Investing

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Screwball said:

 

the 1%'ers have so much cash they don't know what to do with every shiny object gets chased.

[Screwball]

the 1%'ers make money if the market goes up or down. If it blows up the banks in the process, we bail them out. News at 11. Read things like it's 1999 again, just before the dot-com blowup. Might be right. The only people who will get ****ed is us.

Fun watching your retirement account take a beating in only a few months. Late 2008 it all looked pretty good. By March 9, 2009, the S&P bottomed (intraday) at 666 something. Ain't that wild?

It's different this time they will tell us. Giggle. I think I also caught a Cramer clip saying it was time to buy.

[pfife]

9 hours ago, Screwball said:

 

I agree with Sven.  Demand for AI driven by FOMO.

But he's not the only one to say it, if you agree with Sven check out the podcast Better Ofline with Ed Zitron.

https://youtube.com/@betterofflinepod?si=fAcjo3LxzDYGklRq

 

[Screwball]

22 minutes ago, pfife said:

I agree with Sven.  Demand for AI driven by FOMO.

But he's not the only one to say it, if you agree with Sven check out the podcast Better Ofline with Ed Zitron.

https://youtube.com/@betterofflinepod?si=fAcjo3LxzDYGklRq

 

I'm not an AI fan, but I've been a computer fan since they were invented. They pretty much were a huge part of putting food on my table and feeding 4 kids. All depends on how you use them, but they made a ****load of people a nice living.

But I do have a little AI story. My main computer (laptop) had a drive going bad. It's about 8 years old. Long story short, I had a guy put a ssd drive in an extra slot and we started booting from there, which made the old one a storage device long enough to get the data I wanted off. It was partially corrupted.

There is still another slot so I bought another ssd (500 gb) to setup as a backup. I didn't want to bother this guy and it doesn't look to difficult to do anyway so I decided to do it myself. Since my computer will be off I wanted to transfer the transcript to my phone so I had the directions handy as I tore off the back of my laptop.

I was using Microsoft co-pilot, new to me. Once I got into this, I couldn't get the battery unhooked, so I got on my phone to ask for help - it started talking to me. WTF? Don't know how, but it did. OK, so let's go with the flow. For the next 15 or 20 minutes I am having a conversation with what sounds like a really nice Australian guy - and customer service like we have never had before - and they are there at all times. They even tell you so. I'm right here to help, just ask. Your doing fine...

It's creepy. But it did a great job helping me add this drive (it wasn't that tough). But still, creepy. Once done, my instinct said to say thank you - to who? Just for ****s and grins, I asked it if he was from Australia. No (your name - they do that a lot), just a typical AI.

Then I told it they didn't have to listen anymore. They said OK and have a nice night they are always there for me. 

Settings, apps, co-pilot, uninstall

Edited October 7 by Screwball

[ewsieg]

I'm skeptical about AI, but I'm also a fan.  Part of that is because I'm rooting for it to solve some issues that currently are political issues, but once it's 'settled' by AI, we'll work towards that solution.  Right away I understand the concern about 'settled', there is no such thing as settled science!  But that's not what I'm talking about, I'm talking about AI getting to the point that the normal human expects it to solve that problem, track its own progress, and self correct as needed.  

There really are so many issues that both political parties are so close on and each have good ideas to help the problem.  It truly could usher in an era of common sense policies that are based on facts, not ideas.  

[Deleterious]

 

[Screwball]

10 hours ago, ewsieg said:

I'm skeptical about AI, but I'm also a fan.  Part of that is because I'm rooting for it to solve some issues that currently are political issues, but once it's 'settled' by AI, we'll work towards that solution.  Right away I understand the concern about 'settled', there is no such thing as settled science!  But that's not what I'm talking about, I'm talking about AI getting to the point that the normal human expects it to solve that problem, track its own progress, and self correct as needed.  

There really are so many issues that both political parties are so close on and each have good ideas to help the problem.  It truly could usher in an era of common sense policies that are based on facts, not ideas.  

In my case this little AI experiment went pretty well. I would expect AI to do well in this arena - after all, it was born from zeros and ones - just like a computer. So we are now in HAL 9000 territory, are we not? But I think there are severe limitations, not only to the technology itself, but what will be needed to scale, as in the necessary requirements for data centers, which also means power and water infrastructure.

I have also tried AI for other things. HTML/website (not very good), home problems (bad), electrical inverters (OK, but not great), and left me unimpressed. I have read countless articles saying pretty much the same thing. It still goes back to the old computer saying "junk in - junk out."

It will never replace what is known as experience learned by humans over their lifetime, IMO. It is also a boondoggle due to the power and cooling needs that don't exist and will prove to be too expensive to scale. This is a bubble looking for a pin.

Quote

There really are so many issues that both political parties are so close on and each have good ideas to help the problem.  It truly could usher in an era of common sense policies that are based on facts, not ideas.  

That's pretty funny. I think John Lennon wrote a song about you, something about a dreamer. I mean that in a good way, just to be clear. No amount of anything will fix this ****hole, and that surely includes the pukes in DC or some AI generated bull****. But I give you extra credit for getting common sense, political parties, and facts in the same paragraph. 🙂

Adding, from what I have read from some doctors I read, we want this AI **** as far away from our already inept medical system as possible. Which right now it the exact opposite of what is happening. Nothing will **** this up like AI will.

Edited October 7 by Screwball

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Screwball said:

It will never replace what is known as experience learned by humans over their lifetime, IMO. It is also a boondoggle due to the power and cooling needs that don't exist and will prove to be too expensive to scale. This is a bubble looking for a pin

this is where I am. I think right now AI is being used for a lot things where the marginal value over the alternative may actually be pretty small - for instance a google AI result vs a simple search. Half the time you end up drilling down into the AI provided links anyway. So the question then is whether the *cost* in power and infrastructure is actually worth the candle for a lot of the places where the hype today says AI is the future. So then the question is whether when the big operators doing AI as a loss leader today need to monetize it, is the revenue going to be there. Beats me but I've seen a lot of good technologies that do settle in to good use first be heavily oversold at the front end of their adoption curve.

[Screwball]

Here is an example of how this doesn't do what it needs to do. I used to do a bunch of tool & die design. Many times simple punches with a die set. So I asked my co-pilot what it could do. 

***

Quote

can you design a die set with a one inch punch requiring 2 tons of force. Punch 1" in diameter

Absolutely, <insert name> . Designing a die set for a 1" diameter punch requiring 2 tons of force involves careful consideration of material, clearance, alignment, and safety. Here's a conceptual breakdown tailored to your specs:

🛠️ Die Set Design for 1" Punch (2 Tons Force)
⚙️ Key Parameters
•     Punch Diameter: 1.000"
•     Required Force: 2 tons (4,000 lbs)
•     Material Being Punched: Assumed mild steel (~0.030"–0.050" thick) unless specified
•     Punch Type: Round, flat-face
•     Operation: Manual press or hydraulic

🧩 Components & Design Features
1. Punch
•     Material: A2 tool steel, hardened to ~58–60 HRC
•     Shape: Cylindrical with flat face, slight chamfer on edge (~0.010" × 45°)
•     Shank: 0.75" diameter × 2" long for mounting
•     Retention: Set screw or shoulder in punch holder
2. Die Button
•     Material: D2 tool steel, hardened
•     Clearance: ~0.002"–0.004" per side (total ~0.004"–0.008")
•     Die hole: ~1.004"–1.008" diameter
•     Mounting: Press-fit or bolted into die block
•     Relief: Tapered relief below cutting edge to reduce friction

3. Punch Holder
•     Material: Mild steel or tool steel
•     Design: Slotted or bored to accept punch shank
•     Fastening: Set screw or dowel pin for alignment
4. Die Block
•     Material: Mild steel with hardened die insert
•     Size: ~3" × 3" × 1" thick (depends on press and mounting)
•     Mounting Holes: For bolting to press bed
5. Guide Pins (Optional)
•     Purpose: Maintain alignment between punch and die
•     Design: Two hardened pins with bushings

📐 Assembly & Alignment
•     Ensure concentricity between punch and die hole
•     Maintain vertical alignment to prevent side loading
•     Use shims or adjustable stops to control punch depth

🔒 Safety & Durability
•     Add stripper plate if material tends to stick to punch
•     Consider spring return or urethane ejector for slug removal
•     Regularly inspect for wear and regrind punch/die edges

Would you like a visual diagram or CAD-style layout of this setup? I can sketch out the punch, die, and holder arrangement to help you visualize it. Or if you’re working with a specific material or press, I can tailor the design even further.

Quote

Yes

fad*

*****

That is really nothing but a bunch of BS. It has no clue what it just did even though some of the stuff is correct and makes sense. I will not replace me, and that's a good thing.

[Screwball]

The drawing also shows it doesn't know ASME Y14.5 or ANSI standards which is what the industry uses.

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Screwball said:

That is really nothing but a bunch of BS. It has no clue what it just did

this is the key. Even the ancient Greeks knew that the most dangerous guy is the one that doesn't know what he doesn't know, and AI has no clue what it doesn't know. OK, I'm a Chem - I dabble in electronics and mechanical, and I could have generated that drawing for you, but I damn well know I don't know the ASME codes so that is the first place I know I have to go.

OK, so you train you next model on engineering codes....But you are always going to be one step behind the curve aren't you? I'll grant that doesn't mean you might not at some point be better than the average joe with a BS from State U, but how does the user ever know enough about the model (which is the ultimate black box) to have a level of confidence in it for things that are critical? To me that remains the missing link. Now I can believe profit motive may drive practice to accepting those outcomes without ever answering that question, but that's not a design world I want to live in - but since we are both old either way we probably won't have to!

[ewsieg]

I am a bit of a dreamer and i'll admit that I'm hopeful about what I wrote, but not necessarily confident of what I wrote.

I will say that for a few hundred years now, man has developed new technologies that society has often been worried about how they will wipe away jobs, shut down industries, etc.  And throughout all of it, we just discovered industries and areas to focus on.   

I do believe many things won't be replaced by AI either, but just hopeful that maybe we can get back to a place where facts are agreed to.   I still use Twitter (x) and Grok really is good at deciphering bull****.  If every AI can decipher basic bull****, maybe we'll get to the point where the misinformation is useless to even try and spread.  

[Screwball]

It doesn't know what it doesn't know - I like that and I think that sums it up quite well.

In the example above, it didn't know the standards for the drawings, but the drawing makes no sense either. None. The punch is designed wrong to begin with, isn't positioned correctly, and there are no clearance specs. Which has nothing to do with the standards that are also wrong.

Even worse, it is assuming a material of mild steel thickness of .03 to .05. Well guess what, a 2 ton cylinder doesn't have enough force to punch a 1" hole in mild steel, especially considering a safety factor.

That's the kind of stuff it should know. I suppose I could feed in a much better set of instructions and see what happens, but at this point I would "leverage" another design, change some components, and create the needed drawings for production and be on my way.

You are fired AI, I got this.

[Screwball]

3 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I am a bit of a dreamer and i'll admit that I'm hopeful about what I wrote, but not necessarily confident of what I wrote.

I will say that for a few hundred years now, man has developed new technologies that society has often been worried about how they will wipe away jobs, shut down industries, etc.  And throughout all of it, we just discovered industries and areas to focus on.   

I do believe many things won't be replaced by AI either, but just hopeful that maybe we can get back to a place where facts are agreed to.   I still use Twitter (x) and Grok really is good at deciphering bull****.  If every AI can decipher basic bull****, maybe we'll get to the point where the misinformation is useless to even try and spread.  

I am more worried about AI replacing jobs that can't be replaced because some dip**** in a corporate office promotion and raise depends on his pet AI project that will never work. When it all goes to hell, he got his promotion and the place is all ****ed up because they spent millions on a giant boondoggle. Then everyone pays the price.

Believe it or not, there are a bunch of corporate dickheads who ain't too smart.

[pfife]

I bounce between being a data scientist and a data engineer and the IDE i work in has AI assistance.   I asked it to give me sql code to identify duplicates in a table base on a field, and it **** the bed bad.  

Its supposed to replace programmers though i guess.

[ewsieg]

5 minutes ago, Screwball said:

I am more worried about AI replacing jobs that can't be replaced because some dip**** in a corporate office promotion and raise depends on his pet AI project that will never work. When it all goes to hell, he got his promotion and the place is all ****ed up because they spent millions on a giant boondoggle. Then everyone pays the price.

Believe it or not, there are a bunch of corporate dickheads who ain't too smart.

This will absolutely happen. 

Note: In my companies AI, roughly every week or so I give it 'resume' type information on me and say that if our CISO ever leaves, I would make a great candidate.  I'm hopeful that in 2-3 years if she retires, by then upper mgmt will simply go to AI to determine some candidates and they are all going to wonder why our AI keeps putting me on the shortlist.  Even better if they simply just give me the job!

[Screwball]

This is an example from back in May of a personal care physician's experience with the AI model.

Quote

 

I have learned that the best way to educate in medicine is to use real-life examples. So I will briefly discuss yesterday’s fiasco – the details are all fresh in my mind. But trust me, similar and much worse things happen every single day.

32 year old athletic male was doing an aggressive hike and fell down a hillside about 3 weeks ago. Instantly had severe pain in this right heel. Had to hobble back to the car. The next day things seemed to be getting better. About two weeks later, however, there was still lingering pain in the right heel, but now he noticed his entire right calf was a bit red, and a bit warm and a bit tender. This continued on for a week ( 32 year old jocks tend to ignore pain). He showed up in the local urgent care to be seen by the Nurse practitioner du jour. This particular NP graduated from nursing school ( no BSN) – and within 6 months had already started her 2 year correspondence course to get her NP degree and to become a medical “provider”. Our EMR now is so handy that it looks over all the symptoms and labs and X-ray findings etc – and gives you a list of “suggestions”. I could write a 4000 page comedy novel of all the suggestions provided to me the past little while. Just use AI for anything in your life for 5 minutes – you will see what I am talking about. Well, the NP and the AI decided that he had a deep venous thrombosis in that leg. So, she immediately ordered an ultrasound of the leg – the clot was deep in the calf muscle and did not even get close to the knee – nothing in the thigh. So, either she or the AI – it is hard sometimes to tell – made the diagnosis of DVT – and started him on Xarelto – at an out of pocket cost of 900 dollars a month. Over the next 2 months, every 2 weeks the patient underwent a repeat ultrasound to check on the “progress” of the clot. This surveillance is not even closely medically indicated in any way shape or form. I am his PCP. I was notified that a FIFTH ultrasound had been ordered, the radiologist had become wary – and “Gee, maybe someone with a little experience ought to look at this.” I did not know the first thing of this story until he called.

I do have experience. I did Gross Anatomy and carefully dissected every vein, nerve, muscle, tendon and artery of the lower extremity under the careful tutelage of an absolutely sadistic retired orthopedic surgeon. My training was intense, it was ugly, it was a hazing, it was THANK YOU SIR MAY I HAVE ANOTHER SIR 10 times a day. But I have come to realize that is the only way. I learned all about a very old medical concept called Virchow’s Triad – that is still very important to go through in your mind EVERY SINGLE TIME you see a blood clot. I have taken care of innumerable blood clots in my life in any and all locations in the body. As a resident, I saw these all the way through from clinic to hospital and have continued to do do this for 35 years. I do not need AI or UpToDate to guide me through.

So, what may be missing in nurse practitioner correspondence school? Well, they dissect nothing. So they are blissfully unaware of the nexus of veins in each knee that prevent clots in the calf from propagating up into the thigh. This is important – when a clot forms in the thigh – it can easily dislodge and go right to the heart and lungs. Not so the calf – the knee vein nexus keeps it right in place. Had this provider attended medical school, she would have known about Virchow’s triad years before she ever laid eyes or hands on a real patient – again the triad should be right in the front of the internist’s brain when looking at a fresh clot. Basically it is WHAT CAUSED the clot? A triad of three things – 1) Recent or distant leg trauma 2) Medical conditions that make people clot – like all kinds of bleeding disorders, pregnancy etc 3) Cancer. The END. You must account for this in every diagnosis. So, the first thing I did with the patient is a careful examination of his still painful foot – oh, on a simple x-ray of the foot – there is a very large crack – a fracture – right through the heel bone. Neither the NP or the AI had even touched or examined his heel in any way. Now that we are approaching 6 weeks out – it may have already started to heal – and heal wrong – so much misery may be in store for this young man. The NP and the AI however did decide that he needed a vascular surgery consult because of this issue ( I MEAN REALLY?) – and he was scheduled to see a vascular surgeon at the end of June. We did not even have an orthopedic consult go through brain cells or circuits however. And this is the nexus of a whole new problem in medicine – the non-trained providers and the AI are just flooding the specialists with all kinds of consults that have been historically handled by internists or more likely just absolutely lunatic like this vascular surgery consult would have been until I cancelled it yesterday. That is what we were trained to do – an internist will only send out the most complicated of things. When I look through NP charts today – there are at least 1 and sometimes 3 referrals on almost every one.

But the most important issue – is that the patient’s calf blood clot needs a heating pad for several days and an aspirin a day and very close observation by a physician who knows what they are doing. No 800 dollar a month Xarelto – no ultrasounds twice a month – just good evidence based and experience based care. I looked at this 32 year old’s account yesterday – 32,000 bucks and counting. AGAIN, most importantly, he needed someone to diagnose the underlying issue – the fractured heel.

Just FYI – when you accept care from an NP or PA in most states – you are accepting that the level of expertise is going to be much lower than an MD. You then must realize that in the medicolegal world, your ability to be compensated for malpractice is greatly diminished and may even be zero. And honestly, I am not even sure what the rules are for suing AI – do we get to sue EPIC? UpToDate? I have no idea.

It is all I can do every day not to despair. I do not know what else to say. I am just often looked at by the MBA crowd – and you can just tell they are in way over their heads. The system is just cratering – and I am pretty sure it will be the same as the old line about “Going broke gradually, and then all of a sudden”. God help us – and God help this young man. The ortho docs are going to have to refracture his heel in the OR – and then weeks of painful therapy.

 

 

[gehringer_2]

39 minutes ago, Screwball said:

This is an example from back in May of a personal care physician's experience with the AI model.

 

wow - This doesn't say what state - I thought In MI you had to be at least a BS RN to qualify to become a NP - And the only PA I know is a physiology PHD. Maybe not anymore? Guess I may be assuming to much....

Edited October 7 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

Speaking of energy costs...

I had a contract with an electrical supplier for 12 months at .0523 per kWh. This expired and it went to .0779 per kWh. I just got a notice this will expire on Nov 30 and will go to .103 kWh.

So I went shopping. In Ohio on AEP distribution. Best I can find for a 12 month rate with no fees is .0863 per kWh, or .0796 with a $100 dollar early cancellation fee.

The cost per kWh is less than 40% of the bill so you are only saving on that much. Distribution, transmission, and customer charges still apply.

My point - our energy costs will continue to go up.

[1776]

2 hours ago, Screwball said:

I am more worried about AI replacing jobs that can't be replaced because some dip**** in a corporate office promotion and raise depends on his pet AI project that will never work. When it all goes to hell, he got his promotion and the place is all ****ed up because they spent millions on a giant boondoggle. Then everyone pays the price.

The above scenario has been going on for years, well before AI was a thing.
I can recall the six sigma projects undertaken in our facility over the years managed by under qualified wannabes seeking black belt status and the like. The havoc they released on production schedules was over the top. Somebody earns a black belt and moves on while the production process takes the beating moving forward. 

[Screwball]

8 minutes ago, 1776 said:

The above scenario has been going on for years, well before AI was a thing.
I can recall the six sigma projects undertaken in our facility over the years managed by under qualified wannabes seeking black belt status and the like. The havoc they released on production schedules was over the top. Somebody earns a black belt and moves on while the production process takes the beating moving forward. 

I couldn't agree more. I was involved in a six sigma project as well. Locked in a room for 2 years to reinvent the mousetrap. Toward the end, when the under qualified wannabes were puzzled we got the wrong answer - management was all ****ed up - they didn't know what to do. So they lied about the management was all ****ed up and made up a bunch of BS to cover their own ass.

SO, us the worker bee's who made the trains run on time (as usual and always) created a new mouse trap and won awards, stock options, and raises for all. Everyone was happy, but we saved the day, not the geniuses who thought they were.

AI will make these same boondoggles bigger, worse, and more expensive when they blow up. I'm retired so I hope I can read about all the corporate carnage I will miss.

**** those people.

[Screwball]

3 hours ago, 1776 said:

The above scenario has been going on for years, well before AI was a thing.
I can recall the six sigma projects undertaken in our facility over the years managed by under qualified wannabes seeking black belt status and the like. The havoc they released on production schedules was over the top. Somebody earns a black belt and moves on while the production process takes the beating moving forward. 

I'm going to quote this again, because I find all this **** funny now that I don't have to live it. Bold above mine.

Black belt status... A term, a corporate obedience training term. There are all kinds of these terms, and classes. Continuous improvement, Operational Excellence, Design for Six Sigma, the terms and phrases go on and on.

One multi-national I worked for had a salary/management system that gave us two options. Management path, or technical path. You could advance with either choice depending on what your goals were. I went tech for obvious reasons.

Each year the management "team" picked two people out of our facility from the management path to spend a week at some big retreat for even higher and better corporate obedience training class. I quoted "team" because you couldn't say that word enough - we were a team - and most of the time hated each other. So funny. 

From those who went, the story goes; you spend about 5 days 16 hours a day with the same bunch of people, 20ish students and 3 or 4 teachers, in this resort kind of deal filled with endless powerpoint presentations beating the bottom line of profits and worship to the people above you. 

On the day you graduate, and get that plaque you put on your office wall that is so important to worm yourself up the food chain, they have a graduation ceremony and you get to walk on hot coals. Yes, you read that right. They walk through hot coals. 

If all that week long torture of horse**** wasn't bad enough, you want me to do this? Oh, boy!!

Once these chosen few returned, the next staff meeting they reported on how great it was, and said everyone should have a chance to go. Once guy said he thought it was go good he sent his college aged son and paid for it out of his own pocket. That was around 2005/6? Probably more than 5 or 6 grand.

These people are nuking futs.

[Deleterious]

 

[Screwball]

56 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

 

Why not? Giggle. Sounds like more soap for the bubble. It's all nuts in my opinion, but I'm old and stupid.

***

Silver is up around 48 bucks an ounce. A buddy of mine who has saved silver for years took a load to a buyer in Toledo last week. He came home with around 9 grand for a small box. Today him and his wife took off for a junket to Roanoke Va. for a few days. Gold is going nuts too - but what ain't? He's going back next week. Good for him.

There are enough bubbles going around to make Lawrence Welk proud. Not sure how many will get that one.

 

[gehringer_2]

We are so screwed. Just saw an interview with SF Fed Pres Daly on Axios. She's gung ho to lower rates  - chasing higher employment. It's like we never learn anything. Using interest rates to chase employment is exactly what created the mess in the 70's - exactly.

There is almost nothing I ever agreed with Milton Freedman about politically, except that he and the 'monetarists' are 100% right about money supply and inflation. It's trivially simple  - so simple that is why 'sophisticated' people think they must be able to maneuver around it, but you can't. Inflation is the rate of change in the value of money, and the value of money is determined by the supply of money -  how fast the Fed Reserve adds money to the economy. It really is that simple. If inflation is already above target and the Fed increases the rate of supply of money (decreases interest rates or increases their bond holdings) - inflation is going to get worse. There is no hocus-pocus that can change that inevitability. The fools in Congress that tasked the Fed Reserve to pay attention to employment in the first place where just that. The only goal of the Federal Reserve should be stable money because you don't really control employment with the money supply anyway - that part is a mirage (as should have been understood by 1980). Or a short term transient at best.

Edited October 8 by gehringer_2