WBC Pool B tie breakers?

[RedRamage]

Later today 2-1 Mexico hosts 3-0 Italy. If Mexico win then we'll have three teams at 3-1:

Itally, who only lost to the Mexico.
Mexico, who only lost to USA.
USA, who only lost to Italy.

Anyone know what the tie breaker rules are then?

On a side note the WBC got the final pool games scheduled nicely for the most part.
Pool A's final game decides between Cuba and Canada will decide which of those teams advances, as well as which team is the pool winner and runner up.
Pool B's final game, as discussed will decide then same.
Pool C's final game was meaningless.
Pool D's final game between the DR and Venezuela will determine the winner vs. runner up.

[RedRamage]

So browsing youtube and I think found my answer. Unfortunately it's kinda complex but it seems it boils down to runs allowed divided by outs. Turns out a very similar situations is what played out in pool C for determining second place. 

This video does a REALLY good job of explain it so I highly recommend watching it a moment, then look at my numbers below.

 

So, if I'm doing my math right (and that's a HUGE if!) then:

Mexico - 0.101 (7 runs allowed over 69 innings.)
USA - 0.157 (17 runs over 108 innings)
Italy - 0.123 (10 runs over 81 innings)

So, if Italy wins, then USA is runner up and advances because USA beat Mexico head-to-head. But, if Mexico wins then it goes to the runs allow quotient, and if I'm understanding correctly things could get very interesting. If it's a super high scoring game, then that helps the US, but if it's low... particularly if Italy doesn't score a lot, then Mexico would win the first tie break and they'd be Pool B champs.

At this point I think they start over with the tie-breaker rules... that is they'll compare USA and Italy and the first tie breaker is head-to-head... that means USA it out.

So, we should be rooting for Italy tonight I guess... or at the very least if Mexico wins we want it to be a shoot out with lots and lots of scoring.

 

[Edman85]

I've got it in a spreadsheet, but it changes in extra innings.

[Edman85]

This only applies to a 9 inning game. Extra innings changes it.

[RedRamage]

Sweet @Edman85! I was thinking about fumbling around with this but wasn't sure if I'd get all the math right.

[Hongbit]

28 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

This only applies to a 9 inning game. Extra innings changes it.

Do you have any unread Twitter DM’s yesterday from a @USADerosa?

[RedRamage]

Column 1, Row 0... Need more runs!

[Hongbit]

Jon Berti from Troy HS helps out his birth country with a big homer 

[GalagaGuy]

Well that was easy, thanks Italy.

 

Edited yesterday at 12:27 AM by GalagaGuy

[RedRamage]

Now the only real danger is extended extra innings with low scoring. Seems unlikely.

[Sports_Freak]

So an Italy blowout and US advances?

[RedRamage]

If Italy wins, even if it's 15-14, the US advances. If Mexico wins, then it gets complicated.

[RedRamage]

Mexico loads the bases in the bottom of the 8th, but Italy gets out without allowing any runs. On to the 9th. At this point it would be nearly impossible for the US not to advance. It would require an amazing top of the 9th for Mexico to get back into the game. But even if that happened that helps the US because a high scoring game hurts both teams runs allowed quotient. Mexico would need to score a bunch AND it would need to go into extra innings AND it would need a LOT of extra innings AND Mexico would need to win for the US to be eliminated.

 

[GalagaGuy]

USA USA USA 🇺🇸

[casimir]

It’s baseball.  I’m used to MLB teams generally finish with records such that every team basically wins 2 out of 5 games or 3 out of 5 games or somewhere in between.  The margins on any daily game over a long period are thin.  So, look, all credit to Italy, they won the game.  But this tournament is such a small sample of what we’re used to as MLB fans.  I sometimes don’t know how to take an upset like this.

And then the other angle is how each game is played.  We don’t need to go any further than the pitching.  It’s handled completely differently and we al understand why that is.

I’ll admit my interest in this has grown with each tournament.  Sure, why not, it’s early March and I’m on withdrawal from baseball.  And the crowds, my goodness, the crowds for some of these games.  That’s really fun to see.  Sure, that buzz is tough to generate for lots of any random MLB game.  It’s apples and shoelaces.  But that’s one benefit to this shorter season tourney.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

It’s baseball.  I’m used to MLB teams generally finish with records such that every team basically wins 2 out of 5 games or 3 out of 5 games or somewhere in between.  The margins on any daily game over a long period are thin.  So, look, all credit to Italy, they won the game.  But this tournament is such a small sample of what we’re used to as MLB fans.  I sometimes don’t know how to take an upset like this.

And then the other angle is how each game is played.  We don’t need to go any further than the pitching.  It’s handled completely differently and we al understand why that is.

I’ll admit my interest in this has grown with each tournament.  Sure, why not, it’s early March and I’m on withdrawal from baseball.  And the crowds, my goodness, the crowds for some of these games.  That’s really fun to see.  Sure, that buzz is tough to generate for lots of any random MLB game.  It’s apples and shoelaces.  But that’s one benefit to this shorter season tourney.

The WBC is a way for fans to see international players who they would not otherwise see, but I can't take the competition seriously.  The primary goal of the Major League players is to prepare for the regular seaslon.  Even though some of them get excited about the WBC, I don't believe most of them are at peak performance in these games.  This is not the World Cup of baseball.  

[oblong]

I'm not interested at all in the WBC this time of year especially.  It'd be different if it were in the off season.  But it's just replacing spring training games.   It's not the olympics. 

[casimir]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

The WBC is a way for fans to see international players who they would not otherwise see, but I can't take the competition seriously.  The primary goal of the Major League players is to prepare for the regular seaslon.  Even though some of them get excited about the WBC, I don't believe most of them are at peak performance in these games.  This is not the World Cup of baseball.  

Oh, please don't misunderstand, I only look at this as entertainment.  I don't consider this an end all be all as far as which country has the best baseball player.

[Tiger337]

46 minutes ago, casimir said:

Oh, please don't misunderstand, I only look at this as entertainment.  I don't consider this an end all be all as far as which country has the best baseball player.

yes, I understood

[chasfh]

I like the WBC, full stop