Obama won by 4 in 2012, Clinton by 5 in 2016, and Biden by 10 in 2020. McAuliffe won in 2013 (even with his party in the White House) and Northam won by 9. The trend seems to be blue. It's no California but it doesn't seem both are starting from the same starting position. All indications are that turnout is also up in Democratic areas. It's possible McAuliffe could end up with the same vote total as Northam and win by a less margin.