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The Republican Conundrum


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Have to be a Trumpie to win the Primary

Can't win the General being a Trumpie outside of a deep red state - and even there some erosion is occuring. 

I love it

I don't know anyway around this for them.   They have to support who the people vote for in the primary.   They can't just pick someone else.  Of course they could rig the vote, which would be hysterically funny, but I don't think they can get away with it.   

And if you think the Trumpie candidates are going to be less Trumpie the next time (you know, listen to part elders who tell them to cool down the rhetoric), you obviously don't know who you are dealing with.  They're gonna be worse next time.  Elders think they were too extreme and they think they weren't extreme enough.   

The Republican controlled congress will only serve to gum up the works the next two years and won't get anything accomplished (which is why you should see a lot of activity the next few weeks before January 6th).    Because the moderate Republicans aren't going to get much done, the loonies will be the loud ones in Congress, which will make them look worse. 

Oh, and the abortion issue is only going to become more of a clarion call as more states get stricter on abortion rights.........meaning Democratic turnout will remain high with young voters and Suburban women.    

and Orange Jesus could be indicted on a number of federal and state charges in 2023 too. 

 

Grab the Popcorn.    Grab the infused Gummies.   This will be fun to watch.  

 

 

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Because of some friends I have I think I have a good window when I eavesdrop on this Facebook posts. This guys is done with Trump.  All in on Ron. But so many people are already calling Desantis deep state. These are people who believe in 2000 mules.  They really exist. 
 

it’s not a stretch that without trump in the picture are we in some kind of 2012 model?  

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Losing changes everything.  GOP top brass have faced the stark reality they are in trouble running Trumpie candidates in big elections.  MAGA has become bigger than Trump, so yes, you're still going to have some Trumpie folks get into big elections and at the more local level you'll have more.  

The bigger change will come from within the party.  Top brass allowed the crazy when they were winning, they are done now.  They will find a way to ensure less Trumpie candidates get pushed.  The democratic party is already working to help ensure Biden is protected from any primary run against him.  Republicans will start to do the same.

Edited by ewsieg
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7 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

The bigger change will come from within the party.  Top brass allowed the crazy when they were winning, they are done now. 

The interesting question to me is what happens with Murdoch/Fox dumping Trump. Is MAGA truly a bottom up movement or simply the result of years of top down engineering by monied interests like Murdoch and the Kochs? Or IOW, if the conservative leadership (and I don't mean the party here - I mean the money and media powers) swing to another candidate, can they elect him or do the MAGA's just stay home because it really is Trump himself, or does Trump just barrel through the 2024 primaries anyway despite them? Lots of talking head guessing going on about these questions but I don't believe any of it is yet at all clear.

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10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The interesting question to me is what happens with Murdoch/Fox dumping Trump. Is MAGA truly a bottom up movement or simply the result of years of top down engineering by monied interests like Murdoch and the Kochs? Or IOW, if the conservative leadership (and I don't mean the party here - I mean the money and media powers) swing to another candidate, can they elect him or do the MAGA's just stay home because it really is Trump himself, or does Trump just barrel through the 2024 primaries anyway despite them? Lots of talking head guessing going on about these questions but I don't believe any of it is yet at all clear.

Agreed that there are more questions than answers but IMO, it doesn't really matter if MAGA is a bottom up movement or years of top down engineering, in the end, money is the key to where this goes and that's why I think Trump and the GOP are done.    (Doesn't mean he can't steamroll his way to the candidate again, it's just the GOP knows they will lose if he is nominated.)

Both parties still rely on big donors first and foremost.  Small donors have been focused on by both parties in recent years, but still, you need to keep the big donors happy.  You don't have any sign of trouble in the Democratic camp related to either right now.  On the GOP side, you have big donors that are clearly done, or at least publicly questioning the direction of the party.  As you mentioned with one that could make a huge difference.  Add in they have some small donor issues that the dems don't have to worry about, and it's a perfect storm.

1) Losing big donors in general will force the civil war that I think even democrats have hoped for within the GOP.  

2) Losing Murdoch hurts from a big donor standpoint, but even worse, he owns media that is sympathetic to conservative ideas.  The closest thing comparable to this on the left would be losing Soros and even than, while he supports some media outlets, he's not the owner of them.

3) Trump recognized the sizable chunk of small donation donors and started campaigns to ensure that money goes to him, not the GOP.  So while not the biggest chunk, even that is getting attacked by Trump.

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I think it's the Trump brand that is elevating the GOP.  He's got a distinct group of 10% of today's GOP voters that won't vote for anyone else that's not in the family.  These people aren't even Desantis fans.  Once they go....

The problem is the only way to get them is to have the GOP nominee attend a Trump rally as if it's a Trump campaign.  So yeah that might get those people but then you have the anti factor we see today.  So who knows....

Couldn't happen to nicer people.  I'd love to see Ronna dumped.  Sold your family out... for what?

 

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15 hours ago, oblong said:

Because of some friends I have I think I have a good window when I eavesdrop on this Facebook posts. This guys is done with Trump.  All in on Ron. But so many people are already calling Desantis deep state. These are people who believe in 2000 mules.  They really exist.

If course the vote mules exist. It's all over the Internet! What is you, ignant?!

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1 hour ago, oblong said:

Couldn't happen to nicer people.  I'd love to see Ronna dumped.  Sold your family out... for what?

 

I think it was a bet that a one-party right-wing fascist autocracy would win America, and if so, they would be showered with riches and power, and if not, they would pivot and regain their footing in a moderate new landscape, because short memories.

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