Bobrob's 2022 Preseason Predictions

[gehringer_2]

On 3/19/2022 at 3:01 PM, Tiger337 said:

Baddoo kind of reminds me of Granderson.  He can do a little bit of everything, but can't hit lefties.  He still has time to learn how to hit lefties.  

It would be nice if Baddoo became half the fielder Curtis was. He was pretty good until he started to lose his wheels, which is all you can ask of a CF.

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

It would be nice if Baddoo became half the fielder Curtis was. He was pretty good until he started to lose his wheels, which is all you can ask of a CF.

Granderson was one of the top defensive outfielders during his fantastic 2007 season.  Then he lost speed while gaining power which is a common career path.  

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #14 –Riley [Insert Middle Name Here] Greene

Riley Greene was a first round pick by the Tigers in 2019 and has been a top 50 prospect by Baseball America for the last three years, #49, #31, and #4.  He has most of the tools you look for in a player, including hitting for average, power, speed, and defense (many people believe he can be an elite centerfielder).

In 2021, Greeney hit .301/.387/.534, with 24 home runs, and 16 stolen bases between AA and AAA.  His BABIP was .392, which is going to be very hard to repeat in the Major Leagues, so his batting average may not reach .300 (at least not right away).  However, he has the speed to beat out infield singles, so a higher than average BABIP is very possible.  He hit 8 triples and was only caught stealing once last year, for a successful stolen base rate of 94 percent.  Both are very likely to carry over to the Majors.

Greene’s walk rate was an above average 11.3 percent and his strikeout rate was a concerning 27.4 percent.  There were 20 qualified hitters last year who had a strikeout rate of over 27 percent last year, as it’s becoming normal for hitters to strikeout more often as long as they hit for power.  Over half of these players (12), hit 30+ home runs.  Entering his age 21 season, Greene has time to develop more power to be part of this group.

AL Rookie of the Year winner Randy Arozarena might be a good comparison to what we might expect out of Greene.  Arozarena hit .274/.356/.459 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, 9.3 percent walk rate, and a 28.1 percent strikeout rate last year.  If he’s able to develop the home run power, it’s not at all out of the possibility that Greene can hit like Fernando Tatis, Jr., who hit .282/.364/.611 with 42 home runs, 25 stolen bases, 11.4 percent walk rate, and a 28 percent strikeout rate. Somewhere in the middle is where I’d expect Greene to hit in his prime.

Unfortunately, Greene suffered an injury with his foot during Spring Training and will be out for at least 6-8 weeks, maybe longer if they keep him in AAA for an extended period of time for rehab.  My guess is that he’ll be on the Major League roster around the All-Star Break.  This also allows the Tigers to manipulate his service time so that he is under control for an extra year.  This makes it extremely hard to predict his stats, as there is usually an adjustment period for both rookies making the leap from the Minors to the Majors as well as coming off an injury (not to mention how much playing time he’ll actually get).

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 316 AB | .255/.325/.440 | 12 HR | 43 RBI | 4 SB | 30 BB | 93 K

ZiPS – 514 AB | .268/.335/.465 | 23 HR | 71 RBI | 12 SB | 47 BB | 158 K

THE BAT – 412 AB | .236/.306/.378 | 11 HR | 44 RBI | 5 SB | 38 BB | 133 K

ATC – 411 AB | .253/.324/.420 | 14 HR | 52 RBI | 9 SB | 39 BB | 127 K

FGDC – 338 AB | .262/.330/.452 | 14 HR | 46 RBI | 6 SB | 32 BB | 102 K

RotoChamp – 397 AB | .254/.328/.431 | 15 HR | 51 RBI | 7 SB | 37 BB | 122 K

CBS Sports – N/A

ESPN – 367 AB | .259/.344/.460 | 13 HR | 52 RBI | 8 SB | 43 BB | 113 K

My Prediction:

2021 Prediction – N/A

2021 Actual (AAA) – 159 AB | .308/.400/.553 | 8 HR | 30 RBI | 4 SB | 22 BB | 51 K

 

2022 Prediction – 374 AB | .257/.330/.455 | 15 HR | 47 RBI | 8 SB | 38 BB | 126 K

 

And that’s all 9 position players and 5 starting pitchers.  It’s not like Al Avila is going to make a last minute trade or anything…

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #15 –Austin Wade Meadows

Austin Meadows had a breakout season in 2019 when he hit .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs and 89 RBI.  Then production fell in the COVID-shortened 2020 season when he only played in 36 games.  However, his production still didn’t fully come back after playing a full season in 2021.  Was 2019 a fluke?

The first stat that jumps out is his .331 BABIP in 2019, which is pretty high and hard to repeat.  This fell to .249 in 2021, which seems to be on the opposite side of the luck bar.  I would expect Meads to have a higher batting average simply due to things evening out.  What is concerning is the drop in power, going from a .268 ISO to .224.  Going into his age 27 season, I would expect him to be entering his prime years of highest production, including power numbers.

The good news is that both his walk rate (9.1 percent to 10 percent) and strikeout rate (22.2 percent to 20.6 percent) slightly improved, even though his plate discipline stats show he was more aggressive.  He swung at 46.7 percent of pitches in 2021, up from 42.2 percent in 2019.  And when he made contact, only 34.9 percent were hard-hit, down from 45.4 percent in 2019.  Over half of his batted balls were fly balls (53 percent), while only 28.7 percent were ground balls.  This gave him a 0.54 GB/FB ratio, the lowest of any everyday player last year.  In 2019, it was at 0.80 GB/FB ratio, which was still below league average.

Other split stats were also concerning.

Being a left-handed hitter, Meadows is obviously better against right-handed pitching.  In 2021:

Vs. RHP - 402 PA | .251/.336/.536 | 10.9% BB% | 19.7% K%

Vs. LHP - 189 PA | .198/.270/.293 | 7.9% BB% | 22.8% K%

Meadows also struggled more when the defense used a shift:

2019 - 286 PA | .322 AVG | .416 SLG

2021 - 335 PA | .241 AVG | .326 SLG

Finally, this last split is likely noise, but I wanted to end optimistically.  Meadows performed better under more pressure situations.  In 2021: 

High Leverage: 124 PA | .294/.379/.559

Low Leverage: 260 PA | .228/.304/.427

Going into 2022, there’s a lot of factors to consider, new team, new ballpark, entering his prime years, and having another year of experience under his belt.  Meadows definitely needs to make some adjustments, but I also think some stats will just naturally even out.  I don’t think he’ll be as good as 2019, but I also don’t think he’ll be as bad as 2021, somewhere in the middle most likely.  It will be interesting to see how his playing time changes once Riley Greene comes back.  Will he be in a right-handed pitching platoon situation?  Will they trade Robbie Grossman?  Will Miggy take less of a role and Meadows move to DH?

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 523 AB | .246/.326/.465 | 27 HR | 83 RBI | 6 SB | 58 BB | 133 K

ZiPS – 526 AB | .259/.332/.498 | 29 HR | 102 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 128 K

THE BAT – 509 AB | .251/.331/.480 | 27 HR | 81 RBI | 7 SB | 57 BB | 125 K

ATC – 512 AB | .247/.323/.467 | 26 HR | 86 RBI | 6 SB | 55 BB | 129 K

FGDC – 521 AB | .252/.329/.482 | 28 HR | 92 RBI | 7 SB | 55 BB | 129 K

RotoChamp – 499 AB | .246/.323/.463 | 25 HR | 83 RBI | 7 SB | 54 BB | 122 K

CBS Sports – 540 AB | .263/.328/.500 | 30 HR | 100 RBI | 6 SB | 50 BB | 128 K

ESPN – 516 AB | .238/.317/.455 | 26 HR | 96 RBI | 6 SB | 57 BB | 125 K

My Prediction:

2021 Prediction – N/A

2021 Actual – 518 AB | .234/.315/.458 | 27 HR | 106 RBI | 4 SB | 59 BB | 122 K

 

2022 Prediction – 529 AB | .263/.342/.501 | 27 HR | 96 RBI | 7 SB | 62 BB | 127 K

[bobrob2004]

That's it, I'm done until next year.  I don't care if Avila trades for Corbin Burnes or Tyler O'Neill, I'm not doing another prediction this year.  I'm also glad I don't have to do a prediction for Shohei Ohtani.  Although on second thought, that one might actually be fun.  

See ya next year.  

[bobrob2004]

Time to see how bad my predictions were this year: 

Javier Baez

2022 Prediction – 524 AB | .265/.305/.471 | 24 HR | 81 RBI | 15 SB | 25 BB | 179 K

2022 Actual – 555 AB | .238/.278/.393 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 9 SB | 26 BB | 147 K

Jeimer Candelario

2022 Prediction – 534 AB | .275/.359/.463 | 18 HR | 76 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 124 K

2022 Actual – 429 AB | .217/.272/.361 | 13 HR | 50 RBI | 0 SB | 28 BB | 109 K

Eduardo Rodriguez

2022 Prediction – 202 IP | 14-9 W/L | 3.79 ERA | 1.277 WHIP | 221 K | 68 BB

2022 Actual – 91 IP | 5-5 W/L | 4.05 ERA | 1.330 WHIP | 72 K | 34 BB

Robbie Grossman

2022 Prediction – 548 AB | .243/.357/.416 | 20 HR | 58 RBI | 20 SB | 92 BB | 141 K

2022 Actual – 411 AB | .209/.310/.311 | 7 HR | 45 RBI | 6 SB | 56 BB | 129 K

Miguel Cabrera

2022 Prediction – 475 AB | .248/.307/.368 | 12 HR | 59 RBI | 0 SB | 38 BB | 126 K

2022 Actual – 397 AB | .254/.305/.317 | 5 HR | 43 RBI | 1 SB | 28 BB | 101 K

Casey Mize

2022 Prediction – 157 1/3 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.36 ERA | 1.185 WHIP | 131 K | 41 BB

2022 Actual – 10 IP | 0-1 W/L | 5.40 ERA | 1.500 WHIP | 4 K | 2 BB

Akil Baddoo

2022 Prediction – 471 AB | .240/.309/.406 | 14 HR | 52 RBI | 24 SB | 48 BB | 147 K

2022 Actual – 201 AB | .204/.289/.269 | 2 HR | 9 RBI | 9 SB | 24 BB | 64 K

Tarik Skubal

2022 Prediction – 161 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.08 ERA | 1.205 WHIP | 178 K | 50 BB

2022 Actual – 117 2/3 IP | 7-8 W/L | 3.52 ERA | 1.156 WHIP | 117 K | 32 BB

Jonathan Schoop

2022 Prediction – 578 AB | .268/.308/.424 | 21 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 31 BB | 130 K

2022 Actual – 481 AB | .202/.239/.322 | 11 HR | 38 RBI | 5 SB | 19 BB | 107 K

Michael Pineda

2022 Prediction – 122 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.43 ERA | 1.238 WHIP | 96 K | 25 BB

2022 Actual – 46 2/3 IP | 2-7 W/L | 5.79 ERA | 1.414 WHIP | 26 K | 8 BB

Tucker Barnhart

2022 Prediction – 321 AB | .227/.301/.352 | 6 HR | 38 RBI | 0 SB | 31 BB | 95 K

2022 Actual – 281 AB | .221/.287/.267 | 1 HR | 16 RBI | 0 SB | 25 BB | 74 K

Matt Manning

2022 Prediction – 131 2/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.65 ERA | 1.352 WHIP | 111 K | 43 BB

2022 Actual – 63 IP | 2-3 W/L | 3.43 ERA | 1.175 WHIP | 48 K | 19 BB

Spencer Torkelson

2022 Prediction – 560 AB | .241/.315/.463 | 32 HR | 86 RBI | 0 SB | 58 BB | 159 K

2022 Actual – 360 AB | .203/.285/.319 | 8 HR | 28 RBI | 0 SB | 37 BB | 99 K

Riley Greene

2022 Prediction – 374 AB | .257/.330/.455 | 15 HR | 47 RBI | 8 SB | 38 BB | 126 K

2022 Actual – 376 AB | .253/.321/.362 | 5 HR | 42 RBI | 1 SB | 36 BB | 120 K

Austin Meadows

2022 Prediction – 529 AB | .263/.342/.501 | 27 HR | 96 RBI | 7 SB | 62 BB | 127 K

2022 Actual – 128 AB | .250/.347/.328 | 0 HR | 11 RBI | 0 SB | 16 BB | 17 K

[apabruce]

You nailed it for Riley Greene.

[Stanley70]

They hit 104 less homeruns than predicted. I blame the new ball 50% and Coolbaugh 50%.

[Dan Gilmore]

2 hours ago, apabruce said:

You nailed it for Riley Greene.

Other than that, juusst a bit outside. 😎

[Motor City Sonics]

So you go 162 games and you win your division and your reward is a 1-game playoff?   Not a fan of Cleveland or St. Louis, but they're getting screwed.  Fix this next year please. 

 

This chili sucks !

 

 

[apabruce]

It's a 3 game playoff for the wild cards.

Edited October 7, 2022 by apabruce