MichiganCardinal

The Cardinals are doomed.

My Final Mock Draft 1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama 2. Houston Texans: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky 3. Arizona Cardinals: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State 4. Indianapolis Colts: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State 5. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN): Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech 6. Detroit Lions (from LAR): Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama 7. Philadelphia Eagles (Trade w/ LV): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia 8. Atlanta Falcons: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois 9. Chicago Bears (from CAR): Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee 10. Las Vegas Raiders (Trade w/ PHI): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon 11. Tennessee Titans: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida 12. Houston Texans (from CLE): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State 13. Detroit Lions (Trade w/ GB): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas 14. New England Patriots: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama 15. New York Jets: Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern 16. Washington Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State 17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State 18. Green Bay Packers (Trade w/ DET): Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia 20. Seattle Seahawks: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee 21. Los Angeles Chargers: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa 22. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Addison, WR, USC 23. Minnesota Vikings: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland 24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College 25. New York Giants: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah 26. Dallas Cowboys: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia 27. Buffalo Bills: O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida 28. Cincinnati Bengals: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama 29. New Orleans Saints (from DEN thru SF): Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia 30. Philadelphia Eagles: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson 31. Kansas City Chiefs: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland Lions 2.17 (#48) - Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa 2.24 (#55) - Quan Martin, DB, Illinois [3.18 (#81) - Traded to Green Bay Packers, along with 2024 5th round pick] 4.28 (#130 - Trade w/ BUF in exchange for D’Andre Swift) - Max Duggan, QB, TCU 5.17 (#152) - Michael Wilson, WR, Stanford 5.24 (#159) - Riley Moss, CB, Iowa 6.6 (#183 - from DEN) - Antonio Mafi, OG, UCLA 6.17 (#194) - Zack Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion

I think he's correct that it was not an accident. I think either the Raiders or Titans leaked it.

FWIW, I agree. He should be easily #1, but teams being hyper-focused on finding the the next Mahomes/Allen/Hurts/Burrow/Jackson is what is making Young #1, and is making scouts fall in love with Richardson and Levis.

When I think of generational prospects, I think of guys like Luck, Lawrence, and Williams, all of whom had/have supposed floors above a Goff/Ryan threshold. I am not saying he is the next Mahomes, but I am saying I think he’s (apparently) falling for the wrong reasons and he’s the only QB I see as worth entertaining taking in this draft.

I know I’m higher on Stroud than most, but I think the Goff comp for Stroud is lazy and simplistic. There are very few pure pocket passers in the league, which I think is part of the reason he is dropping. Teams want their shiny new toy like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Lamar that can be both a running back and their quarterback. Of pure pocket passers in the league currently, you’re really only looking at guys like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff. But past guys would have included Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. If the comps had said Rodgers instead of Goff, they would have been no more right or wrong, because mechanically they’re all three similar players, they would have just set a much higher expectation for results. It’s easier to say “Goff” and have those expectations be surpassed than say “Rodgers” and have him turn out more like Goff. Stroud’s floor is probably Jared Goff / Matt Ryan. Solid game manager who can and will win with pieces around him. And I think that’s a really good floor, definitely better than any of Young/Richardson/Levis. His ceiling is probably more like Rodgers, a cerebral pocket passer who can make throws on a dime. I would take him at #6 unless Anderson is also there, and if he does a Fields-like fall towards the Titans at #11, I would consider moving up from #18 to get him. Sit him behind Jared for a year, two if he needs it, and then give him the keys.

Sure, but that was a groundswell and planned attack, not a single anonymous post claiming to be something they may or may not be. A week ago Young's odds to go #1 skyrocketed overnight and a few days ago Levis' odds of being the #2 pick jumped quite a bit, and neither of those were predicated by Reddit posts. I think the sharps generally do have connections that lead their money to picks, especially in something like this that is pre-decided but "secret".

I think it's more than just that post. Reddit is powerful, but something behind the scenes is going on to make a line jump from 50/1 to 4/1 in the matter of about 24 hours. Not saying he's going to the Panthers, but there might be some fire behind this seemingly nonsensical reporting linking him to all three of the Panthers, Texans, and Colts.

Can’t wait until the Jets start 2-7 and all of a sudden Rodgers is “hurt” and out for the rest of the season.

A 2nd, a swap of 1sts, and a conditional 1st is too much for an old, annoying, and no-longer-great Rodgers.

If Levis goes #2 to the Texans it will be because the Colts played them like a fiddle. He would be there at #12. I also think it would be great for the Lions. Dramatically increases the odds Anderson is there at #6.

McShay ran a pretty ambiguous "character concerns" story on Carter in December (before the drag racing had even happened) and was largely vilified for it. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/todd-mcshay-georgia-jalen-carter-character-criticism/n3rve8vllbzkmuvclyfcelcf

I think it is this combined with the work ethic concerns. If Carter was a Ndamukong Suh once-in-a-generation type prospect, this might be a different conversation, because even if Suh didn't give it 100% (which was never a problem), his 80% was good enough to dominate and his 50% was probably still good enough. Carter is one of the best players in the draft, but he's not generational. His 80% will probably find him struggling, and his 50% will have him out of the league.

I could be wrong. I think he's been off for a while though based off work ethic concerns and that everything since has been a smokescreen towards hoping the Seahawks will take him, or a team will trade up for him.

Sports betting for your sport is of course a big deal. If a year passes and the NFL declines to reinstate Cephus I don’t imagine I would argue with that. It’s common sense that you can’t bet on your sport and there are massive potential ramifications to the sport of doing so. But Jameson Williams betting on Michigan-Ohio State or Alabama-Tennessee is not treason, because it doesn’t matter. One thing has no possible way of being related to the integrity of the NFL. (The books may be different, but that’s their problem). And the NFL knows that, or it wouldn’t be allowed at all (like NFL gambling). To say you can do X here but not here and objectifying that mistake of location as a mistake that is 3x worse to the sport than Adrian Peterson’s act? That’s where they lose me. I also disagree that the NFL being in bed with sports gambling isn’t a big deal. This isn’t 1919 at all. Not only can you gamble at the press of a button from anywhere, the NFL can track that gambling just as easily. This isn’t some Black Sox back alley mob envelope of cash shady dealing. Clearly they can differentiate between those who gamble on the NFL and those who don’t. And FWIW, if the 1919 Sox had bet on the horses instead of the series, they wouldn’t be the Black Sox.

Maybe some parallels related to the maturity, but I don’t think Carter’s immaturity is what got him knocked off the Lions board. Though it didn’t help, and may have been the final straw, I think way back in January when the reports came out that Carter didn’t have a strong work ethic, that’s what did him in for the Lions. Jameson may have made a dumb decision (like Carter), but I firmly believe he’s going to work his ass off until week seven and come out of the gate to be an instant difference maker. Carter OTOH makes a mistake and he shows up at his pro day overweight and completely out of shape to run basic drills.

TIL that CJ Stroud's full name is Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV. Where does the J come from?!? #CharacterFlaw

That's what I think makes six games ridiculous. I understand that the NFL is mad that they couldn't ban all gambling outright, but the answer to that isn't to make a mountain out of a mole hill with suspensions lasting longer than those for abusing children.

RapSheet not knowing is probably more significant. I would presume the policy applies to him as an NFL employee.

I saw that, though he also tweeted this the other day (after he published that mock)...

But if we argue it's a slippery slope, why does the location the buttons are pressed matter? Whether the player does it in the lounge at Allen Park (not allowed), or a couple hundred yards away on the sidewalk, it's the same behavior. I think Hongbit is right that a 1/3 season banishment is entirely excessive for conduct that - when compared to other punishments levied by the NFL - is an absolute nothing-burger.

If you told me yesterday that news would break today that multiple players and staff on the Lions were involved in a gambling ring, I think this is about the best outcome we could have hoped for. The players who were released may have likely been released by September anyway. With Jamo able to fully participate in training camp, I would expect him to storm out of the gates in the 7th game and be an instant playmaker. I don't expect training wheels in the way he got late last year. He'll have fresh legs too in a time when many guys are starting to get hurt.

I don't think this changes things really. Maybe a very slightly more likely chance of taking Bijan or Jahmyr. Comparing Carter's concerns with William's mistake isn't really useful. Carter's primary concerns are with not being a hard worker, with some cherries on top of legal trouble, stupid choices, and immaturity. Williams is only the stupid choices and immaturity. I think I have already advocated for this, but I would like to see an offer for something like #6, #55, and a 2024 3rd for #3 and DeAndre Hopkins. He would have a place on this team with and without Jamo.

Expensive gambling loss.