WBC Pool B tie breakers?

[RedRamage]

Later today 2-1 Mexico hosts 3-0 Italy. If Mexico win then we'll have three teams at 3-1:

Itally, who only lost to the Mexico.
Mexico, who only lost to USA.
USA, who only lost to Italy.

Anyone know what the tie breaker rules are then?

On a side note the WBC got the final pool games scheduled nicely for the most part.
Pool A's final game decides between Cuba and Canada will decide which of those teams advances, as well as which team is the pool winner and runner up.
Pool B's final game, as discussed will decide then same.
Pool C's final game was meaningless.
Pool D's final game between the DR and Venezuela will determine the winner vs. runner up.

[RedRamage]

So browsing youtube and I think found my answer. Unfortunately it's kinda complex but it seems it boils down to runs allowed divided by outs. Turns out a very similar situations is what played out in pool C for determining second place. 

This video does a REALLY good job of explain it so I highly recommend watching it a moment, then look at my numbers below.

 

So, if I'm doing my math right (and that's a HUGE if!) then:

Mexico - 0.101 (7 runs allowed over 69 innings.)
USA - 0.157 (17 runs over 108 innings)
Italy - 0.123 (10 runs over 81 innings)

So, if Italy wins, then USA is runner up and advances because USA beat Mexico head-to-head. But, if Mexico wins then it goes to the runs allow quotient, and if I'm understanding correctly things could get very interesting. If it's a super high scoring game, then that helps the US, but if it's low... particularly if Italy doesn't score a lot, then Mexico would win the first tie break and they'd be Pool B champs.

At this point I think they start over with the tie-breaker rules... that is they'll compare USA and Italy and the first tie breaker is head-to-head... that means USA it out.

So, we should be rooting for Italy tonight I guess... or at the very least if Mexico wins we want it to be a shoot out with lots and lots of scoring.

 

[Edman85]

I've got it in a spreadsheet, but it changes in extra innings.

[Edman85]

This only applies to a 9 inning game. Extra innings changes it.

[RedRamage]

Sweet @Edman85! I was thinking about fumbling around with this but wasn't sure if I'd get all the math right.

[Hongbit]

28 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

This only applies to a 9 inning game. Extra innings changes it.

Do you have any unread Twitter DM’s yesterday from a @USADerosa?

[RedRamage]

Column 1, Row 0... Need more runs!

[Hongbit]

Jon Berti from Troy HS helps out his birth country with a big homer 

[GalagaGuy]

Well that was easy, thanks Italy.

 

Edited 3 hours ago by GalagaGuy

[RedRamage]

Now the only real danger is extended extra innings with low scoring. Seems unlikely.

[Sports_Freak]

So an Italy blowout and US advances?

[RedRamage]

If Italy wins, even if it's 15-14, the US advances. If Mexico wins, then it gets complicated.

[RedRamage]

Mexico loads the bases in the bottom of the 8th, but Italy gets out without allowing any runs. On to the 9th. At this point it would be nearly impossible for the US not to advance. It would require an amazing top of the 9th for Mexico to get back into the game. But even if that happened that helps the US because a high scoring game hurts both teams runs allowed quotient. Mexico would need to score a bunch AND it would need to go into extra innings AND it would need a LOT of extra innings AND Mexico would need to win for the US to be eliminated.

 

[GalagaGuy]

USA USA USA 🇺🇸