Dem turnout was poor in big blue states like New York and California. Biden isn't losing New York and California. Dem turnout was good however in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada etc.
Democrats won in states that matter. It was a bloodbath for Republicans in Michigan. Marlinga who had no support at all came within 0.5% of beating James who was very well funded after running two senate campaigns.
Democrats have overperformed in just about every election since the insurrection. I do think Trump will motivate people to vote against him. I also think the Trump appeal is waning some. I do think it's also possible people who reluctantly voted for him in 2020 will stay home as well.