Sports Betting

[Hongbit]

It’s been many years since I’ve been a regular poker player but heads up was always my favorite.  Thr frenzied pace of play, larger range of playable hands, and constantly adjusting aggression or passiveness based on stack size.  

[Deleterious]

HU is not a club I have in my bag.  

[Deleterious]

He had said he wasn't playing the main event.  Probably wishes he didn't now.

They said one outer because someone folded another Q pre-flop.

 

[Hongbit]

8 hours ago, Deleterious said:

He had said he wasn't playing the main event.  Probably wishes he didn't now.

They said one outer because someone folded another Q pre-flop.

 

The older Phil handled this much better than the brat from 20 years ago would’ve. 

[Deleterious]

Pretty sure he was entered in another tournament that was running at the same time.  That is why he originally stated he wasn't playing the main event this year.  He wanted to enter tournament he had better odds of winning.  I was shocked to see him in the ME.  

[Deleterious]

What did they expect?

 

[Deleterious]

Calling off 7 BB's when he is 125 deep is what big stacks are supposed to do here.  

But what I loved was the, "I didn't insult anyone" line just after insulting everyone.

I guess there were other incidents with him before this.  He has been banned for the remainder of the 2025 WSOP, which is only going on another 3 days or so.  Most feel that will be extended into the 2026 WSOP, and it should be.

 

[Deleterious]

Leo is the first woman at the final table in 30 years.  Be cool to see her win, but probably pulling for Mizrachi.

Cards are in the air on Tuesday.  

 

[Cruzer1]

On 7/11/2025 at 5:02 PM, Deleterious said:

What did they expect?

 

I stayed at the Rio when I got married in '94. Looks the same.

[Deleterious]

Day 1 only lasted 5 hours.  

Mizrachi has been playing great mixed with some good fortune.  His AK against KK and spiking the A on the river was some nice luck.

He has 7 bracelets and a 5th place finish in the 2010 WSOP Main Event.  I think he would probably be the biggest name to win it since Jesus in 2002.  But when he won there were only like 600 entrants.  This year there was just over 9,700.  

 

[Deleterious]

A bit of a sun run, but he also played really well.  A pro like him against amateurs plus running well, they had no shot.  I think I heard today only took 56 minutes.  

HOF induction is a bit odd.  They only allow one nominee per year, but they made an exception for him.  He deserves it.

 

[Deleterious]

Rumors that Mizrachi only had 20% of himself in the main event.  Sad if true.  

[Hongbit]

As football season begins, a quick reminder that these big online books are shady AF.  

They do some very sheisty stuff with lines and odds.   FanDuel is definitely the worst.  DraftKings isn’t much better.  Fanatics has a great policy on voiding bets for injury but their odds are some of the worst.  MGM has very limited markets and an ancient app.   

[GalagaGuy]

5 hours ago, Hongbit said:

As football season begins, a quick reminder that these big online books are shady AF.  

They do some very sheisty stuff with lines and odds.   FanDuel is definitely the worst.  DraftKings isn’t much better.  Fanatics has a great policy on voiding bets for injury but their odds are some of the worst.  MGM has very limited markets and an ancient app.   

I've used Fan Duel casually for a few years now, what am I missing?

[Hongbit]

2 hours ago, GalagaGuy said:

I've used Fan Duel casually for a few years now, what am I missing?

2 recent examples with baseball props:

They manipulate the payouts on parlays now.   As with every book,  they can change odds based on whatever they choose and that’s fine.  The payout should be standard and shouldn’t change based on a player or team.  A parlay of +400 and +400 should pay a standard +2500.   Even if it they tweak it and want to lower it to f you,  every parlay of the exact same odds should pay the same.  Neither of these are true at FD.  They use some unknown method to determine parlay payouts and it changes depending on the player.   Have had some very weird situations where a +500/+400 parlay paid less than a +500/+350

They are also the only book that won’t void a no start in baseball.  Every other book needs a batter to be in the starting lineup to play.   FD does not and will keep the bet live even if a player pinch hits later and only gets one AB.  You bet with the expectation of 3 or 4 AB rather than just 1.    They stick you with a 1 AB play and with odds that are set like they were starting. If you live bet the 1 AB, your odds would be much better.   You don’t get those odds.  The most dastardly thing they do thought is they won’t  let you cash the bet out and take your money back before the game starts.  You have a parlay where all the legs haven’t started,  they won’t let you void it once it’s been announced your player isn’t starting.  They are the only book that operates this way.  

Edited September 1 by Hongbit

[Edman85]

In other words, don't bet through a sports book seems like a nice rule to live by.

[GalagaGuy]

Doing a bit more research, it seems that Fan Duel is still considered one of the top sports books.  

 

[Deleterious]

On 9/1/2025 at 6:24 PM, Hongbit said:

2 recent examples with baseball props:

They manipulate the payouts on parlays now.   As with every book,  they can change odds based on whatever they choose and that’s fine.  The payout should be standard and shouldn’t change based on a player or team.  A parlay of +400 and +400 should pay a standard +2500.   Even if it they tweak it and want to lower it to f you,  every parlay of the exact same odds should pay the same.  Neither of these are true at FD.  They use some unknown method to determine parlay payouts and it changes depending on the player.   Have had some very weird situations where a +500/+400 parlay paid less than a +500/+350

They are also the only book that won’t void a no start in baseball.  Every other book needs a batter to be in the starting lineup to play.   FD does not and will keep the bet live even if a player pinch hits later and only gets one AB.  You bet with the expectation of 3 or 4 AB rather than just 1.    They stick you with a 1 AB play and with odds that are set like they were starting. If you live bet the 1 AB, your odds would be much better.   You don’t get those odds.  The most dastardly thing they do thought is they won’t  let you cash the bet out and take your money back before the game starts.  You have a parlay where all the legs haven’t started,  they won’t let you void it once it’s been announced your player isn’t starting.  They are the only book that operates this way.  

It sounds like you are talking about same game parlays.  A 400/400 SGP will not pay out +2500, it will be much lower due to correlation.  

Quote

Correlation: Same-game parlays often involve correlated outcomes, which can affect the odds and potential payouts. Traditional parlays typically involve independent events.
Source: RG.org

Top image is from FD and bottom from DK.  

-114/-114 on a true parlay (Two different games) will pay out +252 and you can see in the top right this SGP is only paying +162.  

The DK one is also a SGP and a +110/-112 should pay +298 on a true parlay and you can see at the bottom its only paying +208.

Adjusting these lines is standard in these situatuions.  

[GalagaGuy]

Nobody told me there would be math.  I just like dropping a buck on some wild parlay that has no shot of hitting.  Makes the evening more fun.  Actually hit a 4 leg "to hit a HR" parlay a couple weeks ago.  

Edited September 3 by GalagaGuy

[Hongbit]

28 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

It sounds like you are talking about same game parlays.  A 400/400 SGP will not pay out +2500, it will be much lower due to correlation.  

Top image is from FD and bottom from DK.  

-114/-114 on a true parlay (Two different games) will pay out +252 and you can see in the top right this SGP is only paying +162.  

The DK one is also a SGP and a +110/-112 should pay +298 on a true parlay and you can see at the bottom its only paying +208.

Adjusting these lines is standard in these situatuions.  

I know about correlation and it makes sense in your examples.  There shouldn’t be any on player HR props.  They are completely independent of each other.  FD is just being shady  

[gehringer_2]

11 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

  There shouldn’t be any on player HR props.  They are completely independent of each other.  

Not necessarily. There are  things that can increase total HR probability and thus result in cross correlation between individual players hitting one. Wind, ump with a tight K zone to name a couple.

That said, I take no position on FDs shadiness. 🙈🙉🙊

Edited September 3 by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

Humidity, altitude, park size.  Quite a few things can bring correlation into play for same game HR parlays.

The shadiest move from books is limiting winning players.  They will take bets from losing players until the end of time.  Win a little bit, and you will get limited in a hurry and only be able to place $50 in bets a day or some small amount like that.  I think that is complete BS.  

 

 

[Hongbit]

6 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Humidity, altitude, park size.  Quite a few things can bring correlation into play for same game HR parlays.

The shadiest move from books is limiting winning players.  They will take bets from losing players until the end of time.  Win a little bit, and you will get limited in a hurry and only be able to place $50 in bets a day or some small amount like that.  I think that is complete BS.  

 

 

I use all of these same factors when I place a HR prop bet.  It’s a very big part of it.  They factor in the correlation in the individual player expectations.  They should and do have an impact on the player odds.   These factors should be baked intro the odds and not the payout formula.  

I’m not betting totals or sides and there isn’t any relationship like QB to WR or Point Guard to Power Forward that has a direct impact on one another.  There isn’t any correlation between one batter that would impact another batter from hitting a home run in the same game with the same park conditions.    They are trying to stretch things to their advantage again.

Edited September 3 by Hongbit

[Deleterious]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

I use all of these same factors when I place a HR prop bet.  It’s a very big part of it.  They factor in the correlation in the individual player expectations.  They should and do have an impact on the player odds.   These factors should be baked intro the odds and not the payout formula.  

I’m not betting totals or sides and there isn’t any relationship like QB to WR or Point Guard to Power Forward that has a direct impact on one another.  There isn’t any correlation between one batter that would impact another batter from hitting a home run in the same game with the same park conditions.    They are trying to stretch things to their advantage again.

We just got back from vacation, so I'm not ready for a long-drawn-out pissing match.  But with the batters +200 to hit an HR, the true odds are still different for a same game parlay vs a true parlay (Two different stadiums).   I used ChatGPT to show us why.

It sounds like FD is using the true odds, which is perfectly fine.  I don't expect a book to give me +800 if the true odds are less than that.  If other books give you the +800, congrats!  You joust found an edge and should hammer it at those other books.

Quote

I ran the “true odds” using a simple correlated-Bernoulli model:

• Each +200 HR prop ⇒ marginal probability p=1/3.

• If both batters share same-park conditions, let the correlation between their HR outcomes be ρ\rho.

• Then P(both HR)=p2+ρ p(1−p)

I showed the impact for a few plausible ρ\rho values (0 to 0.20). You can open the table I generated to see the results in detail.

Key takeaways (rounded):

• Different parks (≈ independent, ρ≈0) → P(both) ≈0.111P ⇒ ~+800 (matches the book’s naive parlay).

• Same park with mild positive correlation:

  • ρ=0.05 → P≈0.122 ⇒ ~+718

  • ρ=0.10→ P≈0.133P⇒ ~+650

  • ρ=0.20 → P≈0.156 ⇒ ~+543

So: the slip will still show +800 either way, but the true price shortens (better for you) when they share conditions that create positive correlation. If you’ve got a same-game parlay with strong tailwinds (hitter’s park, hot air, wind out), your true edge can be meaningful.

If you want, tell me the actual park(s) and I’ll plug in a realistic ρ\rhoρ (or adjust ppp directly using park/weather splits) to get a more tailored number.

 

Edited September 3 by Deleterious
cleaned up formatting

[Hongbit]

It’s all good.  We’re still talking peaches and nectarines.  Close by quite the same thing.