05/26/2026 6:40p EDT Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers

[chasfh]

11 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I was just paraphrasing AJ’s response. I saw it agree with you that the play should have been made. I will add that I think an average outfielders is comfortably below that ball without needing to reach or jump or anything of that nature. 
 

Can we look that up in one of the catch probability databases?

xBA on that hit was .380, but that's probably also in part because it would have been a homer in seven other parks.

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

You expect Harris to pull off a trade for a Hall of Fame, cost controlled type pitcher for a guy who wants $40 million for 10 years? Good luck with that...we may get a 5th outfielder type, a relief pitcher and a lottery ticket. 😆😆

Expect?  I dunno about that.  Its hope.  Its the only armor I have at this point. 

 

[chasfh]

14 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

IDK, RF seems to be his position. Get a centerfielder, put Matt in RF and release Perez.

Maybe we can pick one up on Amazon Prime Day next month! 😉 

Edited Wednesday at 02:32 PM by chasfh

[Sports_Freak]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Maybe we can pick one up on Amazon Prime Day next month! 😉 

Ugh....bringing up my shopping addiction? 😅😅

[Sports_Freak]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

xBA on that hit was .380, but that's probably also in part because it would have been a homer in seven other parks.

The inning before, a ball was crushed to LF and Riley made a tremendous catch. That really should have told a competent manager that Vest didnt have good enough stuff to have him back out there for the 8th inning. I repeat, Hinch had a completely rested bullpen. If he doesn't trust his guys out there, say so. But just to sit on his hands and get mad at being questioned about lazy managing? Time for him to move on.

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Maybe we can pick one up on Amazon Prime Day next month! 😉 

This week, I ordered a pair of runner's compression socks and they sent me a pair of women's sneakers and two extra large tops.  Is it like that?  

[Shelton]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

xBA on that hit was .380, but that's probably also in part because it would have been a homer in seven other parks.

aren’t xBA and catch probability different concepts?
 

One based on what the hitter did to the ball.

 

The other based on how long the ball was in the air, where it landed, and where the fielder was positioned when the ball was hit. 

[gehringer_2]

34 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I don’t think AJ is in denial about anything. He was absolutely fine until he wasn’t. That specific scenario happens all the time, and it sucks when it happens to your team

fair enough - but for me the fact that Wenceel screwed up is no excuse for letting Vest work himself into such a deep hole. Philosophically, as much as I generally like Hinch's handling of pitchers, I still take the general view that he ofte - not just last night, tends to let guys get in more trouble before making a move than the arm chair manager in my recliner would. I assume it's mostly because  he has a match up plan worked out, and I assume that's what he's trying to stay on. I never want to have to bring in a guy with the bases loaded, that just too terrible for the guy coming in - I don't want to wait that long.

But as a long time fan, that is something more generally that i've always taken issue with: how often you see a pitcher get pulled after giving up 3 seeing eye infield bleeders "because he's in trouble", while you have a situation like last night where Vest's velo isn't good, he's giving up hard contact, his command isn't great - but "he's my guy".

So my complaint about that is a more long standing level of scepticism about the conventions of baseball managing.

Edited Wednesday at 02:57 PM by gehringer_2

[buddha]

27 minutes ago, Shelton said:

aren’t xBA and catch probability different concepts?
 

One based on what the hitter did to the ball.

 

The other based on how long the ball was in the air, where it landed, and where the fielder was positioned when the ball was hit. 

nerd fight!

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

This week, I ordered a pair of runner's compression socks and they sent me a pair of women's sneakers and two extra large tops.  Is it like that?  

Ask Sports Freak. He’s shopping for center fielders. He might end up with a gimpy utility guy instead. 😁

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Shelton said:

aren’t xBA and catch probability different concepts?
 

One based on what the hitter did to the ball.

 

The other based on how long the ball was in the air, where it landed, and where the fielder was positioned when the ball was hit. 

The other main difference is that xBA was easily available to me for the play, and catch probability was not. 😁

[chasfh]

14 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The other main difference is that xBA was easily available to me for the play, and catch probability was not. 😁

I guess the other thing I might add here is that it’s not as though xBA and catch probability are randomly correlated. It might not be 1:1 necessarily, but I would bet there is a fairly strong statistical correlation between them. Maybe I’ll look for that sometime. 

[Shelton]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I guess the other thing I might add here is that it’s not as though xBA and catch probability are randomly correlated. It might not be 1:1 necessarily, but I would bet there is a fairly strong statistical correlation between them. Maybe I’ll look for that sometime. 

Perhaps. If you find the answer I’d like to see it. 
 

I don’t know how often this leaderboard is updated, but our friend Wenceel is way at the bottom if you are looking. 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catch_probability
 

we know he didn’t make last night’s catch, but from the above you can see that he hasn’t made a single 3-star catch or above all year. 3-star catches are in the 50-75% catch probability bucket. 

Not one. Every catch he has made has been one that is caught more than 75% of the time. 
 

He’s 7x8 in the 76-90 bucket, and 11x11 in the 90-100 bucket. 
 

[Sports_Freak]

44 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Ask Sports Freak. He’s shopping for center fielders. He might end up with a gimpy utility guy instead. 😁

You mean to tell me that making a trade mid-season is so rare and unheard of that Harris can be excused for not doing his freaking job? Being a Harris lackey has been taken to a whole new level...

[chasfh]

13 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Perhaps. If you find the answer I’d like to see it. 
 

I don’t know how often this leaderboard is updated, but our friend Wenceel is way at the bottom if you are looking. 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catch_probability
 

we know he didn’t make last night’s catch, but from the above you can see that he hasn’t made a single 3-star catch or above all year. 3-star catches are in the 50-75% catch probability bucket. 

Not one. Every catch he has made has been one that is caught more than 75% of the time. 
 

He’s 7x8 in the 76-90 bucket, and 11x11 in the 90-100 bucket. 
 

Unless you already know, I would guess that catch rated as a 4-star.  

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

You mean to tell me that making a trade mid-season is so rare and unheard of that Harris can be excused for not doing his freaking job? Being a Harris lackey has been taken to a whole new level...

No need to get personal here.

That said, your characterization is lazy. 

[Sports_Freak]

15 hours ago, NorthWoods said:

I still think its a leadership issue in the clubhouse.    There is no dog in there to motivate them and/or to call people out.  

It starts with our POBO inability to bring in any legitimate bats to help our horrible lack of run scoring. Harris has wasted..what...a $200 million payroll? Just about every team in baseball makes trades, why is it SO difficult for him? Maybe Chris can wake up and clean house?

[Sports_Freak]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

No need to get personal here.

That said, your characterization is lazy. 

Thats rich...you call me out but when I return the favor, you balk. 🤣🤣

[Shelton]

40 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Unless you already know, I would guess that catch rated as a 4-star.  

I do not know and it’s certainly possible, mostly due to proximity to the wall. 
 

I don’t think it’s in the system yet because I looked at the videos for each of his “wall” opportunities and only one was a hit, and it wasn’t last night’s.

This makes me want to just check and see how long wenceel had to get to that spot. 

[Shelton]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Unless you already know, I would guess that catch rated as a 4-star.  

Ok, so best I can tell he had 6 seconds. And it’s looking like this one might be in the 95% bucket.   It is comparable to the catch he made at the wall on May 1, where he had 6.1 seconds, 64 feet needed to cover. 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Thats rich...you call me out but when I return the favor, you balk. 🤣🤣

I didn’t call you any names. It’s uncool.

[Sports_Freak]

51 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I didn’t call you any names. It’s uncool.

Uhhhh...I didn't call you a name. You just read into it. But you came right out and actually named me. And that's not cool, not cool at all.

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, Shelton said:

Ok, so best I can tell he had 6 seconds. And it’s looking like this one might be in the 95% bucket.   It is comparable to the catch he made at the wall on May 1, where he had 6.1 seconds, 64 feet needed to cover. 

Riley made a similar catch in LF to end the 7th. When a team is hitting rockets off a pitcher, it may be a good idea to replace him. Or just sit there so everyone can see how smart you are. We sure wouldn't want to overwork the bullpen. Fire Hinch...

[chasfh]

24 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Uhhhh...I didn't call you a name. You just read into it. But you came right out and actually named me. And that's not cool, not cool at all.

"Being a Harris lackey". "Lackey" is a pejorative name. I did not call you any kind of name at all, and certainly nothing like this. Please, just stop already.

[Shelton]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Riley made a similar catch in LF to end the 7th. When a team is hitting rockets off a pitcher, it may be a good idea to replace him. Or just sit there so everyone can see how smart you are. We sure wouldn't want to overwork the bullpen. Fire Hinch...

Yeah, that’s true, although Riley did catch the ball hit to him. I do wonder how it was him and not Vierling that got to him. 
 

Whether or not AJ should have pulled him because he gave up a fly ball that was caught in order to use an entirely different pitcher that probably isn’t good, I’m not so sure.