Scoreboard watching (aka, who to root for this week)

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

Same thing the Lions did in the NFC championship game. Going from 3 timeouts down to 2 timeouts with a minute or so to go has to be one of the most negatively impactful "plays" that can happen. It's the difference between the leading team that recovers an onside kick getting to kneel thrice for a victory, or run 3 plays and have to kick the ball back (albeit with maybe only 20-30 seconds to go) if you don't pick up a 1st down.

I would have hurried to the line and run another play instead of taking a timeout. 

[MichiganCardinal]

25 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I would have hurried to the line and run another play instead of taking a timeout. 

Especially if you're just going to call the same exact play again. Take 15 seconds to re-rack and run it again instead of burning the timeout.

[lordstanley]

34 minutes ago, romad1 said:

that game was nuts.  We have a handful with Josh Allen. 

The Bills have scored 30 or more points in 7 straight games. Last 3 have been: 30 vs Chiefs, 35 vs 49ers, 42 at Rams. 

[lordstanley]

29 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I would have hurried to the line and run another play instead of taking a timeout. 

Since the stop was on 1st down they could even have afforded to spike it. The Lions were stopped by the Niners on 3rd down so couldn’t spike it and couldn’t hurry too hastily on 4th down. 

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Especially if you're just going to call the same exact play again. Take 15 seconds to re-rack and run it again instead of burning the timeout.

This would have been the game to have Eberflus as coach. 

[Motown Bombers]

How do the Chiefs keep getting away with this?

[lordstanley]

8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

How do the Chiefs keep getting away with this?

It’s comical. Clangs a 31 yard chip shot off the goalpost …and in. KC definitely in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed now, even with the head to head loss with Buffalo. 2 games up with 4 to go, although not an easy schedule still having to play Houston, Pittsburgh and Denver. 
 

Chief’s +56 pt differential is 11th in the NFL. It’s even just 3rd best in the division they just clinched with 4 games to go!

Edited December 9, 2024 by lordstanley

[Jason_R]

Only the Chiefs win a division title by doinking a FG attempt. 

[Motown Bombers]

[MichiganCardinal]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

This is helpful reassurance that the Eagles cannot catch the Lions on Strength of Victory. It feels more likely the Lions go 4-0 than that they go 2-2.

[lordstanley]

Lions are golden on tiebreakers if they win 3 games. Go 2-2 though and not only could they be passed outright but also the tiebreakers could break against them. 

For example, if they beat Buffalo, lose to Chicago, and beat SF they'll be 14-2 going into the final game. If Minnesota beats Chicago, loses to Seattle, and beats Green Bay, Minnesota will be 13-3 going into final game. If Minnesota wins that final game, both the Lions and Vikings would finish 14-3. Vikings would win the divisional tiebreaker, 5-1 to 4-2.

If the Lions finish 2-2 but one of the two wins is over Buffalo and Philly finishes 3-1 losing only to Pittsburgh, Philly would win the conference tiebreaker 10-2 to 9-3.

Once again, I THINK I'm right but if I'm missing something feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Edited December 9, 2024 by lordstanley

[MichiganCardinal]

Do we finally get some help today? With the win over Green Bay last Thursday, Green Bay would need to go 4-0 and Detroit 0-4 to be caught. Feels extremely unlikely.

Notwithstanding the Packers, only the Vikings and Eagles stand within striking distance of preventing Detroit from clinching the one-seed.

Steelers @ Eagles today at 4:25. Go Steelers. This is the Eagles toughest game remaining, with a weird back-to-back-to-back divisional schedule to finish the last three games of the season against the weak NFC East. A Lions win today and an Eagles loss today all but eliminates the Eagles from one-seed contention, as it would require the Lions to go 0-3 in their last three.

Bears @ Vikings tomorrow at 8:00. Possible trap game? Minnesota has much tougher look-ahead games on the horizon against Seattle, Green Bay (possibly for the 5-seed and the right to go to Tampa or Atlanta instead of Seattle or LA), and Detroit. It took the Vikings overtime to beat Chicago when they played three weeks ago. That said, hoping the Bears can act like a competent football team is likely an exercise in futility.

[lordstanley]

4 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

 A Lions win today and an Eagles loss today all but eliminates the Eagles from one-seed contention, as it would require the Lions to go 0-3 in their last three.

 

Unfortunately I don’t think that’s the case. The Lions win 15-2 tiebreakers against the Eagles but not necessarily all 14-3 tiebreakers. A Lions win today would put them at 13-1 (9-1 conf) and an Eagles loss would put them at 11-3 (8-2 conf). Each finish with 3 games against conference opponents. If the Lions finish 1-2 and the Eagles finish 3-0, both would be at 14-3 and the Eagles would win the conference tiebreaker 11-2 to 10-3. 

[MichiganCardinal]

28 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

Unfortunately I don’t think that’s the case. The Lions win 15-2 tiebreakers against the Eagles but not necessarily all 14-3 tiebreakers. A Lions win today would put them at 13-1 (9-1 conf) and an Eagles loss would put them at 11-3 (8-2 conf). Each finish with 3 games against conference opponents. If the Lions finish 1-2 and the Eagles finish 3-0, both would be at 14-3 and the Eagles would win the conference tiebreaker 11-2 to 10-3. 

Good catch!

[RedRamage]

So... who did we want to lose this week?

Eagles of course... Packers just for more breathing room... Vikings obviously, and the Chiefs just because. And who did lose this week? None of them! (Well, unless the Bears pull off a miracle.)

If we were in the NFC South or West we'd have clinched the division already. But because we're in the North we actually could end up 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd yet.

[lordstanley]

Eagles was the only one I cared about. Packers are irrelevant unless the Lions finish with a 4-game losing streak, in which GB would be the least of our problems - sucks about Geno Smith because the Seahawks play Minnesota next week. 
 

The Lions’ path to the Super Bowl has narrowed and without Davis and McNeil I no longer consider them Super Bowl favourites. But not impossible. A 5-game winning streak will make it to the Super Bowl. Even with the weakened defense, the Lions are more than capable of beating Chicago and SF on the road, but not to be taken lightly. Do that and who knows, maybe the Lions catch a break and Minnesota loses to one of Chicago/Seattle/GB and Philly loses to one of Washington/Dallas. Not counting on it but possible. Then the Lions are the #1 seed even before the Minnesota and are two home wins away from making the Super Bowl. Even with a weakened defense those two home playoff games would be coin flips at worse, so hope still exists. 

Edited December 16, 2024 by lordstanley

[lordstanley]

https://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/nfl/seattle-seahawks/article297178889.html

The Seahawks have reason to believe Geno Smith will be able to play this coming weekend. Coach Mike Macdonald said on his weekly day-after-game radio show Monday morning Smith “seemed optimistic” in text messages with Macdonald the day after he left Seattle’s 30-13 loss to the Green Bay Packers midway through the third quarter with a knee injury.

X-rays with in-stadium equipment Sunday night showed no bone breaks or immediately apparent structural damage. Macdonald reiterated Monday morning that Smith is still to get imaging tests on internal ligaments, tendons and other parts of the knee before the Seahawks get a clearer picture of the 34-year-old quarterback’s injury. Asked if there’s a possibility Smith will be able to play Sunday when the 8-6 Seahawks attempt to stay even with the Los Angeles Rams (8-6) for the NFC West title with three games remaining in the regular season, Macdonald said, “Yeah.”

 

[lordstanley]

https://www.nflgsis.com/standings.aspx
 

 

[RedRamage]

7 hours ago, lordstanley said:

https://www.nflgsis.com/standings.aspx
 

 

Ah man... this is NICE. I love that they have all the tie breakers shown.

[RedRamage]

Okay, so if we can beat the Bears and the 49ers... which seems doable even with our heavily depleted defense... and if we can get the Packers to beat the Vikings (wait a minutes for me to wash my hands after rooting for the Packers), then we could go into week 18 with the division sewn up.

[MichiganCardinal]

I still think the Vikings lose one to the Seahawks or Packers (probably Packers), which - if the Lions can beat the Bears and Niners - sets up a scenario in the final week where the Lions have clinched the division, but need a win for the one-seed (assuming the Eagles beat the Commies and Cowboys), while the Vikings are already locked into the 5-seed or 6-seed. Which means they may rest some starters.

[Sports_Freak]

19 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I still think the Vikings lose one to the Seahawks or Packers (probably Packers), which - if the Lions can beat the Bears and Niners - sets up a scenario in the final week where the Lions have clinched the division, but need a win for the one-seed (assuming the Eagles beat the Commies and Cowboys), while the Vikings are already locked into the 5-seed or 6-seed. Which means they may rest some starters.

I was just looking at that. Yes, the Vikings game wouldn't matter for the division. Last season, the Lions didn't rest players, if there's still a chance for the 1 seed, I don't see them resting players. A 2 week layoff is kinda long. Maybe the Vikings will...

[MichiganCardinal]

46 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I was just looking at that. Yes, the Vikings game wouldn't matter for the division. Last season, the Lions didn't rest players, if there's still a chance for the 1 seed, I don't see them resting players. A 2 week layoff is kinda long. Maybe the Vikings will...

I don’t think the Lions would rest players even if they had the 1-seed secured.

The Vikings might if it’s the difference between 5-seed and 6-seed, going to Tampa or going to LA/Seattle.

[lordstanley]

2 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

I was just looking at that. Yes, the Vikings game wouldn't matter for the division. Last season, the Lions didn't rest players, if there's still a chance for the 1 seed, I don't see them resting players. A 2 week layoff is kinda long. Maybe the Vikings will...

Yeah if the division is wrapped up but not the 1st seed going into the Minnesota game, the Lions basically would have two shots of advancing to the 2nd round of the playoffs - a) beat Minnesota and get bye into 2nd round; or b) lose to Minnesota and beat #7 seed in wildcard to get into 2nd round. So would have plenty of incentive to go hard against Minnesota and take care of business, no time like the present. 

Edited December 18, 2024 by lordstanley

[RedRamage]

1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I don’t think the Lions would rest players even if they had the 1-seed secured.

The Vikings might if it’s the difference between 5-seed and 6-seed, going to Tampa or going to LA/Seattle.

I don't think they'd rest healthy players, but they may not play questionable players and/or they may start pulling players part way through the game... especially if they are winning or losing by a good bit.

That said, I don't see a likely senario with the Lions have the #1 set no matter the outcome of the last game. It would require both the Vikings and the Eagles losing another game before week 18 (or possibly during week 18 for the Eagles depending on when all the games are played).

It's certainly possible that the Eagles lose to the Commanders this Sunday (in order words: Root for the Commanders!) but I wouldn't bet on it. It's also possible that the Vikings lose the Seahawks and/or the Packers, but again that's not how I'd bet if I actually did any betting.

I really think week 18 is going to be a 'must win' in order to get the #1 seed.