2026 Congressional Elections

[Motown Bombers]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

which means what? Anybody can use the internet to raise money - dem candidates have done it from Obama to AOC. If you can't raise party funds and you can't raise direct funds, you have lost your audience, or you have a campaign org stuck in the past, or both. Mills biggest problem was that she is 78, and while the people of Maine love her, nobody wants 78 anymore.

Platner's parents may have been wealthy but at least they didn't buy him out of his military service. The risk with Platner is that the big rallies, where he apparently shines, don't necessarily translate in the GE - ask Kamala.

LOL Maine is like the oldest state in the country and just elected 80 year old Angus King. They also just recently elected Janet Mills who is apparently too old now. Platner is supported by 83 year old Bernie Sanders. The same people that support Platner support 80 year old Ed Markey. 

No, Platner's parents just bought him his oyster farm. 

I don't think Mills wanted to run. I think she was pushed into it and ran a half hearted campaign. 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

he's running as a progressive, completely the opposite of Fetterman, who ran as a conservative dem.

No, Fetterman ran as a leftist. Connor Lamb ran as a moderate. Fetterman was supported by Bernie Sanders for Crhist sakes. 

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't think Mills wanted to run. I think she was pushed into it and ran a half hearted campaign.

Don't disagree. But that just demonstrates how much Schumer's org is out of gas itself.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

Don't disagree. But that just demonstrates how much Schumer's org is out of gas itself.

Schumer has gotten a lot of good candidates to run. Mills was the best candidate for Maine. 

[gehringer_2]

The public at large hates the Democratic Party only slightly less than it now hates the GOP. If the Dems are ever going to become a real force for social change in the US again, win big enough majorities to actual govern, the party is going to get rebuilt by a new leadership with a new set of ideas and a different appeal than the party that couldn't beat Trump twice. 

Edited 3 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

And that is by electing senators like Fetterman who are fixtures on Fox News? The public is stupid and things Democrats have some sort of magic they could be doing to stop Trump as the minority party. The Dems did beat Trump and got the most votes ever but they never supported their candidate and pissed all over themselves and threw him under the bus. 

[Motown Bombers]

Tell me one thing Platner is proposing that is a new idea?

[mtutiger]

27 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

which means what? Anybody can use the internet to raise money - dem candidates have done it from Obama to AOC. If you can't raise party funds and you can't raise direct funds, you have lost your audience, or you have a campaign org stuck in the past, or both. Mills biggest problem was that she is 78, and while the people of Maine love her, nobody wants 78 anymore.

She also didn't seem to want to put in the work of running... voters can sense that from a mile away. 

There's good reason to have mistrust of Graham Platner, just feel that it's not surprising that he won and, if the environment stays the way it is, nobody should be surprised to see him beat Collins.

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

And that is by electing senators like Fetterman who are fixtures on Fox News? The public is stupid and things Democrats have some sort of magic they could be doing to stop Trump as the minority party. The Dems did beat Trump and got the most votes ever but they never supported their candidate and pissed all over themselves and threw him under the bus. 

I can only hope Trump/Biden was the last gasp of their generation. For me, the number one sign of the intellectual and political bankruptcy of the old guard democratic party is that they are so  addicted to the corporate money trough themselves that they never even tried to mount an organized constitutional amendment effort against CU which was the single most important thing any honest political party should have been doing.  I'm just as happy to see all these corporate whores go away.

I loved Joe Biden but he made the worst mistake of a lot of people's lives by overestimating himself.

Edited 3 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

She also didn't seem to want to put in the work of running... voters can sense that from a mile away. 

There's good reason to have mistrust of Graham Platner, just feel that it's not surprising that he won and, if the environment stays the way it is, nobody should be surprised to see him beat Collins.

I don't think Collins is going down easy. She looked dead in the water going against a young well funded Dem. She was down in the polls and pulled out a safe win in an election Biden won by double digits. Maine works a little differently. We also haven't even heard everything on Platner. The Republicans have oppo on him and I would not be surprised if there are women who come forward who say he sexually assaulted them. 

[gehringer_2]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

I would not be surprised if there are women who come forward who say he sexually assaulted them. 

that would be the modern narrative.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I can only hope Trump/Biden was the last gasp of their generation. For me, the number sign of the intellectual and political bankruptcy of the old guard democratic party is that they are addicted to the corporate money trough that they never even tried to mount an organized constitutional amendment effort against CU. I'm just as happy to see all these people go away.

I mean, Bernie Sanders is a force and supports Platner. Sanders also supported Fetterman and Gabbard. Biden wasn't addicted to corporate money. That was his problem. Corporate money turned against him and the party kicked him out. 

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't think Collins is going down easy. She looked dead in the water going against a young well funded Dem. She was down in the polls and pulled out a safe win in an election Biden won by double digits. Maine works a little differently. We also haven't even heard everything on Platner. The Republicans have oppo on him and I would not be surprised if there are women who come forward who say he sexually assaulted them. 

Sadly - if she doesn't that means we've all been whistling past the graveyard thinking that America is finally falling out of love with Trump.

Edited 3 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

Democrats now have to explain why they support the guy with the Nazi tattoos, who blamed rape victims for their rape, and used anti gay slurs. Everything Democrats rightfully attack Republicans for, but he's young and has a beaver's ass on his face and wears flannel. 

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't think Collins is going down easy. She looked dead in the water going against a young well funded Dem. She was down in the polls and pulled out a safe win in an election Biden won by double digits. Maine works a little differently. We also haven't even heard everything on Platner. The Republicans have oppo on him and I would not be surprised if there are women who come forward who say he sexually assaulted them. 

I don't think she's going down easy, but the conventional wisdom among some is that she's now assured victory. And she very much isn't.

This isn't 2020 anymore. Despite COVID, which wasn't great for Trump obviously, this is an *even worse* environment, complete with insanely high gas prices and a wildly unpopular war. Collins is much more unpopular than she was in 2020. Partisanship is much more hardened than in 2020. And Donald Trump, the great driver of turnout that he is, will not be on the ballot.

Collins pulled the rabbit out of the hat, but even with Platner's problems, she's never faced a tougher cycle than this one.

Edited 3 hours ago by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

I don't think she's going down easy, but the conventional wisdom among some is that she's now assured victory. And she very much is isn't.

This isn't 2020 anymore. Despite COVID, which wasn't great for Trump obviously, this is an *even worse* environment, complete with insanely high gas prices and a wildly unpopular war. Collins is much more unpopular than she was in 2020. Partisanship is much more hardened than in 2020. And Donald Trump, the great driver of turnout that he is, will not be on the ballot.

Collins pulled the rabbit out of the hat, but even with Platner's problems, she's never faced a tougher cycle than this one.

I don't think she's assured victory, but I think it's 50/50 and it's leaning Collins. I also don't think we've seen all of Platner's warts. I think there is a lot more to come. Voters may simply sit it out or view Collins as the lesser of two evils. 

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't think she's assured victory, but I think it's 50/50 and it's leaning Collins. I also don't think we've seen all of Platner's warts. I think there is a lot more to come. Voters may simply sit it out or view Collins as the lesser of two evils. 

If this were 2022, I'd agree with you... but I don't know this time around. This is a terrible, anti-incumbent environment for Rs, Collins herself isn't really well liked by her constituents anymore and is also getting up there in age, and people are angry and upset with the direction of the country.

Keep harping on the environment because Platner would not be the first terrible candidate to win an election in a favorable cycle for their party. 

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

If this were 2022, I'd agree with you... but I don't know this time around. This is a terrible, anti-incumbent environment for Rs, Collins herself isn't really well liked by her constituents anymore and is also getting up there in age, and people are angry and upset with the direction of the country.

Keep harping on the environment because Platner would not be the first terrible candidate to win an election in a favorable cycle for their party. 

I do think Dems will take the senate but it's impossible without Maine. I think people are sleeping on Ohio, but in this environment with Sherrod Brown running, I think they flip it. North Carolina seems easier than Maine. Cooper is very strong going against a non incumbent nutcase. Alaska is another sleeper along with Iowa and I think Talarico has a shot in Texas. Collins is tough. They will have more oppo on Platner. There will also be another vote where Collins vote is meaningless and she can vote against the party like in 2020 when she voted against Amy Coney Barrett. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I do think Dems will take the senate but it's impossible without Maine. I think people are sleeping on Ohio, but in this environment with Sherrod Brown running, I think they flip it. North Carolina seems easier than Maine. Cooper is very strong going against a non incumbent nutcase. Alaska is another sleeper along with Iowa and I think Talarico has a shot in Texas. Collins is tough. They will have more oppo on Platner. There will also be another vote where Collins vote is meaningless and she can vote against the party like in 2020 when she voted against Amy Coney Barrett. 

with Platner, the question is how much if his past he will be able to write off as "I was a dumb young GI grunt".  He can probably finesse being a GI doing GI things if that's the era of stuff they come up with. You are spot on though that the GOP will be looking for every single woman he's ever failed to hold a door for.

I thought OHIO would have shifted more strongly a long time ago - I guess all the time I spent in Toledo gave me a false sense of security about the general sanity level of Ohioans. Better late than never I guess, if it happens.

Edited 1 hour ago by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

complete with insanely high gas prices and a wildly unpopular war.

The GOPs hope is that it will end and prices come down before the election and that people have short memories. The dilemma is that the only way to get Iran to relent is probably going to be to break a lot more stuff, and the more stuff they break, the longer it will take after it ends for enough things to get put back together so oil prices can come back down. One of the things that Americans are just phenomenally bad at is figuring out what the tother guy is thinking. Trump and Bibi have this grand idea that finally, after 45 yrs we deal the Ayatollahs the decisive blow. But it works both ways. In Teheran, the mullahs are thinking "after 45 years of pressure we finally have an opportunity to push the US back hard and get them off our case." The chances aren't that bad that they are going to be willing to take as much as we have the capability and/or stomach to dish out. And the status quo is untenable, both because there is a election on the horizon, and also because storage tanks in Asia are running down, and when they get critical the push back from China will start to mount and what that will look like is a huge wildcard.