Scoreboard watching (aka, who to root for this week)

[lordstanley]

Philly up 9.  Thanks for nothing Miami-Arizona-Baltimore. 
 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, lordstanley said:

Philly up 9.  Thanks for nothing Miami-Arizona-Baltimore. 
 

That's basically two TDs since you can't count on the kicker to kick a FG. 

[RedRamage]

We just can't catch a break, can we? Dang it... shouldn't have said "break" with all the injuries we've been having.

[lordstanley]

This is the worst I've felt about the Lions' chances at the #1 seed for awhile.  Eagles play 4 of their final 5 games at home, with two of them (vs. Panthers, vs Giants) virtual gimmes. Will be heavily favoured hosting Dallas too. I guess at Pittsburgh and to a lesser extent at Washington poses some risk to them. But the Eagles definitely have a shot at winning out. It's a lot to ask the Lions to win out.

If the Lions go 4-1 as long as that loss is to Buffalo, the Lions no matter what would finish ahead of Philadelphia.

The Lions will clinch the division if they go 3-2 as long as two of those wins are over GB and Minnesota.

At this point, with 5 games to go, I'd say the most likely spot they'll finish is #2, but #1, #5 and #6 are all possible.

Edited December 2, 2024 by lordstanley

[MichiganCardinal]

6 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

This is the worst I've felt about the Lions' chances at the #1 seed for awhile.  Eagles play 4 of their final 5 games at home, with two of them (vs. Panthers, vs Giants) virtual gimmes. Will be heavily favoured hosting Dallas too. I guess at Pittsburgh and to a lesser extent at Washington poses some risk to them. But the Eagles definitely have a shot at winning out. It's a lot to ask the Lions to win out.

If the Lions go 4-1 as long as that loss is to Buffalo, the Lions no matter what would finish ahead of Philadelphia.

The Lions will clinch the division if they go 3-2 as long as two of those wins are over GB and Minnesota.

At this point, with 5 games to go, I'd say the most likely spot they'll finish is #2, but #1, #5 and #6 are all possible.

Until they lose, I still think it's most likely they finish as the #1 seed. 15-2 should be good enough, no matter when the second loss comes.

I also think Philly will lose one more. They have a lot of talent, but their coaching isn't so great. Pittsburgh or Washington are my guess.

[Sports_Freak]

5 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

This is the worst I've felt about the Lions' chances at the #1 seed for awhile.  Eagles play 4 of their final 5 games at home, with two of them (vs. Panthers, vs Giants) virtual gimmes. Will be heavily favoured hosting Dallas too. I guess at Pittsburgh and to a lesser extent at Washington poses some risk to them. But the Eagles definitely have a shot at winning out. It's a lot to ask the Lions to win out.

If the Lions go 4-1 as long as that loss is to Buffalo, the Lions no matter what would finish ahead of Philadelphia.

The Lions will clinch the division if they go 3-2 as long as two of those wins are over GB and Minnesota.

At this point, with 5 games to go, I'd say the most likely spot they'll finish is #2, but #1, #5 and #6 are all possible.

It sure is different than most seasons. Usually, we're looking at teams ahead of us, trying to figure out how we can catch them to even make the playoffs. This season, we're watching the teams below us, figuring out how we can stay above them. It really is simple, just win all the games and don't worry about what any other team does.

[lordstanley]

Looks like 15-2 by the Lions wins the #1 seed no matter what.

- If lose to Buffalo, then beat SF Chi Minnesota, will win the division because the Vikings would top out at 14-3. Would finish ahead of Philly with a 11-1 conference record because Philly would top out at 15-2 with a 10-2 conference record.

- If beat Buffalo, lose to Chicago, but beat SF and Minnesota, will win the division because the Vikings would top out at 14-3. Would finish ahead of Philly even if the Eagles win out because the conference record would be tied at 10-2 each but the Lions would win the common opponent record  5-1 to 4-2.

- If beat Buffalo and Chicago, lose to SF, but beat Minnesota, will win the division because the Vikings would top out at 14-3. Would finish ahead of Philly even if the Eagles win out because because the conference record would be tied at 10-2 each but the Lions would win the common opponent record  5-1 to 4-2.

- If beat Buffalo, Chicago and SF but lose to Minnesota, the Vikings could top out at 15-2 to match the Lions. Lions-Vikings head to head tied at 1-1. Division record tied at 5-1. Lions would win common opponents 12-0 to 11-1, since the Vikings lost to the Rams. So the Lions would win the division.  Would finish ahead of Philly even if the Eagles win out because because the conference record would be tied at 10-2 each but the Lions would win the common opponent record  5-1 to 4-2.

Correct me if I'm wrong! (but I don't think I am).

FWIW, tiebreaker order is:

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

For Division

1. Head to head 2. Division record 3. vs Common opponents 4. Conference record 5. Strength of victory 6. Strength of schedule

For Record

1. Head to head  2. Conference record  3. vs Common opponents 4. Strength of victory 5. Strength of schedule

 

Edited December 6, 2024 by lordstanley

[StrangeBird]

3 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Looks like 15-2 by the Lions wins the #1 seed no matter what.

- If lose to Buffalo, then beat SF Chi Minnesota, will win the division because the Vikings would top out at 14-3. Would finish ahead of Philly with a 11-1 conference record because Philly would top out at 15-2 with a 10-2 conference record.

- If beat Buffalo, lose to Chicago, but beat SF and Minnesota, will win the division because the Vikings would top out at 14-3. Would finish ahead of Philly even if the Eagles win out because the conference record would be tied at 10-2 each but the Lions would win the common opponent record  5-1 to 4-2.

- If beat Buffalo and Chicago, lose to SF, but beat Minnesota, will win the division because the Vikings would top out at 14-3. Would finish ahead of Philly even if the Eagles win out because because the conference record would be tied at 10-2 each but the Lions would win the common opponent record  5-1 to 4-2.

- If beat Buffalo, Chicago and SF but lose to Minnesota, the Vikings could top out at 15-2 to match the Lions. Lions-Vikings head to head tied at 1-1. Division record tied at 5-1. Lions would win common opponents 12-0 to 11-1, since the Vikings lost to the Rams. So the Lions would win the division.  Would finish ahead of Philly even if the Eagles win out because because the conference record would be tied at 10-2 each but the Lions would win the common opponent record  5-1 to 4-2.

Correct me if I'm wrong! (but I don't think I am).

FWIW, tiebreaker order is:

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

For Division

1. Head to head 2. Division record 3. vs Common opponents 4. Conference record 5. Strength of victory 6. Strength of schedule

For Record

1. Head to head  2. Conference record  3. vs Common opponents 4. Strength of victory 5. Strength of schedule

 

How do you figure that Philly would have two losses against common opponents if they win out? Right now, their only losses are to TB and ATL. Detroit never played Atlanta. Philly would end up 5-1 also against common opponents unless they lose their second game to Dallas (the only remaining common opponent). Maybe I’m missing something.

Edited December 6, 2024 by StrangeBird

[lordstanley]

5 hours ago, StrangeBird said:

How do you figure that Philly would have two losses against common opponents if they win out? Right now, their only losses are to TB and ATL. Detroit never played Atlanta. Philly would end up 5-1 also against common opponents unless they lose their second game to Dallas (the only remaining common opponent). Maybe I’m missing something.

You are right! 5-1 and 5-1. Why did I make that mistake? So still safe if the Lions’ only loss  the rest of the way is to Buffalo, but if  Lions finish 3-1 with a loss to either Chicago, SF or Minnesota and Philly wins out it would come down to Strength of Victory? I heard that favors the Lions too at this point but I’m not sure and also not sure that has been settled yet. This WDIV article, if you look at the section “4-1 with a loss to Chicago” suggests the Lions’ strength of victory lead over Philadelphia is almost insurmountable  

https://www.clickondetroit.com/sports/2024/12/04/what-playoff-seeds-detroit-lions-would-get-if-they-finish-any-possible-combination-of-4-1-or-3-2/

Thanks for spotting. 

Edited December 6, 2024 by lordstanley

[MichiganCardinal]

1 hour ago, lordstanley said:

You are right! 5-1 and 5-1. Why did I make that mistake? So still safe if the Lions’ only loss  the rest of the way is to Buffalo, but if  Lions finish 3-1 with a loss to either Chicago, SF or Minnesota and Philly wins out it would come down to Strength of Victory? I heard that favors the Lions too at this point but I’m not sure and also not sure that has been settled yet. This WDIV article, if you look at the section “4-1 with a loss to Chicago” suggests the Lions’ strength of victory lead over Philadelphia is almost insurmountable  

https://www.clickondetroit.com/sports/2024/12/04/what-playoff-seeds-detroit-lions-would-get-if-they-finish-any-possible-combination-of-4-1-or-3-2/

Thanks for spotting. 

The Lions are playing the Packers and Vikings a combined four times, compared to the Eagles having the Cowboys and Giants in their division. Without doing any research, I'd be pretty surprised if the Eagles strength of victory is in the same ballpark as the Lions.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

The Lions are playing the Packers and Vikings a combined four times, compared to the Eagles having the Cowboys and Giants in their division. Without doing any research, I'd be pretty surprised if the Eagles strength of victory is in the same ballpark as the Lions.

Eagles strength of victory is .415 compared to .507 for the Lions. Lions are 3rd in the NFL in strength of victory behind Baltimore and Tampa. Tampa is up there because they beat both the Lions and Eagles. 

[Motor City Sonics]

Carolina almost beat the Chiefs last week.  They are playing respectable football this season.   I don't like their chances to slow down the Eagles this week, however

Rooting big for Sunday 1pm Kirk Cousins of old to go back to Minnesota and steal one from his old team.

 

This morning I am watching a low quality video of the first Lions game I remember going to (I guess I went to a game when I was 6 or 7 at Tiger Stadium, but I don't remember it).   The game?   Eric Hipple's first start vs. The Bears on Monday Night Football where the Lions absolutely destroyed the Bears 48-17 and Hipple had a monster game with 4 TD passes and 2 rushing TDs.  We thought he was the QB we needed.  

[MichiganCardinal]

I don't expect Carolina to beat Philly, but I do think an Atlanta team that is fighting for its playoff lives can beat a Minnesota team that has been playing with fire the last few weeks.

[MichiganCardinal]

Looking ahead, it might be nice if the Bears could beat the 49ers. The Niners may be shutting their hurt playmakers down for the year if they are 6-9 or 5-10 entering the Monday Night game against us. If they're 8-7 though, they'll be hot at the right time and right in the thick of the playoff hunt in the West.

[Motown Bombers]

Cousins can beat a good team on the road. He's done that before, right?

[casimir]

I’m not sure neon white is an actual color decipherable by human eyes, but I don’t know how else to describe Rex Ryan’s teeth.

[Motown Bombers]

Is the media going to lecture Vikings fans for booing Cousins?

[MichiganCardinal]

It wouldn't surprise me if the Packers beat the Vikings by 10+ in their rematch.

[Motown Bombers]

Atlanta is moving the ball on them, but Cousins is going to Cousins. 

[Motown Bombers]

O'Connell is not Campbell.

[Motown Bombers]

I like how Atlanta has Algier and Robinson on the field at the same time. I wish the Lions would do more of that with Montgomery and Gibbs. 

[MichiganCardinal]

13 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

O'Connell is not Campbell.

These teams are both just a clear step behind the elite company of the NFL.

[Motown Bombers]

So Atlanta punts and pins the Vikings deep. There's an offside on Minnesota that Atlanta accepts to make it 4th and 2, and they put the offense out there to only try to get them to jump. They punt again, and it's a touchback, and Minnesota gets better field position. It's like Matt Eberflus is coaching the Falcons. 

[MichiganCardinal]

8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I like how Atlanta has Algier and Robinson on the field at the same time. I wish the Lions would do more of that with Montgomery and Gibbs. 

I wouldn't be surprised if they do, as we get nearer the playoffs. I expect a lot of their load management strategies will be adjusted as individual wins matter more than a long-term vision does.

[MichiganCardinal]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

So Atlanta punts and pins the Vikings deep. There's an offside on Minnesota that Atlanta accepts to make it 4th and 2, and they put the offense out there to only try to get them to jump. They punt again, and it's a touchback, and Minnesota gets better field position. It's like Matt Eberflus is coaching the Falcons. 

There have been multiple punts on 4th and short in this game. A Campbell-led team converts at least one of those into points.