Motown Bombers

Three senate races show Dems leads by their formula and they have them losing every one.

What's truly amazing is Nevada. Their polling average has Sisolak losing, they use the same adjustment of the polling averages being off which in Nevada were off in Democrats favor. That makes Sisolak leading, and they still have it as a GOP gain.

Something is totally up with all these GOP funded polls flooding the landscape, RCP picking them up and not nonpartisan or liberal polls and creating an average that skews to the Republicans.

It was probably from someone who has a financial stake in Seinfeld and Castle Rock. One Steve Bannon.

RCP is just ignoring favorable polls for Democrats, despite that, Whitmer is literally not trailing in a single poll and they still have Dixon winning. They say they are accounting then for GOP being underestimated, and yet they don't account for Democrats winning the last 6 statewide elections.

Is that Costanza on the left?

Better late than never I guess.

I get Marshall Applewhite vibes when she uses that filter when doing a video interview.

Tommy Tuberville would no longer be the dumbest member of the senate.

I just don't see Hogan making it through a Republican primary. In a previous universe, Charlie Baker would make an ideal Republican candidate as well. Kristi Noem is someone who underperforms in South Dakota. I don't think she would win nationally. Lake is a non politician who has the same charisma that Trump has but less offensive.

It seems like the media wants DeSantis to run in 2024, but I think Kari Lake would be a more formidable candidate. She's more photogenetic and better on TV than DeSantis. I get a lot of Nixon vibes with DeSantis. He's very stiff and has no charisma.

The offense is already ready made for a new QB. Good OL, solid run game and a couple receivers.

Looks like they can save $30 million in cuts of Okwara, Brockers and Vatai. Another $20 million if they cut Goff. If they draft a QB, they can clear $50 million and sign an Andy Dalton type as a place holder. They also have smaller contracts they can clear space with like $6 million post June 1st release of Charles Harris

If Mastriano wins, it would definitely be terrifying because it would likely mean Democrats had a very rough night. Pennsylvania is one of the few states where the governor appoints the secretary of state and Mastriano is already on record saying he wants to cancel everyone's voter registration and make them re-register. Shapiro winning is more important than Fetterman winning.

I'm also not convinced the bottom is going to fall out of rural Michigan. Biden won Leelanau County, came close to flipping Grand Traverse which is getting bluer every election, and Emmet County is trending blue. Democrats aren't likely to win these areas consistently, but the NW lower peninsula is trending blue. The rest of northern Michigan is losing population. Traverse City is targeting young college educated now that more people are working remotely. The area that is probably going to trend even more red is the thumb area.

I've been to Pitsburgh, and it was a neat town, but it was in the middle of Deliverance and I was there before Trump.

In terms of black percentage of population, Michigan is over double Minnesota and right there with Illinois for the highest in the Midwest. Also, rural Michigan is simply not as bad as rural Pennsylvania. The UP for example was 57-41 in favor of Trump. You don't have many 80-20 areas. Pennsylvania is basically West Virginia but with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. 31% of Michigan is college educated vs 38% of Minnesota. Michigan is 15% black vs 7% for Minnesota. Blacks are more partisan than college educated but lower turnout. If the black vote turned out in Detroit, Michigan would very much be Minnesota.

A Republican hasn't won statewide in Michigan since Trump in 2016 won by 0.2% and there have been 6 statewide elections since. A Republican hasn't won a senate election since 1994. A Republican presidential candidate hasn't won 50% of the vote since 1988. I don't think Dems winning Michigan is a bright spot. It's a blue leaning state that can be won by Republicans and that's with Detroit at under 50% turnout. Michigan is closer to Minnesota than Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

These aren't standard midterm dynamics. We've had half the population lose a fundamental right and our democracy was under siege. I can't recall a recent midterm when that ever happened. It's not like Republicans are actually leading polls. A lot of non-partisan polls have them tied or losing. Early voting in many states appears to be encouraging for Democrats plus the special elections. I also haven't seen evidence that Trumpers show up when Trump is not on the ballot.

It's guaranteed to happen in Pennsylvania. Shapiro may have a big enough lead that they can call it early but I'm not sure about Fetterman.

Most people say the house is gone because that's what is suppose to happen but this is the first general election since Dobbs and the insurrection. We had a spat of special elections post Dobbs where Democrats overperformed every one of them.

Brad Holmes quote was "If our record was reversed and it made sense for us, then we would have still done it." That doesn't come off to me as he insisted he would have made he trade if records were reversed.