bobrob2004 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #1 – Ednel Javier Baez For the first time since 2020, there might not be a full season of baseball this year. However, these predictions are going to be based on a 162-game season. Javier Baez (6-year, $140 million) is the Tigers biggest free agent signing since Justin Upton’s 6-year, $132.75 million contract before the 2016 season. However, after 5 years of losing seasons and 4 top-5 draft picks, Al Avila must feel like the Tigers are ready to compete again. Hooray for tanking! Javy Baez’ strength is definitely his power. His last 3 years’ home run totals were 34, 29, and 31 (excluding 2020). His ISO has been .264, .250, and .229 the last three full years and his RBI total has been 85+ for the last 3 full seasons. He is a perfect fit for the middle of the order as Miggy’s numbers continue to decline. He has also stolen double digits 5 times including a career high 21 in 2018, giving him a rare combination of power and speed. El Mago’s defense has also been hyped up, even though his numbers show him to be average to slightly above average for shortstop in 2021 (-0.1 UZR/150; 98 OOZ). His shortstop defense numbers were much better in 2019 (9.5 UZR/150 and .804 RZR). Unfortunately, defense tends to peak early and I wouldn’t expect him to be much better than average on defense in 2022. I could see him moving to 2B before his contract ends. And now the bad news. Both his strikeout totals and walk totals have been way below average throughout his career. If he didn’t have the power and speed, this would be a major concern. His career walk rate is 4.8 percent and his career strikeout rate is 29.3 percent. In 2021, he was ninth worst in walks (5.1 percent) and third worst in strikeouts (33.6 percent). This gives him a poor on-base percentage (.319 in 2021 and .307 career). Another concern is his numbers before getting traded to the Mets. Now, there’s a lot to factor here, including small sample size, park factors, and the potential of playing for a contending team (as well as some players just tend to perform better in the second half with warmer weather). However, it’s worth pointing out how his numbers dramatically improved after joining the Mets: CUBS: 335 AB | .248/.292/.484 | 4.2% BB | 36.3% K METS: 167 AB | .299/.371/.515 | 7.0% BB | 28.5% K It’s also worth pointing out that Baez is still in his prime, entering his age 29 season. He is also switching leagues, which usually means an adjusting period. Comerica is also a neutral park that suppresses home runs a little. I would expect a dip in home runs, but a spike in triples (especially given his speed). If we are getting Mets Javier Baez, the contract is a steal. However, that is quite doubtful. Overall, a very difficult prediction (not even factoring in number of games). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 557 AB | .245/.291/.447 | 26 HR | 83 RBI | 13 SB | 30 BB | 182 K ZiPS – 570 AB | .261/.304/.468 | 28 HR | 85 RBI | 18 SB | 28 BB | 175 K THE BAT – 547 AB | .262/.308/.489 | 30 HR | 84 RBI | 15 SB | 32 BB | 173 K ATC – 551 AB | .254/.297/.465 | 28 HR | 84 RBI | 16 SB | 28 BB | 177 K FGDC – 567 AB | .253/.297/.457 | 27 HR | 84 RBI | 16 SB | 29 BB | 180 K RotoChamp – 554 AB | .255/.302/.466 | 28 HR | 84 RBI | 29 BB | 179 K CBS Sports – 621 AB | .264/.302/.462 | 30 HR | 97 RBI | 27 BB | 218 K ESPN – 543 AB | .269/.312/.479 | 26 HR | 90 RBI | 19 SB | 26 BB | 172 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 502 AB | .265/.319/.494 | 31 HR | 87 RBI | 18 SB | 28 BB | 184 K 2022 Prediction – 524 AB | .265/.305/.471 | 24 HR | 81 RBI | 15 SB | 25 BB | 179 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 His offensive projections look pretty consistent across different systems. He doesn't get on a lot, but has good power for a shortsop. He is going to be a really big upgrade I am a bit concerned about his defense being statistically average last year. Is that a fluke or has he peaked? Even if he just average, he'll still be a big upgrade, but elite defense like he had in 2019 would make him an allstar caliber player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Baez seems to be the type of player who excels in the spotlight. If the tigers are contenders his stats will be better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 You didn't mention the NL-to-AL dropoff effect, which usually impacts hitters significantly/negatively, at least for their 1st year. Miggy had one of his worst years (before he aged and was injured) in 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 his defense will be hit or miss depending upon how much he's paying attention. just like his at bats. javy is going to thrill and frustrate. one month he'll look like honus wagner and the next he'll look like rey oyler. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, sabretooth said: You didn't mention the NL-to-AL dropoff effect, which usually impacts hitters significantly/negatively, at least for their 1st year. Miggy had one of his worst years (before he aged and was injured) in 2008. In the last paragraph I did. Quote He is also switching leagues, which usually means an adjusting period. I should also mention that Baez is a huge upgrade from the last few shortstop players the Tigers had. Given that it's a premium position having a hitter like Baez, even with his lack of walks, is a high value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Now apply it to 120 game season................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: Now apply it to 120 game season................. 388 AB | .265/.306/.466 | 17 HR | 60 RBI | 11 SB | 19 BB | 133 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 I think if Baez defense is plus and he hits for his usually HR power I think the positive effect he has on the Tigers will be more than what his WAR suggests. The reason I feel that way is the outs he save should theoretically allow our young pitchers to go deeper in games which translate to allotting more time to them and less to our suspect middle and possible late relief. Also I feel that his HR power will be sorely needed on this team, we have quite a few guys who can get on base at a decent clip but really nobody you can pencil in for 25+HRs or even 20 for that matter. Perhaps Greene and Tork could also help there but its hard to say for sure how they will fair their first season. So while he may turn out to be only a 3 WAR due to his OBP I think he will end up being worth more than 3 games in the standings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 21 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: I think if Baez defense is plus and he hits for his usually HR power I think the positive effect he has on the Tigers will be more than what his WAR suggests. The reason I feel that way is the outs he save should theoretically allow our young pitchers to go deeper in games which translate to allotting more time to them and less to our suspect middle and possible late relief. I don't know whether I agree or disagree with this, but I do agree that pitching and defense works together in a way that makes it difficult to measure the value of defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 On 2/28/2022 at 1:05 PM, bobrob2004 said: In the last paragraph I did. I should also mention that Baez is a huge upgrade from the last few shortstop players the Tigers had. Given that it's a premium position having a hitter like Baez, even with his lack of walks, is a high value. whoops, sorry 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #2 – Jeimer No-name Candelario Jeimer Candelario had the best season of his career in the shorten 2020 season with a 138 wRC+. The question remained if he was able to carry that through a full season. And the answer was…mostly. He had a 119 wRC+ in 2021, a step back from 2020, but his 3.2 fWAR is his best yet. Candelario deservingly won back-to-back Tigers Player of the Year in 2020-21. Candelario’s BABIP evened out (.372 to .333) but his walk rate (9.7 percent to 10.4 percent) and strikeout rate (23.8 percent to 21.6 percent) both improved. His power numbers fell a bit (.205 to .172 ISO) and his 16 home runs was below his career high of 19 in 2018. However, he was tied with the league lead in doubles with 42 along with Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez, and Whit Marrifield. Pretty good company. Baby Ruth’s (is that really his nickname?) main issue is his consistency. Look at these splits: March/April: 109 PA | .260/.321/.340 May: 109 PA | .313/.395/.490 June: 82 PA | .194/.293/.236 July: 110 PA | .309/.409/.532 August: 108 PA | .267/.315/.475 September/October: 108 PA | .266/.361/.543 Jeimer missed some games in June when he was placed on bereavement list, which may have impacted his performance. But he did have two months of over .500 slugging, which would put him in elite status. In fact, he was able to keep this up for the full second half of the year: First half: 344 PA | .262/.346/.377 Second half: 282 PA | .282/.358/.524 Just like his 2020 season didn’t carry over into 2021, it’s unlikely that his second half will be able to carry over for a full season. But at age 28, he is right in his prime and there is a lot to be optimistic about. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 548 AB | .253/.339/.429 | 19 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 67 BB | 138 K ZiPS – 560 AB | .253/.334/.430 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 142 K THE BAT – 534 AB | .251/.335/.423 | 18 HR | 68 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 132 K ATC – 537 AB | .257/.342/.442 | 20 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 64 BB | 135 K FGDC – 555 AB | .253/.337/.430 | 19 HR | 71 RBI | 1 SB | 65 BB | 140 K RotoChamp – 544 AB | .257/.340/.439 | 19 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 64 BB | 137 K CBS Sports – 553 AB | .280/.358/.456 | 17 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 138 K ESPN – 541 AB | .259/.342/.444 | 19 HR | 63 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 140 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – 479 AB | .244/.328/.424 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 3 SB | 56 BB |134 K 2021 Actual – 557 AB | .271/.351/.443 | 16 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 135 K 2022 Prediction – 534 AB | .275/.359/.463 | 18 HR | 76 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 124 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #3 – Eduardo Jose Rodriguez Hernandez In 2019, Eduardo Rodriguez had the best year of his career with a 3.81 ERA, 18 wins and 213 strikeouts. He was one of 15 players to pitch over 200 innings and he finished sixth in the Cy Young voting. At age 26 it seems like he would continue to get better. Unfortunately, he missed all of the 2020 season due to having tested positive for COVID and being diagnosed with myocarditis. Then, he had a less than stellar 4.74 ERA in 2021 while only pitching 157 2/3 innings and averaging only 5 innings per start (down from 6 innings/start in 2019). However, there are reasons to believe that El Gualo was more than a bit unlucky in 2021. And it all has to do with infield defense. They had a total of 67 infield errors last year including 24 at third base (26th rank) and 17 from first base (30th rank). Their range was equally as bad: First base: .671 RZR | 30th Second base: .676 RZR | 26th Shortstop: .734 RZR | 21st Third base: .683 RZR | 24th When someone has almost 45 percent of their batted balls as ground balls (43.2 percent according to Fangraphs), then having poor infield defense behind you will result in inflated numbers, such as a 4.74 ERA, .363 BABIP, and 68.9 percent left-on-base (career totals are .311 BABIP and 74 percent left-on-base). Looking deeper in the numbers, E-Rod had the highest strikeout rate (27.4 percent) and lowest walk rate (7 percent) in his career in 2021. This gave him a career-best 3.32 FIP. After adding Javy Baez, the Tigers infield defense has greatly improved. It remains to be seen whether Schoop will play first base or go back to his natural position at second base. Hopefully for Baez, it’s back at second base. If Candelario and Torkelson (or whoever they plug in at 1B) can give just average defense, Rodriguez should even out his ERA. Eduardo is entering his age 29 season, and as long as he continues to do exactly as he did in 2021 with the strikeouts and walks, his luck should turn around and anchor this rotation with a veteran presence. A change in scenery could also give him a boost of confidence. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 185 IP | 11-11 W/L | 3.83 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 192 K | 61 BB ZiPS – 160 2/3 IP | 12-9 W/L | 3.47 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 172 K | 49 BB THE BAT – 180 IP | 12-12 W/L | 3.87 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 181 K | 61 BB ATC – 180 IP | 12-10 W/L | 3.79 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 189 K | 59 BB FGDC – 183 IP | 12-11 W/L | 3.66 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 193 K | 58 BB RotoChamp – 174 IP | 12-10 W/L | 3.67 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 184 K | 57 BB CBS Sports – 154 IP | 9-10 W/L | 4.32 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 133 K | 47 BB ESPN – 169 IP | 9 Wins | 3.94 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 194 K | 56 BB My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 157 2/3 IP | 13-8 W/L | 4.74 ERA | 1.389 WHIP | 185 K | 47 BB 2022 Prediction – 202 IP | 14-9 W/L | 3.79 ERA | 1.277 WHIP | 221 K | 68 BB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #4 –Robert Edward Grossman In many ways, Robbie Grossman had the best year of his career in 2020, with a 127 wRC+, .241 ISO, and 4.2 percent of his plate appearances resulting in a home run – all career highs. In 2021, he took a step back in each of these categories (114 wRC+, .176 ISO, and 3.4 percent home run rate). However, he did this in 671 plate appearances (a career high) as opposed to the COVID shortened season of 192 plate appearances. This resulted in a 2.7 fWAR in 2021, a career best. There is evidence that RG changed his approach in 2021. For the first time in his career, he had more fly balls than ground balls (a 0.64 GB/FB ratio). His fly ball rate was at 46.2 percent. This explains his sudden increase in home runs. Grossman was also much more aggressive on the basepaths, stealing double digits (20) for the first time in his career (although he would have stolen 28 bases at the same rate in 2020 given the same amount of playing time in 2021). This is a huge increase from 0 stolen bases in 465 plate appearances in 2018 and 9 stolen bases in 482 plate appearances in 2019. As far as walks (14.6 percent) and strikeouts (23.1 percent), they seem to be consistent with his career averages (13 percent walk rate, 21.3 percent strikeout rate). I would expect this to be about the same in 2022. Grossman also had a career high in RBI, 67. This is most likely due to 37 percent of his time batting third in the order, which is probably not going to happen in 2022. Robbie Grossman is entering his age 32 season, which is a tricky age to predict. This is the age where some players start to decline, while other players can keep their peak numbers for a couple of years longer. Given his adjustments, and park factors, I am optimistic that he can keep up his 2021 numbers for at least one more year. But at the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to decline. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 524 AB | .239/.346/.396 | 17 HR | 62 RBI | 15 SB | 81 BB | 134 K ZiPS – 485 AB | .243/.349/.408 | 17 HR | 56 RBI | 14 SB | 75 BB | 127 K THE BAT – 487 AB | .243/.350/.404 | 17 HR | 58 RBI | 14 SB | 76 BB | 123 K ATC – 489 AB | .241/.347/.401 | 17 HR | 57 RBI | 16 SB | 75 BB | 123 K FGDC – 510 AB | .241/.348/.402 | 17 HR | 60 RBI | 15 SB | 79 BB | 132 K RotoChamp – 510 AB | .241/.348/.406 | 18 HR | 60 RBI | 16 SB | 79 BB | 131 K CBS Sports – 424 AB | .250/.354/.441 | 18 HR | 52 RBI | 15 SB | 62 BB | 115 K ESPN – 492 AB | .240/.349/.400 | 17 HR | 54 RBI | 18 SB | 79 BB | 124 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – 474 AB | .247/.342/.439 | 17 HR | 56 RBI | 15 SB | 66 BB | 110 K 2021 Actual – 557 AB | .239/.357/.415 | 23 HR | 67 RBI | 20 SB | 98 BB | 155 K 2022 Prediction – 548 AB | .243/.357/.416 | 20 HR | 58 RBI | 20 SB | 92 BB | 141 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #5 – Jose Miguel Cabrera Torres Miguel Cabrera became the 28th player to hit 500 home runs last year and is only 13 hits shy of 3000. Only 6 players have hit 500 home runs and 3000 hits – Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, Rafael Palmeiro, Alex Rodriguez, and Albert Pujols. Miggy is entering his age 39 season and is no longer the hitter that he used to be. 2016 was the last year that he was an all-star, and in the five years since he has hit .264/.335/.401, 97 wRC+, and a -0.1 fWAR. In 2021, he had a 7.6 percent walk rate and a 22.4 percent strikeout rate, the worst percentages since his rookie year. For the fifth consecutive year, his ISO was below .200 at .129, the lowest since 2019 when it was .116. For the third time in the last five years, his wRC+ was below average at 92. Cabrera did have a very slow start in 2021. For the first two months of the year, he hit .184/.263/.279 in 152 plate appearances. Since June 1st, he hit .286/.337/.429 in 374 plate appearances. Cabrera spent some time on the 10-day injury list in April, which could have contributed to his struggles. Cabrera has always dealt with nagging injuries in his career but was always able to play through them and still be better than 90 percent of the league. Now that he’s past his prime, that’s no longer the case. It’s reasonable to believe that he will continue to deal with injuries (mostly biceps) in 2022 and therefore his numbers will suffer during that time. Finally, I think it’s worth mentioning that Cabrera’s ground ball rate was 48.2 percent, the highest it’s ever been (not counting his injury-shortened 2018 year). This explains his decrease in power numbers. This may continue in 2022, or it may just be a fluke. Hey, milestones are fun, right? In addition to getting 3000 hits, Miggy has a good chance of passing 5 people in home runs, 9 people in RBI, and 0 people in stolen bases. His next walk will be his 1200th of his career and he could pass Cal Ripken, Jr. for2nd all time in most grounded into double plays (350), only behind Albert Pujols (413). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 474 AB | .256/.323/.407 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 1 SB | 44 BB | 121 K ZiPS – 428 AB | .248/.304/.374 | 14 HR | 63 RBI | 0 SB | 34 BB | 106 K THE BAT – 419 AB | .248/.310/.383 | 12 HR | 51 RBI | 0 SB | 36 BB | 100 K ATC – 417 AB | .252/.315/.391 | 13 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 37 BB | 103 K FGDC – 474 AB | .252/.314/.391 | 16 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 41 BB | 119 K RotoChamp – 423 AB | .255/.316/.397 | 14 HR | 59 RBI | 0 SB | 37 BB | 104 K CBS Sports – 439 AB | .255/.318/.403 | 16 HR | 72 RBI | 1 SB | 38 BB | 113 K ESPN – 493 AB | .243/.307/.381 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 44 BB | 125 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – 467 AB | .268/.338/.394 | 14 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 49 BB | 112 K 2021 Actual – 472 AB | .256/.316/.386 | 15 HR | 75 RBI | 0 SB | 40 BB | 118 K 2022 Prediction – 475 AB | .248/.307/.368 | 12 HR | 59 RBI | 0 SB | 38 BB | 126 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Share Posted March 14, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #6 –Casey Arthur Mize Casey Mize had a very decent first full season with a 3.71 ERA, 7 wins, and a 1.3 fWAR. However, he only averaged 5 innings/start and they limited his innings in the last month as he was adjusting to the longer Major League season. His ERA was 4.58 in his last 10 starts. Looking deeper into No-Nickname's numbers, it’s safe to assume that he was a bit lucky with his ERA. His strikeout rate was only 19.3 percent, and his HR/FB ratio was 16.2 percent (13th lowest and 6th highest, respectively amongst pitchers with at least 150 innings). This led to a 4.71 FIP. He is going to have to work on getting more strikeouts and limiting the home run ball if he wants to get better in 2022. One encouraging stat is his ground ball rate at 48.1 percent (Mize throws both a split finger fastball and a sinker). With the addition of Javier Baez, the infield defense should be improved and limit the amount of base hits from ground balls, even though this was already low at .212. In fact, his overall BABIP of .254 is probably not going to be sustainable and will likely be closer to league average in 2022 (the league average was .290 in 2021). Unless Mize makes some major adjustments, I don’t think he will be as lucky as he was in 2021. He was already struggling down the stretch while only going through the lineup one time per start and the league now has a scouting report on him. It will be interesting to see how he intends on making these adjustments. There’s surprisingly very little news on what Mize intends on working on during Spring Training, such as working on a better sinker. Opponents batted .322 in 152 AB against this pitch in 2021. Or maybe even eliminating that pitch altogether. We just have to wait and see what happens. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 171 IP | 9-12 W/L | 4.57 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 141 K | 53 BB ZiPS – 148 IP | 8-8 W/L | 4.20 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 121 K | 44 BB THE BAT – 157 IP | 9-13 W/L | 4.68 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 125 K | 53 BB ATC – 157 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.33 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 125 K | 47 BB FGDC – 161 IP | 9-10 W/L | 4.39 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 133 K | 49 BB RotoChamp – 156 IP | 8-11 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 126 K | 48 BB CBS Sports – 154 IP | 7-8 W/L | 3.51 ERA | 1.11 WHP | 114 K | 42 BB ESPN – 161 IP | 8 Wins | 4.19 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 135 K | 49 BB My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 150 1/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 3.71 ERA | 1.137 WHIP | 118 K | 41 BB 2022 Prediction – 157 1/3 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.36 ERA | 1.185 WHIP | 131 K | 41 BB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 16, 2022 Author Share Posted March 16, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #7 – Akil Neomon Baddoo Akil Baddoo is probably the most exciting Rule 5 player the Tigers have selected in my lifetime, especially early in the season. By the end of April, Baddoo was leading the team in home runs (4) and OPS (.814). However, his second half wasn’t as impressive as his first half: First Half: 239 PA | .271/.352/.462 | 6 HR | 13 SB Second Half: 222 PA | .246/.306/.409 | 7 HR | 5 SB Yabba Da Baddoo’s BABIP in the first half was .367 and .303 in the second half. Therefore, I’m leading towards the second half the season being more Baddoo’s true talent than the first half. What I find most strange was the amount of stolen bases was cut more than half in the second half. From July 17 – September 28, Baddoo only stole one base in 48 games. Then he stole 4 bases in the last 5 games of the season. Just strange. The most interesting stat for me is the power numbers. Baddo had a .176 ISO in the minor leagues in 2018 and was able to sustain that in the Majors with a .177 ISO in 2021. He only played 29 games in 2019 and missed all of 2020 due to Tommy John surgery, then skipped two levels of the minor leagues and still kept his power numbers. That’s just amazing. Entering his age 23 season, he hasn’t even reached his prime years yet, so he could still increase his power numbers and potentially be a 20/20 or 25/25 guy. For 2022, I could see it going one of two ways. I could see him building up his numbers and have overall better stats, or I could see a sophomore slump. In a lot of ways he reminds me of Austin Jackson, who was an exciting player for his first few seasons and then fizzled out. Hopefully Baddoo has a better career. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 541 AB | .242/.320/.409 | 17 HR | 63 RBI | 20 SB | 60 BB | 150 K ZiPS – 443 AB | .264/.335/.451 | 15 HR | 60 RBI | 20 SB | 49 BB | 124 K THE BAT – 491 AB | .234/.317/.409 | 17 HR | 56 RBI | 17 SB | 58 BB | 149 K ATC – 496 AB | .245/.321/.427 | 18 HR | 61 RBI | 20 SB | 54 BB | 144 K FGDC – 547 AB | .253/.328/.430 | 18 HR | 69 RBI | 23 SB | 60 BB | 152 K RotoChamp – 509 AB | .250/.333/.428 | 17 HR | 63 RBI | 20 SB | 57 BB | 147 K CBS Sports – 503 AB | .264/.331/.455 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 19 SB | 50 BB | 143 K ESPN – 501 AB | .234/.305/.417 | 18 HR | 59 RBI | 22 SB | 53 BB | 147 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 413 AB | .259/.330/.436 | 13 HR | 55 RBI | 18 SB | 45 BB | 122 K 2022 Prediction – 471 AB | .240/.309/.406 | 14 HR | 52 RBI | 24 SB | 48 BB | 147 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 19, 2022 Author Share Posted March 19, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #8 –Tarik Daniel Skubal Just like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal stepped up in his first Major League season and put up pretty good numbers with a 4.34 ERA, 8 wins, and 164 strikeouts in 149 1/3 innings. Most impressive is the strikeouts with a 9.9 K/9, showing that his 10.4 K/9 in 32 innings in 2020 was not a fluke. Only Matt Boyd was able to have a K/9 of over 9 on the Tigers over the past 4 years (2019, 2020). Also like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal doesn’t have a nick-name and his major flaw is the home run ball. Skubal allowed 35 home runs last year, 3rd most in all of baseball. That is a lot considering he pitched less than 150 innings and didn’t pitch enough to show up on the qualified list. Therefore, his FIP was almost a full run higher than his ERA at 5.09. His xFIP, which uses league average home run rate, is more respectful at 4.06. If Skubal can decrease his home run rate, he should be able to duplicate his ERA from 2021. If not, there’s a good chance that his luck will run out. However, there are a few examples of pitchers who consistently out-performs their FIP, so we’ll have to wait and see after a bigger sample. I think Skubal might be relying too much on his 4-seam fastball. He throws it almost 43 percent of the time and hitters have a .291 AVG/.611 SLG against it. He also throws a changeup, almost exclusively to right-handed batters, and they only hit .176 AVG/.294 against it, with a 40 percent strikeout rate. Yet, he only threw it 12 percent of the time. Overall, right-handed batters had a .808 OPS against Skubal. Being a southpaw, he was naturally better against left-handed batters with a .675 OPS against. Going into 2022, it is clear that Skubal needs to make some adjustments. According to Baseball Savant, aside from the 4-seam fastball and changeup, he also throws a slider (23 percent), sinker (13 percent), curveball (7 percent) and split-finger (2 percent). This may be too much of a variety, especially considering that he throws his 4-seamer over 40 percent of the time. Only entering his age 25 season, he’s likely still experimenting and tinkering with his arsenal. He may need to sacrifice some strikeouts if it means less home runs. Hopefully he has learned what works and what doesn’t and has more confidence in his off-speed stuff going forward. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 158 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.14 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 170 K | 53 BB ZiPS – 148 1/3 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.25 ERA | 1.27 WHP | 160 K | 49 BB THE BAT – 163 IP | 9-12 W/L | 4.63 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 170 K | 56 BB ATC – 159 IP | 9-10 W/L | 4.10 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 175 K | 53 BB FGDC – 153 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.19 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 164 K | 51 BB RotoChamp – 155 IP | 9-11 W/L | 4.41 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 167 K | 51 BB CBS Sports – 147 IP | 8-11 W/L | 3.98 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 138 K | 41 BB ESPN – 162 IP | 9 Wins | 4.11 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 184 K | 53 BB My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – 32 IP | 1-4 W/L | 5.63 ERA | 1.219 WHIP | 37 K | 11 BB 2021 Actual – 149 1/3 IP | 8-12 W/L | 4.34 ERA | 1.259 WHIP | 164 K | 47 BB 2022 Prediction – 161 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.08 ERA | 1.205 WHIP | 178 K | 50 BB 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 On 3/16/2022 at 11:27 AM, bobrob2004 said: Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #7 – Akil Neomon Baddoo Akil Baddoo is probably the most exciting Rule 5 player the Tigers have selected in my lifetime, especially early in the season. By the end of April, Baddoo was leading the team in home runs (4) and OPS (.814). However, his second half wasn’t as impressive as his first half: First Half: 239 PA | .271/.352/.462 | 6 HR | 13 SB Second Half: 222 PA | .246/.306/.409 | 7 HR | 5 SB Yabba Da Baddoo’s BABIP in the first half was .367 and .303 in the second half. Therefore, I’m leading towards the second half the season being more Baddoo’s true talent than the first half. What I find most strange was the amount of stolen bases was cut more than half in the second half. From July 17 – September 28, Baddoo only stole one base in 48 games. Then he stole 4 bases in the last 5 games of the season. Just strange. The most interesting stat for me is the power numbers. Baddo had a .176 ISO in the minor leagues in 2018 and was able to sustain that in the Majors with a .177 ISO in 2021. He only played 29 games in 2019 and missed all of 2020 due to Tommy John surgery, then skipped two levels of the minor leagues and still kept his power numbers. That’s just amazing. Entering his age 23 season, he hasn’t even reached his prime years yet, so he could still increase his power numbers and potentially be a 20/20 or 25/25 guy. For 2022, I could see it going one of two ways. I could see him building up his numbers and have overall better stats, or I could see a sophomore slump. In a lot of ways he reminds me of Austin Jackson, who was an exciting player for his first few seasons and then fizzled out. Hopefully Baddoo has a better career. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 541 AB | .242/.320/.409 | 17 HR | 63 RBI | 20 SB | 60 BB | 150 K ZiPS – 443 AB | .264/.335/.451 | 15 HR | 60 RBI | 20 SB | 49 BB | 124 K THE BAT – 491 AB | .234/.317/.409 | 17 HR | 56 RBI | 17 SB | 58 BB | 149 K ATC – 496 AB | .245/.321/.427 | 18 HR | 61 RBI | 20 SB | 54 BB | 144 K FGDC – 547 AB | .253/.328/.430 | 18 HR | 69 RBI | 23 SB | 60 BB | 152 K RotoChamp – 509 AB | .250/.333/.428 | 17 HR | 63 RBI | 20 SB | 57 BB | 147 K CBS Sports – 503 AB | .264/.331/.455 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 19 SB | 50 BB | 143 K ESPN – 501 AB | .234/.305/.417 | 18 HR | 59 RBI | 22 SB | 53 BB | 147 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 413 AB | .259/.330/.436 | 13 HR | 55 RBI | 18 SB | 45 BB | 122 K 2022 Prediction – 471 AB | .240/.309/.406 | 14 HR | 52 RBI | 24 SB | 48 BB | 147 K Baddoo kind of reminds me of Granderson. He can do a little bit of everything, but can't hit lefties. He still has time to learn how to hit lefties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Share Posted March 22, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #9 – Jonathan Rufino Schoop After his breakout year in 2017, Jonathan Schoop has only been below average once, in 2018 (80 wRC+). For 2021, Schoop hit .278/.320/.435, good enough for a 105 wRC+. Aside from the power numbers, he had almost exactly the same batting line in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, .278/.324/.475. However, it took him a while to get going as he only hit .198/.230/.284 in 24 games in March/April. He would then hit .340/.379/.698 in 26 games in the month of June, so his numbers eventually evened out. Here are his splits from before and after the All-Star break: First Half – 368 PA | .277/.321/.466 | 16 HR Second Half – 306 PA | .278/.320/.398 | 6 HR The one stat that immediately stands out is the declining power. Mamba’s ISO has consistently been around .185-.210 for most of his career, but it was only .157 in 2021. His home run to fly ball ratio was only 10.7 percent last year, the lowest it has ever been. His overall home run rate was 3.3 percent, down from 5 percent in 2019 and 4.5 percent in 2020 and the lowest it’s been since his rookie season. As Schoop is entering his age 30 season, this could be the first sign of exiting his prime years. The more encouraging stats are his walk (5.5 percent) and strikeout rates (19.7 percent), both of which are the best they’ve ever been in his career. While his walk rate is still way below league average, the only other time it was above five percent was in 2017. And his strikeout rate has never been below 20 percent before 2021. The other encouraging stat is the number of games played, 156. The last time he healthy enough to play this many games in a full season was in 2017 with 160 games played. Schoop was forced to play first base for the first time in his career last year, and he was average at best (learning a new position may have affected his batting, which explains his slow start). He ranked 15th out of 21 qualified first basemen in UZR at -1.4 and 14th in range with a .774 RZR. Hopefully Spencer Torkelson is ready to play first base this year and Schoop can go back to his natural position at second base. If not, he may need to play first base at the start of the season while Willi Castro or Cody Clemens plays second. He’s at an age where his defense will likely not improve, but the first base experience will likely not affect his batting. At the same time, he’s at an age where his power numbers could go either way. His second half of last year could just be a fluke, or the start of his decline. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 574 AB | .264/.311/.441 | 23 HR | 77 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 127 K ZiPS – 569 AB | .265/.307/.436 | 22 HR | 74 RBI | 2 SB | 28 BB | 121 K THE BAT – 549 AB | .264/.315/.440 | 22 HR | 74 RBI | 1 SB | 34 BB | 120 K ATC – 551 AB | .263/.309/.437 | 22 HR | 74 RBI | 2 SB | 31 BB | 123 K FGDC – 565 AB | .264/.309/.438 | 22 HR | 75 RBI | 2 SB | 30 BB | 123 K RotoChamp – 559 AB | .265/.308/.438 | 22 HR | 74 RBI | 2 SB | 31 BB | 123 K CBS Sports – 526 AB | .279/.326/.443 | 19 HR | 68 RBI | 2 SB | 30 BB | 112 K ESPN – 593 AB | .263/.306/.432 | 23 HR | 77 RBI | 2 SB | 31 BB | 134 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – 425 AB | .240/.281/.409 | 19 HR | 61 RBI | 1 SB | 20 BB | 109 K 2021 Actual – 623 AB | .278/.320/.435 | 22 HR | 84 RBI | 2 SB | 37 BB | 133 K 2022 Prediction – 578 AB | .268/.308/.424 | 21 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 31 BB | 130 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #10 –Michael Francisco Pineda Paulino Even with the signing of Eduardo Rodriguez, the Tigers still needed starting pitching depth. And they got it by signing Michael Pineda and resigning Wily Peralta. Pineda has a career ERA of 3.98 and last year it was at 3.62. However, he only pitched just over 109 innings in 2021 and hasn’t exactly been healthy throughout his career. He has only started 30+ games once in his career, in 2016. Big Mike missed all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery but started 26 games in 2019 with pretty good results. He only pitched in 5 games in 2020 while he was serving a suspension after testing positive for a banned substance but bounced back again in 2021 with 22 games pitched, again with pretty good results. In fact, his 2019 and 2021 seasons were similar in a lot of ways. 2019 – 146 IP | 4.01 ERA | 23.3% K% | 4.7% BB% | 13.5% HR/FB | 4.02 FIP 2021 – 109 1/3 IP | 3.62 ERA | 19.2% K% | 4.6% BB% | 13.1% HR/FB | 4.21 FIP The stats imply a bit of good fortune for Pineda in 2021 as his ERA was better than his FIP. The concerning stat is the declining strikeout rate. Pineda is entering his age 33 season and his average fastball velocity was only 90.9 MPH in 2021, down from 92.6 MPH in 2019. Naturally as pitchers age, they lose velocity. Therefore, it’s not at all surprising to see a declining strikeout rate. I wouldn’t expect him to be above 8 K/9 again. Pineda throws a 4-seamer, changeup, and slider. He relied on his fastball 54.2 percent of the time in 2021. This is consistent with previous years as he threw it 51.9 percent in 2019. Despite his loss in velocity, his movement improved, 19 inches of vertical drop in 2021, which was up from 18.5 inches in 2019. His slider vertical movement (37.4 to 40.9) and changeup vertical movement (27.6 to 29.3) also improved from 2019 to 2021. However, this didn’t directly improve any results. Whiff rate went down 25.5 percent in 2019 to 22.1 percent in 2021 and hard hit rate went from 37.4 percent in 2019 to 46.7 percent in 2021 (according to Baseball Savant). Going into 2022, the worst case scenario is another Jordan Zimmermann situation, who also was a few years removed from Tommy John surgery when the Tigers acquired him while also facing a loss in velocity. Luckily for the Tigers, Pineda doesn’t have a huge contract and we have some depth to replace Pineda if he struggles too much or gets injured. It’ll be interesting to see any adjustments he makes this year as I think he needs to change something. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 154 IP | 8-11 W/L | 4.83 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 117 K | 39 BB ZiPS – 109 IP | 8-7 W/L | 4.29 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 91 K | 22 BB THE BAT – 136 IP | 7-11 W/L | 4.94 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 105 K | 37 BB ATC – 136 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.40 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 111 K | 31 BB FGDC – 148 IP | 9-10 W/L | 4.57 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 118 K | 34 BB RotoChamp – 138 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.57 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 110 K | 33 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 127 IP | 7 Wins | 4.25 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 109 K | 28 BB My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 109 1/3 IP | 9-8 W/L | 3.62 ERA | 1.235 WHIP | 88 K | 21 BB 2022 Prediction – 122 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.43 ERA | 1.238 WHIP | 96 K | 25 BB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 29, 2022 Author Share Posted March 29, 2022 (edited) Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #11 – Tucker Jackson Barnhart Wilson Ramos was supposed to be the starting catcher in 2021. They needed an offensive upgrade and called up Eric Haase, who hit .231/.286/.459 with 22 home runs in 381 AB. He caught in 64 games (while also playing some outfield and DH). Jack Rogers was the primary backup, catching 36 games (Grayson Greiner and Dustin Garneau also caught some games). However, Haase and Rogers ranked rather poorly in pitch framing; Hasse was at -6 runs and Rogers was at -3 runs. This ranked 56th and 49th out of 59 qualified catchers. Enter Tucker Barnhart, who ranked 7th at 5 runs saved. Barney isn’t going to wow anyone on offense. His wRC+ has always been below average, around 78-88 over the last few years. As he is now on the other side of 30, there’s some concern of a decline. His walk rate has always been above average until 2021. It went from 12.1 percent in 2019 to 7.5 percent in 2021. His power also took a bit of a dive, going from .149 ISO in 2019 to .121 ISO in 2021. I can see an increase in doubles and triples, but I wouldn’t expect to see double digits in home runs. His batting average was at .247 in 2021, but even that he may not be able to repeat. His BABIP was at .324, the highest of his career. It was at .278 in 2019 and his career mark is .295. Finally, his strikeout rate continues to go up at a rather alarming rate, going from 16.1 percent in 2017 to 18.4 percent in 2018 to 22.8 percent in 2020 to 25.8 percent in 2022. Fortunately, the Tigers got Barnhart for his defense. Along with his elite pitch framing, he had a 28 percent caught stealing rate, which ranked 5th among catchers with at least 800 innings last year (behind Salvador Perez, 44 percent, Yadier Molina, 41 percent, Martin Maldonado, 40 percent, and Buster Posey, 31 percent). I would expect a decrease in most of his offensive numbers for 2022, but as a trade-off, the Tigers pitching should be greatly improved. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 305 AB | .229/.307/.350 | 7 HR | 32 RBI | 1 SB | 31 BB | 80 K ZiPS – 340 AB | .229/.303/.335 | 6 HR | 35 RBI | 0 SB | 33 BB | 87 K THE BAT – 346 AB | .220/.298/.339 | 8 HR | 37 RBI | 0 SB | 36 BB | 95 K ATC – 350 AB | .226/.301/.348 | 8 HR | 39 RBI | 0 SB | 34 BB | 93 K FGDC – 330 AB | .229/.305/.343 | 7 HR | 35 RBI | 1 SB | 33 BB | 86 K RotoChamp – 340 AB | .226/.304/.350 | 8 HR | 38 RBI | 1 SB | 34 BB | 91 K CBS Sports – 425 AB | .242/.305/.372 | 11 HR | 55 RBI | 0 SB | 36 BB | 127 K ESPN – 349 AB | .218/.300/.327 | 7 HR | 40 RBI | 0 SB | 37 BB | 92 K1 My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 348 AB | .247/.317/.368 | 7 HR | 48 RBI | 0 SB | 29 BB | 100 K 2022 Prediction – 321 AB | .227/.301/.352 | 6 HR | 38 RBI | 0 SB | 31 BB | 95 K Edited March 29, 2022 by bobrob2004 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 31, 2022 Author Share Posted March 31, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #12 – Matthew George Manning If it weren’t for several injuries, Matt Manning likely wouldn’t have pitched much at the Major League level last year. He was called up in mid-June and stayed in the rotation for the rest of the season, although his innings were limited in September. He showed signs of brilliance (in his last start he pitched 5 innings, allowing 2 hits and 7 strikeouts). However, he was wildly inconsistent, ending with an ERA of 5.80. There are signs that Matty’s (Manny? Georgy? Ziggy? Let’s give him a good nickname) ERA was unfortunately high. His FIP was only 4.62. Also, his left-on base percentage was a very low 61.9 percent, while the league average was at 72.1 percent. Typically, pitchers are not that far away from the league average, so given a bigger sample it is likely that this stat would even out, which will result in a lower ERA. Manning’s shinning stat in 2021 is his low 1.1 HR/9 rate. His walk rate (3.5 BB/9) is higher than he showed in AAA (2.8 BB/9) and AA (2.6 BB/9), so an improvement is very likely. His 6.0 K/9 was a bit disappointing considering that it was at 10 K/9 in both AAA and AA and 11 K/9 overall in the Minor Leagues. It may not go over 9.0, but I would expect this stat to increase in 2022 as he gains experience. Manning throws several pitches, including a 4-seam fastball, sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball. The slider was his poorest pitch in 2021, throwing it 15.2 percent of the time and allowing an opponent’s batting average of .371 and a slugging of .468. His changeup could also use an improvement, throwing it 12.7 percent of the time and allowing an opponent’s batting average of .293 and slugging of .488. It’ll be interesting to see what adjustments he makes in 2022. Going into 2022, the Tigers could go with a 6-man rotation of Rodriguez, Mize, Skubal, Pineda, Manning, and Peralta, with Alexander making some starts. The Tigers have a deeper rotation than they have in the last few years and could afford to send Manning down to AAA for more seasoning if he struggles early on (provided everyone avoids major injuries). On the flip side, I can easily see Manning improving so much that he outperforms Mize and Skubal. It’s really a coin flip at this point. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 123 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.88 ERA | 1.43 WHIP | 93 K | 44 BB ZiPS – 121 2/3 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.59 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 94 K | 42 BB THE BAT – 121 IP | 7-11 W/L | 5.06 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 87 K | 41 BB ATC – 121 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.76 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 93 K | 42 BB FGDC – 114 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.75 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 87 K | 40 BB RotoChamp – 119 IP | 6-9 W/L | 4.76 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 90 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 134 IP | 6 Wins | 4.57 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 101 K | 46 BB My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 85 1/3 IP | 4-7 W/L | 5.80 ERA | 1.51 WHIP | 57 K | 33 BB 2022 Prediction – 131 2/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.65 ERA | 1.352 WHIP | 111 K | 43 BB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeattleMike Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) On 3/19/2022 at 12:01 PM, Tiger337 said: Baddoo kind of reminds me of Granderson. He can do a little bit of everything, but can't hit lefties. He still has time to learn how to hit lefties. Granderson was at AA when he was 22. And he only collected 200 PA before age 25. So Baddoo is certainly ahead of Granderson on the learning curve. Edited March 31, 2022 by SeattleMike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted April 3, 2022 Author Share Posted April 3, 2022 Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #13 – Spencer Enochs Torkelson Spencer Torkelson has been the #5 prospect by Baseball America for the last two years and Riley Greene is currently the #4 overall prospect. The last time the Tigers had two prospects in the top 10 was in 2007 with Cameron Maybin at #6 and Andrew Miller at #10. Instead of trading these guys for the next Miguel Cabrera, it looks like they are going to try to build a contending team around them. Tork was the overall first pick in the 2020 Rule 4 Draft. 2021 is the only year he has spent in the Minor Leagues, hitting a combined 30 home runs spread across three levels, including a home run every 16.1 plate appearances in AAA. Power is definitely Tork’s strongest asset, as his batting average was only .238 in AAA and .267 overall, while his ISO was .293 in AAA and .285 overall. 53 percent of his hits went for extra bases. When he hits a home run, can we call it Torque Power? Tork’s on-base percentage was also very good at .350 in AAA and .383 overall with a 13 percent walk rate in AAA and 14.5 percent overall. Like most power hitters, strikeouts are a concern, 20.3 percent in AAA and 21.5 percent overall. I wouldn’t be surprised if this goes up even more in the Majors, probably around 25 percent (especially in the first season). The 21-year-old initially struggled when he first advanced to AAA. He hit .177/.279/.373 in his first 13 games with 2 home runs. But he finished strong, hitting .271/.388/.615 with 9 home runs in his remaining 27 games. It wouldn’t be a big surprise if he struggled early in the year. But I’d be shocked if he struggles so much that they have to send him down to AAA. Torkelson has officially made the opening day roster and will hopefully stay at first base all year. If he struggles, Kody Clemens or Willi Castro could fill in at second base with Schoop moving back to first base. However, I’d be shocked if that happened. In fact, Tork is in early consideration for Rookie of the Year, along with teammate Riley Greene, Julio Rodriguez (SEA), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and the early favorite, Bobby Witt, Jr. (KC). With rookies, it’s always difficult to predict as Minor League stats don’t always translate to the Majors, especially in the first year. But I’m going to be a bit optimistic here. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 454 AB | .250/.339/.490 | 27 HR | 75 RBI | 4 SB | 57 BB | 118 K ZiPS – 462 AB | .249/.334/.489 | 28 HR | 77 RBI | 4 SB | 55 BB | 117 K THE BAT – 383 AB | .238/.318/.415 | 15 HR | 51 RBI | 2 SB | 41 BB | 98 K ATC – 379 AB | .244/.332/.447 | 18 HR | 58 RBI | 3 SB | 45 BB | 100 K FGDC – 481 AB | .249/.337/.490 | 29 HR | 80 RBI | 4 SB | 59 BB | 123 K RotoChamp – 311 AB | .244/.335/.457 | 16 HR | 48 RBI | 3 SB | 37 BB | 80 K CBS Sports – 474 AB | .259/.333/.464 | 23 HR | 73 RBI | 3 SB | 48 BB | 127 K ESPN – 390 AB | .241/.341/.459 | 20 HR | 68 RBI | 2 SB | 55 BB | 107 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual (AAA) – 147 AB | .238/.350/.531 | 11 HR | 27 RBI | 1 SB | 23 BB | 36 K 2022 Prediction – 560 AB | .241/.315/.463 | 32 HR | 86 RBI | 0 SB | 58 BB | 159 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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