I thought before the game that Michigan could win but JJ would have to have a great game and Michigan would have to be largely mistake-free. Neither happened but they still won. I'd give the defense an A+ and JJ a B and special teams an F. The win probability, in my own melodramatic mind, went something like this:
- Kickoff: Alabama 55%, Michigan 45%
- Muffed punt into Alabama TD: Alabama 90%, Michigan 10%
- End of 1st quarter: Michigan 60%, Alabama 40%
- Halftime: Michigan 60%, Alabama 40%
- End of 3rd quarter: Michigan 50%, Alabama 50%
- Midway through 4th quarter: Alabama 80%, Michigan 20%
- After Michigan tied it 20-20: Michigan 50%, Alabama 50%
- Start of OT: Michigan 60%, Alabama 40%
- After Corum's OT TD: Michigan 75%, Alabama 25%
- 4th and 3: Michigan 80%, Alabama 20% (less than 50% chance for Bama to convert, then I'd still favor Michigan in 2OT)