The fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[TJ Rollercoaster]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[CMRivdogs]

JVL today...

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/our-low-iq-president-did-an-oopsie?utm_source=substack&publication_id=87281&post_id=191131928&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=false&r=45wcm&triedRedirect=true

 

Quote

Mining the Strait of Hormuz is the single biggest danger America faced heading into any conflict with Iran. How did our commander-in-chief plan to deal with it?

Six months ago the Navy decommissioned its four Avenger-class minesweepers that had been stationed in Bahrain precisely to deal with Iranian mines. 

It gets dumber: Those four final American minesweepers left the theater in mid-January—while war planning for the current operation must already have been underway.

But wait, it gets even dumberer!

Our minesweeping capability in the Gulf now relies on Littoral Combat Ships, whose abilities have never been tested in combat. Will the LCS be a suitable replacement for the Avenger-class ships? According to the Navy, um, no?

Nine months before Iran reportedly began mining the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. Navy director in charge of the mine countermeasures technical division stood before an audience of international naval observers in the U.K. and delivered a candid assessment: The Navy’s next-generation mine-hunting systems suffered from unreliable unmanned vehicles, critical single-point failures, and sonar that couldn’t see. . . .

The director’s own conclusion: The LCS will always struggle to match a dedicated MCM [Mine Countermeasures] vessel.

Keep in mind that the decommissioning of the Avenger-class minesweepers came after Trump’s June strikes against Iran—when the administration must have surely understood that a major war with Iran was possible—and that, again, the four dedicated minesweepers were still in the Gulf in January.

The Brits had one MCM ship, HMS Middleton, stationed in Bahrain. It left on January 25. Perhaps if President Trump had consulted our closest ally before going to war, he could have asked the Brits to leave Middleton in place? Because the Brits only have three operational minehunters left and these have to be kept close to the home island to deter Russia.

The Iran war is like COVID Part Deux: an absolute bonfire of stupidity. It isn’t just the case that American leadership—especially Trump and his SecDef—made avoidable mistakes. It’s that they steered into their screwups. I mean, it’s one thing to lose military capability because you decided not to consult your allies. It’s another thing to spend fourteen months antagonizing and threatening your allies and then demand that they help you, after failing to consult them and enlist their help ahead of time.

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[ewsieg]

55 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

JVL today...

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/our-low-iq-president-did-an-oopsie?utm_source=substack&publication_id=87281&post_id=191131928&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=false&r=45wcm&triedRedirect=true

The lack of coordination, combined with the current pleas for help would be laughable if it were not for the concern that America lives are at risk because of it and globally lives will be lost if we have end up in a recession because of this.

One note though, these LCSs, which already were considered failures by a good margin of folks, were specifically designed to be quickly reconfigured for various roles, including anti-mine.  A couple of years ago the F-35 had a lot of detractors and I think you're seeing more confidence in that program now.  Possible that they turn out to be effective in this front.  Still doesn't excuse Trump and his advisors for not being prepared though.  Also, they look pretty cool, they got that going for them at least.

[romad1]

48 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Not sure OSINTdefender are good guys but will look out on other media for reflections of this attack. 

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

The lack of coordination, combined with the current pleas for help would be laughable if it were not for the concern that America lives are at risk because of it and globally lives will be lost if we have end up in a recession because of this.

One note though, these LCSs, which already were considered failures by a good margin of folks, were specifically designed to be quickly reconfigured for various roles, including anti-mine.  A couple of years ago the F-35 had a lot of detractors and I think you're seeing more confidence in that program now.  Possible that they turn out to be effective in this front.  Still doesn't excuse Trump and his advisors for not being prepared though.  Also, they look pretty cool, they got that going for them at least.

The problem with the interchangeable payload concept of the LCS is that is was put out there at the same time the US was reducing it's overseas basing platforms. It's not very practical in the heat of combat to have to steam all the way back to SanDiego or Norfolk for a reconfiguration. The other thing is that Navy ships are going through constant metamorphosis at each refit, you have all those off board packages sitting around and you are tying yourself down to their compatibility when you need new function elsewhere. It's one of those concepts that sound good on paper but turns out to be at odds with the way the Navy operates in practice. 

They also F'd up the powertrain design in one of them, but that's another whole story.

Edited 2 hours ago by gehringer_2

[romad1]

41 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

The lack of coordination, combined with the current pleas for help would be laughable if it were not for the concern that America lives are at risk because of it and globally lives will be lost if we have end up in a recession because of this.

One note though, these LCSs, which already were considered failures by a good margin of folks, were specifically designed to be quickly reconfigured for various roles, including anti-mine.  A couple of years ago the F-35 had a lot of detractors and I think you're seeing more confidence in that program now.  Possible that they turn out to be effective in this front.  Still doesn't excuse Trump and his advisors for not being prepared though.  Also, they look pretty cool, they got that going for them at least.

I had all sorts of confidence in F-35 until Trump set match to gas-soaked barn with his behavior toward our allies whose need for a platform that does all the things F-35 can do is conflicting with their need to answer to their voters. 

[1984Echoes]

4 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I had all sorts of confidence in F-35 until Trump set match to gas-soaked barn with his behavior toward our allies whose need for a platform that does all the things F-35 can do is conflicting with their need to answer to their voters. 

Point.