Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[romad1]

 

[romad1]

Comment below this about China taking notice is spot on

 

[romad1]

1 minute ago, romad1 said:

Comment below this about China taking notice is spot on

 

Imagine how sad Trump is to know that Putin’s wonder weapons are not all that.

Edited May 6, 2023 by romad1

[ewsieg]

2 hours ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

Ivan is done playing nice it seems

When did he ever play nice?  He's committed war crimes from the start of this war.  

Strategically this means nothing, Bakhmut was already a shell of its former self and just the latest example of what this war is doing to Ukraine.  It's Russia just trying to rub salt in the wounds.  

I've been skeptical of the Bakhmut strategy from Ukraine, but it's clear the 'win' Russia got in conquering and destroying this city cost them greatly.  Now let's root for a Ukraine offensive that actually leads to the end of this war.

[romad1]

15 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

When did he ever play nice?  He's committed war crimes from the start of this war.  

Strategically this means nothing, Bakhmut was already a shell of its former self and just the latest example of what this war is doing to Ukraine.  It's Russia just trying to rub salt in the wounds.  

I've been skeptical of the Bakhmut strategy from Ukraine, but it's clear the 'win' Russia got in conquering and destroying this city cost them greatly.  Now let's root for a Ukraine offensive that actually leads to the end of this war.

I don't think he wants the Ukrainians to win.

Edited May 6, 2023 by romad1

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

When did he ever play nice? 

this is not even the first phosphorus attack by RF of this conflict.

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, ewsieg said:

When did he ever play nice?  He's committed war crimes from the start of this war.  

Strategically this means nothing, Bakhmut was already a shell of its former self and just the latest example of what this war is doing to Ukraine.  It's Russia just trying to rub salt in the wounds.  

I've been skeptical of the Bakhmut strategy from Ukraine, but it's clear the 'win' Russia got in conquering and destroying this city cost them greatly.  Now let's root for a Ukraine offensive that actually leads to the end of this war.

Do you think you’re going to have an actual discussion with the guy?

[digitalpigsmuggler]

Ukraine war: Evacuation prompts Zaporizhzhia nuclear safety warning

Quote

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has voiced concern about the safety of Europe's largest nuclear plant as Russian occupation forces evacuate civilians from the nearby Ukrainian town of Enerhodar.

Quote

The IAEA statement said that "while operating staff remain at the site, Director General Grossi expressed deep concern about the increasingly tense, stressful, and challenging conditions for personnel and their families".

Quote

On Friday, the Russian-installed regional head Yevgeny Balitsky said that "in the past few days, the enemy has stepped up shelling of settlements close to the front line".

"I have therefore made a decision to evacuate first of all children and parents, elderly people, disabled people and hospital patients," he wrote on social media.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65515443

[1984Echoes]

The United Kingdom:

Ukraine should be in NATO.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-european-power-nato-cannot-070000405.html

[ewsieg]

On 5/6/2023 at 2:55 PM, chasfh said:

Do you think you’re going to have an actual discussion with the guy?

point taken

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

The United Kingdom:

Ukraine should be in NATO.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-european-power-nato-cannot-070000405.html

It occurs to me that people afraid of Russia starting a nuclear war or something over Ukraine going into NATO may be completely underestimating just how much autocrats love the situation Putin is in. If he were to try to start one, it would be the end of his gravy train in a couple of ways.

First of all, autocrats need the peace and stability of the global economy to maintain the level of comfort their ill-gotten billions affords them. If he nukes anyone, the money would stop flowing in because the entire world’s economic system would go into crisis and maybe even collapse, and then they wouldn’t be able to import all those Western luxury items they love so much, and no way Putin would be happy living out his days on local vodka and borscht. Also, the interconnectedness of the world’s money is such that they could never create a robust replacement economic system consisting of just them and the few sponsor states in their orbit. And China wouldn’t rush to join them because they too depend on a strong Western economy to maintain their own economic position in the world. For that reason, I think it’s more likely that China nukes Russia than Russia nukes the West. Which is to say, neither will happen.

Secondly, Putin’s domestic political power depends on a strong, propped-up West to act as the enemy that constantly threatens them and their cherished way of life, whatever that is. For that to continue, Putin needs to maintain an ongoing staring contest that functions as a sort of de facto detente on an indefinite basis. That’s the gift that keeps giving because then they can go back to that enemies well over and over in order to keep the peasants in an optimized state of fear of invasion, which serves as their motivation to support the one guy who is keeping everything from falling apart and landing on their heads. It’s Autocracy 101: create the crisis, then provide the solution. That may be why he started the war in Ukraine in the first place. Sure, he’d like the land eventually, but he loves the crisis now, so as long as he can keep the war going 1984-style, it’s a great situation for him.

It’s the same reason Kim Jong Un will never do anything, either. He might be a madman, but he’s not stupid and he’s not irrational, so he’s not going to do anything that will jeopardize his control of an entire country and of everything and everyone within it. Same with Putin. In that way, Putin would like to become Kim, and he is constantly working toward that. And if he wants to achieve it, he’s going to have to do everything he can to keep the West at arm’s length, while still maintaining the veneer of perceived crisis at home.

This is why I believe NATO should admit Ukraine as soon as possible. Ukraine is the crisis Putin wants to maintain, and with Ukraine officially under the protection of its explicit allies, Putin would be substantially weakened, maybe even mortally wounded, and he still ain’t gonna do **** in return, because if he did, that would be the literal end of him. He knows that. Maybe it’s time the rest of us internalize that as well.

[romad1]

20 minutes ago, chasfh said:

It occurs to me that people afraid of Russia starting a nuclear war or something over Ukraine going into NATO may be completely underestimating just how much autocrats love the situation Putin is in. If he were to try to start one, it would be the end of his gravy train in a couple of ways.

First of all, autocrats need the peace and stability of the global economy to maintain the level of comfort their ill-gotten billions affords them. If he nukes anyone, the money would stop flowing in because the entire world’s economic system would go into crisis and maybe even collapse, and then they wouldn’t be able to import all those Western luxury items they love so much, and no way Putin would be happy living out his days on local vodka and borscht. Also, the interconnectedness of the world’s money is such that they could never create a robust replacement economic system consisting of just them and the few sponsor states in their orbit. And China wouldn’t rush to join them because they too depend on a strong Western economy to maintain their own economic position in the world. For that reason, I think it’s more likely that China nukes Russia than Russia nukes the West. Which is to say, neither will happen.

Secondly, Putin’s domestic political power depends on a strong, propped-up West to act as the enemy that constantly threatens them and their cherished way of life, whatever that is. For that to continue, Putin needs to maintain an ongoing staring contest that functions as a sort of de facto detente on an indefinite basis. That’s the gift that keeps giving because then they can go back to that enemies well over and over in order to keep the peasants in an optimized state of fear of invasion, which serves as their motivation to support the one guy who is keeping everything from falling apart and landing on their heads. It’s Autocracy 101: create the crisis, then provide the solution. That may be why he started the war in Ukraine in the first place. Sure, he’d like the land eventually, but he loves the crisis now, so as long as he can keep the war going 1984-style, it’s a great situation for him.

It’s the same reason Kim Jong Un will never do anything, either. He might be a madman, but he’s not stupid and he’s not irrational, so he’s not going to do anything that will jeopardize his control of an entire country and of everything and everyone within it. Same with Putin. In that way, Putin would like to become Kim, and he is constantly working toward that. And if he wants to achieve it, he’s going to have to do everything he can to keep the West at arm’s length, while still maintaining the veneer of perceived crisis at home.

This is why I believe NATO should admit Ukraine as soon as possible. Ukraine is the crisis Putin wants to maintain, and with Ukraine officially under the protection of its explicit allies, Putin would be substantially weakened, maybe even mortally wounded, and he still ain’t gonna do **** in return, because if he did, that would be the literal end of him. He knows that. Maybe it’s time the rest of us internalize that as well.

rational actor model has some limitations.  

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, romad1 said:

rational actor model has some limitations.  

Is Putin willing to accept the ultimate loss just to follow through on a whim?

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Is Putin willing to accept the ultimate loss just to follow through on a whim?

The danger from a leader who is wounded and vulnerable and who harbors some millenialist** vison of his place in history is that he lashes out. 

 

**not as in those kids who refuse to do any work unless they get all the credit and a trophy; but as in the belief that some ideal world can only come after a cataclysm.

[digitalpigsmuggler]

Ukraine war: Russia launches 'biggest' kamikaze drone attack

Quote

Air raid sirens have sounded across Ukraine after Russia launched a fresh wave of drone and missile strikes.

Explosions were heard overnight in the capital, Kyiv, where the mayor said five people had been injured in the "biggest" kamikaze drone attack so far.

Quote

The Ukrainian military said the latest Russian raids - which lasted for more than four hours and were launched shortly after midnight - saw Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones swarm across the country.

Kyiv's Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said nearly 60 drones had been launched by Russia, describing it as the "biggest" such attack so far.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65524104

[romad1]

 

[1984Echoes]

10 hours ago, chasfh said:

...

This is why I believe NATO should admit Ukraine as soon as possible. Ukraine is the crisis Putin wants to maintain, and with Ukraine officially under the protection of its explicit allies, Putin would be substantially weakened, maybe even mortally wounded, and he still ain’t gonna do **** in return, because if he did, that would be the literal end of him. He knows that. Maybe it’s time the rest of us internalize that as well.

I proposed a year ago adding Ukraine immediately to NATO under one of 3 methods:

1) Admit Ukraine into NATO as soon as they are under control of all lands west of the Dnieper River - they've done this... but under normal requirements of controlling all lands within a countrie's borders this is not a viable option per NATO specs... However, my contention right from the beginning was that Ukraine is an EU-leaning, and ferocious anti-Russian country, starting in 2014. I know they have issues still trying to clean up all the old Soviet or Russian influenced (read: Russian owned businesses within Ukrainian borders...at least prior to Feb-2022...) corruption; but they are pointed only in one direction: West. The normal NATO process (ratification by all members, control of borders, military and economic and anti-corruption standards up to EU specs...), all but holds this as only a distant possibility. But I have more immediate objectives and sentiments.

2) Join a Confederation with Poland and Lithuania. This was an old Empire in the 16-18th centuries (called the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth if memory serves) which also included Byelorussia. Krakow-Warsaw-Kiev-Minsk-Vilnius. Give up sovereignty temporarily of Ukraine and conjoin with Poland immediately. This is a bit out of the box. But it automatically adds all Ukrainian territory (still west of the Dnieper) into NATO. Now NATO troops can swarm into "Poland" ("state" of Ukraine) immediately and establish a no-fly zone. Ukraine is "automatically" in NATO. All lands East of the Dnieper River, including Crimea, can be recognized as "disputed" lands. However, that means NATO and Russia are now immediately at war. Problematic for a lot of people. Not me, but... the "State of Ukraine" and the Nation of Poland directly in conflict with Russia over Crimea and all other occupied lands would cause severe heartache for those worried about Russia escalating into nuclear war. Me...? Call their bluff and confront them face-to-face. Add 50-100K NATO troops into western Ukraine ("State" west of the Dnieper) and let the Polish and Ukrainians decide what their intentions are with regaining all Ukrainian territories East of the Dnieper up to Russian borders (but not beyond) and including Crimea.

3) Establish a NATO no fly zone west of the Dnieper. Not with Ukraine as a part of NATO, but as a humanitarian necessity. Frees up Ukrainian troops, stops Russia from bombing Kiev and other western Ukrainian cities, and gives NATO an excuse to shoot down Russian jets and missiles and drones, as needed, in order to protect Ukrainian cities and citizens from Russian terrorism.

 

But that's just me.

[romad1]

I guess the VDV (airborne troops) didn't show up because they have been slaughtered over the past year. 

[romad1]

its going well over there.

[romad1]

Probably taking all the blond-haired children with them.  

[romad1]

This guy is a special kind of jackass

 

[romad1]

Good deal. 

[romad1]

Hopefully true. 

[romad1]

you love to see it

[romad1]

Reading in the comments that they cancelled the flyover.   Scared of the Ukrainians even in Moscow!