Time to blow this team up? Or stay the course?

[AlaskanTigersFan]

Well, thoughts? Is it time to go continue rebuilding? I mentioned a few months ago about trading Larkin... Does it make sense? Part of me thinks they are just ho hum with a lot of B level prospects on the horizon and not many true "game changers". Is it time to trade Larkin and whoever they can for some A level prospects? Or just stay the course?

[gehringer_2]

I know it's hard to score good players after the 1st round in the NHL draft, but how much worse? Is Yzerman's staff achieving at least better than average results? If not it's time to face some changes there. You must have an above average draft operation to get better in a cap league. 

I don't know how many seasons it would take before I could watch the Wings if they traded Larkin - he's been about the only reason to watch this team play for last 4 yrs. But it may be the only way for them to get unstuck. But I can guarantee you that playing for these bad teams and coaches has discounted his value to where we won't get equal value back for him. OTOH, he could have a great finish to his career somewhere else, which he deserves.

Edited November 12 by gehringer_2

[buddha]

still too early.

[slothfacekilla]

With how this season has gone, I can't even imagine the amount of whinging from the fan base if they blew this team up to start all over on the rebuild. 

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, slothfacekilla said:

With how this season has gone, I can't even imagine the amount of whinging from the fan base if they blew this team up to start all over on the rebuild. 

Yzerman won't blow it up, he's just going to keep sticking with it and working incrementally. That's his MO. It would take a move by ownership to dump SY before a teardown happens, and that doesn't seem likely either. We fan's can only hope that in the next couple of seasons Mazur, Danielson and Cossa all hit. If not it will be getting to be a long drought.

Three players are enough to lift a hockey team if they are all upgrades. Those three would make 8 home grown decent or better players plus DeBrincat.

[Dan Gilmore]

How soon would ASP be up?

[Hongbit]

You left out fire the coach right now and hope that creates a spark.  That’s a very popular option in the NHL.  It worked wonders for Edmonton last year.  

[slothfacekilla]

1 hour ago, Dan Gilmore said:

How soon would ASP be up?

I think he'll get a cup of coffee next season after starting in the AHL, though Petry is off the books this offseason so they'll need another defenseman somehow.  Yzerman said last offseason he expects him to spend one more season in the SHL (this current season).   Skelleftea has been having some drama this season so I wouldn't be shocked if ASP and MBN are both looking for other options next season.  With the Wings wanting MBN to play in Grand Rapids this season I'm hoping they view him as potentially ready next season too.

 

[Dan Gilmore]

Thanks.

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, Hongbit said:

You left out fire the coach right now and hope that creates a spark.  That’s a very popular option in the NHL.  It worked wonders for Edmonton last year.  

To me there are two reasons to fire the coach: One, you think you are close or maybe there talent wise and a new voice will be able to get the team into a little overdrive that will end up in a big season, which to me is your spark idea. Wings don't seem to be close enough for that to be a workable strategy. But the second reason is just that you decide your guy isn't good enough at what he need to be achieving, and I could see Lalonde getting the boot over that because we just aren't seeing much growth/improvement in any of the players on this team under his watch or much improvement in their style or precision of play over that last couple years either. OK, they are marginally better at keeping the other team wide when in their own zone, but it's come at the same time that every bit of offensive flair seems to have drained away. The team has to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.

[slothfacekilla]

I've come around to firing Lalonde with how uninspiring the team's play can be for starts of games and long stretches.  Plus I find his in zone defensive coverage systems a bit weird at times.  Mostly it is more of a "it can't get any worse" feeling for me to try something, I don't know.  I guess I don't feel super strongly either way about keeping or canning him.

[lordstanley]

You only blow a team up if you have confidence the front office can successfully draft and develop players. So far the Yzerman regime hasn’t proven that. Remember the optimism in having 4 picks in the first 2 rounds in each of 2019 and 2020? Yeah, those six 2nd rounders contributed zilch. Nothing from 2021 below the 1st round will move the needle either - guys like Mazur who score 37 pts in the AHL in their 3rd season after being drafted MIGHT make an NHL roster and stick some day but likely a fringe add at best.  This isn’t the NFL and Yzerman isn’t Holmes - can’t expect a few NHLers from each draft. So if we blow it up, we could be sitting here 5 years from now having added two gems equivalent to another Raymond amd Seider, a few promising prospects and a bunch of busts. 
 

If anything, the Wings might be better off trading all their 2-7th rounders for 2025 and 2026 for players further along. If you can’t break through by drafting and developing, you have to go to Plan B and try to do so by trades and signings, which is probably going to be riskier and more expensive but what other choices are there?

Edited November 15 by lordstanley

[slothfacekilla]

I think people really underestimate how hard it is to identify talent, develop them, and get them to the NHL quickly in the draft outside of the first half of the first round.  Even if you look at the back half of the first round in these three drafts they are littered with misses and marginal players, let alone the rounds after that.  Plus for the most part teams aren't giving up huge NHL talents in trades for just draft picks (or at all), so unless you're looking to fill the team with more Andrew Copp's I'm not sure it is a great strategy to trade your picks away even if you've randomly decided you somehow can't draft at all.  And that's still ignoring all the cap space you're forgoing with players' controlled rookie contracts.

 

 

Edited November 15 by slothfacekilla

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, slothfacekilla said:

I think people really underestimate how hard it is to identify talent, develop them, and get them to the NHL

Granted it's hard, but whether it's hard or easy the standard has to be to do it least do it marginally better than the guys you're competing against.

BTW - have we written off Wallinder?

Edited November 15 by gehringer_2

[Shinzaki]

Wallinder has been hurt..only played 5 games this year.  Heard Buium has looked decent at GR

[lordstanley]

5 hours ago, slothfacekilla said:

I think people really underestimate how hard it is to identify talent, develop them, and get them to the NHL quickly in the draft outside of the first half of the first round.  Even if you look at the back half of the first round in these three drafts they are littered with misses and marginal players, let alone the rounds after that.  Plus for the most part teams aren't giving up huge NHL talents in trades for just draft picks (or at all), so unless you're looking to fill the team with more Andrew Copp's I'm not sure it is a great strategy to trade your picks away even if you've randomly decided you somehow can't draft at all.  And that's still ignoring all the cap space you're forgoing with players' controlled rookie contracts.

 

 

I agree it’s hard to draft and develop. So I also think people on HFBoards for example overvalue 2nd draft picks and prospect pools. And sure, you need luck. I don’t think Yzerman has been a lousy GM, but you sure look better if you have good luck and he hasn’t good that. 

- You’d think odds are that one of the six 2nd round picks in 2019-2020 would at least yield an equivalent to other non-1st round picks of years past like Hronek, Bertuzzi or AA. Didn’t happen 

- You’d hope to get lucky and have one of the many players you bought low on - Fabbri, Vrana, Walman, Ghostisbehere, Sprong, Kubalik - revive his career with the Wings and stick long-term. Nope, all gone for nothing. 

- Could pickups of Nedjlkovic and Husso, which both looked like great deals at the time, land your starting goalie? Nah, neither worked out  

- You’d think a couple of your top 10 picks would outperform his draft position, like Quinn Hughes did in Vancouver. Ok# 6 Seider did, although he is no Quinn Hughes. Maybe Edvinsson will. Raymond is about what you expect from a #4. Too early to say on Kasper, although at this point he’s as close to Rasmussen as he is to being a star  

i guess you keep trying  I think Yzerman has had the right idea at many times, they just haven’t panned out as of yet  

 

 

Edited November 15 by lordstanley

[slothfacekilla]

I certainly haven't written off Wallinder but I tend to be higher on guys than most (I mean just check out this post...).  But he's only 22, seems to have filled out his frame a little bit and he was slated to get big minutes with GR pre-injury.  This is only his second season in GR too, but this season and the next will give us a good indication of where he's headed I would imagine.  His range of outcomes is still very wide in my opinion.  Last season it seemed like they had him working on his defensive side so we'll see if the offensive stuff opens up at all.  At least it seemed like he acclimated fine to the smaller ice.

I think we'll finally see some later picks contributing soon (or I hope).  Dmitri Buchelnikov is near a PPG in his second full season in the KHL (first season with Vityaz) still only 21.  His contract is going to keep him overseas longer, but he did train in Detroit this past offseason so fingers crossed.  Mazur should join the team's middle / bottom six in the next couple of seasons.  He's even showed that his shot plays more than I thought it would in the AHL.  Amadeus Lombardi looks really good in Grand Rapids this season, if he puts on a little bulk I could see him hanging in the NHL in the next couple of seasons.  Jesse Kiiskinen was on a tear before his injury over in Europe.  Now I will go full prospect homer and say even Elmer Soderblom has looked kinda.... good? in the Griffins clips I've seen this season.  These taller guys take a lot longer to get used to their bodies, but I had kinda written him off at this point, but maybe there's something there.  He's already had NHL games so if he keeps up good play I think he's a good candidate to take a roster spot.

And I would be shocked if Danielson and MBN aren't there in a season or 2, hopefully ASP joins them among the first rounders.  Cossa looks on track to put himself in the backup mix next season.  We have to hope most of the roster spots opened up the next two offseasons by Motte, Fischer, Tarasenko, Petry, Lyon, Husso, Chiarot, Holl, Gustafsson and Kane stay free for these guys (Berggren, Johansson and Veleno have RFA deals expiring too).  I would hope that Yzerman would see the prospects as far enough along to do that this time.  At the very least, as you can see with that list of names up there they're positioned to transition from this current roster based on contract expiration.  If they want to...

 

 

I don't disagree with much of anything that's been said in here, it sucks they don't have a better roster right now, but I am hopeful moving forward.  Probably means I'm a sucker but what can you do.

 

 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, lordstanley said:

Could pickups of Nedjlkovic

Did they maybe cut bait on Ned too soon though? He hasn't bee great since we moves him but at least he's been available, as compared to say Husso.

Edited November 15 by gehringer_2

[lordstanley]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Did they maybe cut bait on Ned too soon though? He hasn't bee great since we moves him but at least he's been available, as compared to say Husso.

Goalies are such wildcards. There are a handful that are above average for years, but there a bunch of others whose stats bounce up and down seemingly at random. I'm sure that the defense you're playing behind and the quality of the shots you see has something to do with that. Not all save % are created equal, let alone goals against average. 

[Shinzaki]

I thought they might take a step back this year...this feels more like two.  

Sellers at the deadline...Kane, Tarasenko, Chiarot...et al..

[Motor City Sonics]

Try a new coach first.   

[lordstanley]

I’m not opposed to firing the coach - in fact I was open to during the shocking collapse last March - but not sure it would make much difference. I don’t see oodles of talent on this roster waiting to be unlocked. Lalonde was a Yzerman hire and firing him would be an admission that the Yzerplan isn’t exactly going as planned. 

[buddha]

4 hours ago, lordstanley said:

I’m not opposed to firing the coach - in fact I was open to during the shocking collapse last March - but not sure it would make much difference. I don’t see oodles of talent on this roster waiting to be unlocked. Lalonde was a Yzerman hire and firing him would be an admission that the Yzerplan isn’t exactly going as planned. 

last year was a puck luck fluke.  this year has been the opposite as they turn back into the gang that cant shoot straight.

nothing excuses that collapse in anaheim.  that was pathetic.  

i hate the way they play.  i dont know if that's on lalonde or the lack of talent or both.  i tend to blame yzerman more than lalonde.

but really, a grown man who still goes by "newsy" has some issues.

[gehringer_2]

35 minutes ago, buddha said:

i dont know if that's on lalonde or the lack of talent or both

What I don't understand at all is that when Lalonde arrived, I thought the team's play took a real step forward - much improved offensive flow etc., yet as time has gone by they seem to have turned right back into the team we fired Blashill for. So how does that happen? Has Yzerman leaned on Lalonde to have the team play more pedantically? Of so why not just leave Blashill there? Have Yzerman's moves with the roster actually left Lalonde with a team that can't do what the team he had 3 yrs ago could? Not good news if that is true.  The whole progression - or lack thereoff, is hard for me to figure. Sure they are waiting for players, but what kind of team are they trying to build - where is it going? Right now everything seems ad hoc - like a bunch of pieces that don't fit together.

Edited November 16 by gehringer_2

[Motor City Sonics]

7 hours ago, lordstanley said:

I’m not opposed to firing the coach - in fact I was open to during the shocking collapse last March - but not sure it would make much difference. I don’t see oodles of talent on this roster waiting to be unlocked. Lalonde was a Yzerman hire and firing him would be an admission that the Yzerplan isn’t exactly going as planned. 

A new coach wouldn't make a difference?    I strongly disagree with that.    But, it would probably be a situation where the next one that comes in is going to need to be a bit of a ****.   I have seen teams in hockey, as well as baseball, nearly instantly turn around when that kind of manager/coach comes in, but it usually is a short term coach as the initial push will grind on everyone in a few months.    Still really early in the season, but where nearing the quarter mark here and if there isn't some spark by then (Mid December) this season will be lost.    You can look to the St. Louis Blues from a few years ago as an extreme example.   Craig Berube came in and cracked down on everyone and got them all the way to a Cup victory.    Mike Keenan and Joel Quenville did that too, but Keenan didn't make any friends (and didn't care).   This team just looks lost and while they let a lot of goals walk out the door in the offseason, there is no excuse for being this flat.  None at all.  There is talent there, it's just not being used or guided right.    Again, I bring up Gerard Gallant's name.  He never lasts long, but he does light a fire under guys.   I just don't know if there is some rift between he and Stevie or maybe Stevie does not want to hire a personal friend that he knows he'll probably end up having to fire.   

The pressure builds too.  The Lions have this city on fire,  we saw what that incredible run did for the Tigers and I've got news for you, the idea of the Pistons having a winning record is not all that crazy.  The East is weak this year.   They are 6-8 and only a handful of plays away from being 9-5.  They're 2-0 in NBA Cup play.   They have lost several close games and the losses that were not as close, they weren't hitting shots, but they were GETTING them, and they are very young and they are losing close games like a young team does.     The Wings are lagging behind all the other teams.  

Yep, Stevie hired LaLonde and while he would have to admit he made a mistake, I also think he needs to put his ego aside a bit, like he did as a player.   It ain't workin'.     All you need to be in the NHL to make the playoffs is in the top half of your conference and that's not all that impressive, but they can't even do that and that's embarrassing this far in to Stevie's tenure.   I know turning around MLB and NHL teams takes longer than the NFL or NBA, but asking for this kind of patience is not what fans want to hear now,  not with everyone else in the city getting good. 

And for crying out loud, how much more seasoning Sebastian Cossa need?   He's got a .937 save pct and 1.89 GAA this year.   I think he might be ready for a look.   He wouldn't have to carry the load either.    Is he injured right now?   

Edited November 16 by Motor City Sonics