Market Index) rose 21% in the 12 months following the first cut, supported by strong earnings and a favorable economic backdrop.
    

    

   
2. 2019 Rate Cuts: The Fed lowered rates three times in 2019 (from 2.5% to 1.75%) despite the S&P 500 being close to all-time highs. These cuts were driven by concerns over global trade tensions and slowing economic growth, not stock market levels. The market responded positively, with the S&P 500 gaining significantly through the year.
3. 2024-2025 Easing Cycle: The Fed began cutting rates in September 2024, starting with a 0.5% cut, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.75%-5.00%, followed by two 0.25% cuts, reaching 4.25%-4.50% by December 2024. The S&P 500 hit all-time highs multiple times in 2024 (at least 57 times, per PBS News) and was near highs in August 2025 when markets anticipated an 87% chance of a September 2025 cut. These cuts were motivated by a cooling labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) and inflation concerns (2.7% in November 2024), not stock market performance. The market’s reaction was mixed: stocks surged initially after the September 2024 cut but fell sharply (S&P 500 down 2.9%) after the December 2024 cut when the Fed signaled only two cuts for 2025, below market expectations.
    

    

   
    

    

   

I guess the good news is it will be cheaper to pay the interest on the 37 trillion dollar debt.

[Screwball]

I'm a day behind. The holiday on Monday must have shifted the ADP report to today. Jobless claims are also today (Thursday) like they always are.

Jobless clams from the BLS
 

Quote

 

Headline data;

In the week ending August 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 237,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 228,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending August 23, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 23 was 1,940,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 10,000 from 1,954,000 to 1,944,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,946,750, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,500 from 1,956,250 to 1,953,750.

 

 

[Deleterious]

CPI will be next Thursday.  A big spike could cause some people to pause on the rate cut.  

[Screwball]

Yes, good point, I forgot about that. Given the last PPI it might not be good. 

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Depends on what he means by defense spending.

New planes/tanks/guns?  No.  Rebuilding our manufacturing base so we can build those things?  Yes.  Especially when it comes to ship building.  

aircraft and shipbuilding almost prove the point. US DOD ship and airplane builders aren't competitive in any other markets. The specialization required to work with DOD almost preclude their ability to function in an ordinary market. Plus the whole market development paradigm is backward. To build a commercial business you have to be market savvy - develop products that will find a home in the broad market. Defense contracting is virtually the opposite. DOD develops performance and capability requirements internally and issues RFPs for manufacturers to supply them. It's not 100% one way but the basic relation between seller and buyer is fundamentally different. 

In term of a 'base' DOD spending is big, but not big enough to shift the overall manufacturing base of the economy, especially since most DOD procurement is already required to be domestic.

Edited yesterday at 07:33 PM by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

More interesting question.  Where was Lip-Bu Tan?  None of the articles I read listed him as attending.  

 

[RatkoVarda]

20 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Did a quick check and see that the largest ever was in March of 2022 where we added just over 12 million jobs.  As such, I expect the new Commissioner to come out tomorrow with Trump and report 12.5 million jobs added.  Trump will add 'Best jobs report evah, that's right, it's the best, just like me.  Some people said it couldn't be done, but look at me, I focused on getting the stats corrected last month, and it's the best numbers evah now.  So beautiful.'

LOL. BLS is having tech issues that is preventing it from releasing any bad numbers. They will drop one minute after closing bell and then Trump will invade Venezuela on Saturday.

Edit: Just released; not good, so maybe they did not fudge them too much.

Edited 10 hours ago by RatkoVarda

[Deleterious]

22k added on 75k expected. 

So a big miss on an already low expected number.

[gehringer_2]

Jobs number 22K, June revised to -13K, unemployment up 0.2 to 4.3. 

Trump's big beautiful re-industrialization? Durable goods employment down 19K

I guess they will have to post director of BLS as a monthly temp job after Trump fires another director today.

Edited 10 hours ago by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

16 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Jobs number 22K, June revised to -13K, unemployment up 0.2 to 4.3. 

Trump's big beautiful re-industrialization? Durable goods employment down 19K

I guess they will have to post director of BLS as a monthly temp job after Trump fires another director today.

Also per Joe Weisenthal, the US has lost 77k manufacturing jobs this year.

[mtutiger]

29 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

LOL. BLS is having tech issues that is preventing it from releasing any bad numbers. They will drop one minute after closing bell and then Trump will invade Venezuela on Saturday.

Edit: Just released; not good, so maybe they did not fudge them too much.

Worth noting that his pick to run BLS hasn't been seated yet and that the leadership is still interim.