Mr.TaterSalad

For the record, I'd be fine with Za'Darius Smith and think we could get him for a mid/late round pick. That said, Hendrickson has been and is the guy I want most. I think you're getting a high end talent, with a high motor, good football instincts, and a love for the game. A guy who has played with this coaching staff in New Orleans and someone there familiar with. A guy who is a perfect scheme fit to replace Hutch this season. A guy who played alongside Reader and has familiarity with him from their time with the Bengals. Best of all though, given that he'll turn 30 this year, I think he provides us with the best trade value. With guys like Crosby or Garrett you're likely surrendering multiple first round picks. With Hendrickson, I can't imagine having to give up more than next year's first rounder. Maybe you have to throw in an extra mid or late round pick in the deal to Cincinnati, but I'd doubt much more than that. Hendrickson being 30 this season is a big plus in this deal for as getting the best value out of it. He's a "superstar" player, easily capable of being a #1 DE/Edge guy and being our primary pass rusher off the end. And if you can get him a new contract to keep him for the next 2-3 years, you could have far and away the best D-Line in the league with Hutch, Hendrickson, McNeil, Reader, and Levi. Trey Hendrickson is the new Chase Young. Although unlike Chase, Hendrickson has been highly productive throughout most of his career. He isn't just potential and what could be, he has the proven stat line to back it up.

It's just a neverending steam of racism and bigotry from these Trump surrogates.

Would you be tempted to trade for a tackle at the deadline?

There's another certain singer, from the Detroit area, not named Eminem, whose also a Dem. You can find him down on mainstreet.

Sheila is a Democrat I know that based on available voting data.

I don't what what Campbell's politics are or are not. However, we do know that Calvin is a Democrat. She should do an ad featuring Calvin Johnson and target it towards white men and black men. It should air next Sunday during the Lions game and be targeted online towards these demographics.

Hell of an ad! The Harris team has great local ads in Detroit, Philly, and Pittsburgh.

Why would they defect now though? We've know for the last 10 years Trump is all of a bigot, racist, xenophobe, anti-Semitic, Islamophobic, misogynist, illiberal, undemocratic, authoritarian, fascist-adjacent (at minimum). If they were going to defect, wouldn't they have had every opportunity to do so in 2020 during that election? I can't help but wonder if Democrats have squeezed all the votes out of disaffected Republicans possible. Maybe not, I'd like to think we haven't.

The Bengals are 3-5. They are not making the playoffs after losing yesterday. Trey Hendrickson played with this coaching staff, both Campbell and Glenn in New Orleans. Trey Hendrickson also costs less than Crosby given his age. I really hope they're calling on Trey Hendrickson.

Here are my big worries and some of my big hopes. I could be right, somewhat right, somewhat wrong, or completely wrong about any of these as could we all. Who knows what will happen. Worries . . . 1. Polls are yet again underestimating the total turnout and overall support for Donald Trump. They've underestimated him in the past two elections his run in and may well be doing it a third time. 2. The electorate is being divided into college educated people vs. non-college educated people. While Republicans are losing ground with voters with a college degree, we are losing ground with voters with no college degree or college education period. I worry that are losses in non-college educated voters or voters with only some college are outpacing their losses with people with a college degree or some college. 3. White women went for Trump +7 last time in 2020. I worry that even with abortion on the ballot, white women, even if they themselves are pro choice, will still choose to vote Trump over Harris. They've been a reliable Trump voting block when he's run before. 4. Democrats are losing ground with young men and Trump/Republicans are gaining ground with them. While it appears more young women are going to turn out and vote than young men, they were still a very important part of the Biden coalition in 2020 and I fear we can't afford much, if any, slippage with these voters. 5. Hispanic voters, in particular, Hispanic men, seem to be trending away from Democrats and Harris. Another demographic I worry we can't afford any slippage with. 6. People are overestimating just how many Haley voters or moderate Republicans or disaffected Republicans are going to crossover for Harris. I worry this is being grossly overstated. Sure, you can anecdotally find these voters, maybe even a decent number of them to start an organization like Republican Voters Against Trump. But I sorta fella like all the juice has been squeezed out of that orange and there simply aren't enough crossover disaffected Republicans to make an impact on the election results. 7. Arab-American and Muslim-American voters in Michigan sitting it out, voting third party for Jill Stein, or voting for Trump. Many of them may be mad about the situation in the Middle East or shifting Republican because they are more culturally conservative and aligned with them. 8. Swing and independent voters simply don't see how unhinged Trump and his campaign surrogates have become. All of us are terminally online and monitor the news cycle and what's going on in the world 24/7. Many swing and independent voters consume a few minutes worth of news each week and each month. So while we look at the MSG rally and all the horrible, repugnant things said there, will your average voter even see it? Do they consume enough news or see this kind of news in social media algorithms to be aware of the chaos and depravity that's unfolding? I worry they have fond memories of the Trump economy and won't see or care about this news and will simply vote for Trump. Hopeful . . . 1. Young women and black women are going to turn out in large numbers and boost the Democrats. I do feel like there is a noticeable enthusiasm among white women under 40 and black women of all ages to go and vote for Harris. Many are angry, fed up, and ready to vote. 2. Trump is running a bad campaign. This year's campaign from Trump is unlike his 2016 and 2020. He is off message all the time. He is ranting and raving all the time. He is more racist, more xenophobic, more sexist, more Islamophobic, more anti-Semitic, and more unhinged than ever before. His poor messaging and lack of a coherent argument will hurt his campaign efforts. He's also outsourced his door knocking and ground game efforts to an inexperienced person in Elon Musk. So I feel better knowing that someone whose never run a political campaign, field program, or coordinated a get out the vote effort is operating Trump's voter engagement efforts on the ground. I also feel better that they are using paid canvassers to do it as opposed to just regular, enthusiastic volunteers. 3. Harris has, for the most part, run an effective campaign. She seems to have solid messaging towards voters and various subgroups of voters. She also has stayed on message herself as a candidate and has delivered that message right to the different subgroups she has needed too. She also seemingly has the stronger door knocking operation on the ground. Her campaign has activated individual volunteers, union organizations, and has paid canvassers to top it all off. 4. Independents and swing voters will break our way in the closing weeks of the campaign. I do feel this does have a good chance to happen. That our closing message is better and Trump is more unhinged than ever. I feel good about the polling showcasing that Harris polls better on the question of "who fights for people like me more". That those voters, many of whom may not be tried and true Democrats, will be propelled towards Harris. Thus, that will improve her vote margins and overall vote totals with independent and swing voters. 5. I'm wrong about all or a good portion of the things I'm worried about.

Then that is great news for Team Democracy and might bode well for us on election night.

Unless they are oversampling Ds in the poll.

And again, polling has undercounted Trump's support both times he's run for office.

Polls have undercounted Trump every time he's been on the ballot. Trump won white women by +7 in 2020. And every election since Dobbs has been an off presidential election, where Trump is not on the ballot. Some of these voters are not Republicans, they are Trump fans. They aren't showing up for Tudor Dixon or Dr. Oz or Blake Master or whatever Republican it is that doesn't have the last name of Trump. Last time we had a Presidential election white women went to Trump. Many of those white women probably didn't show up in any of the midterms or special elections because they are for Trump, not your average Republican. I want to be positive and optimistic, it's just very hard when I look at this data and look at how Trump has overperformed polling in both elections he's been apart of.

There are many white women who love Trump. Trump performed well with white women in the past. He won white women by 7 points in 2020 over Biden. There are many white women who may be pro choice, care about abortion, but are still voting for Trump.

From his thread he's saying most of the remaining swing state voters are modeled for Republicans. So then, what can we say about the ~16m likely swing-state voters who haven't voted yet? Most of them are Republicans: Partisan comp: AZ: 41% are Rs, 29% D GA: 35%R 41%D MI: 42%R 44%D NC: 33%R 29%D PA: 50%R 39%D WI: 50%R 28%D And roughly ~60% of them will probably vote on E-Day

Morris is suggesting though that by raw vote numbers, leaving the polls aside, that more Rs have earlier voted AND there is still much more R vote outstanding. If that's true, how do Ds possibly overcome this? Even if non-party affiliates and independent swing voters break there way, Rs already have a lead and still have a cushion because of their voters who still haven't voted yet according to the early voting data provided.

Very little of this early voting data looks good for Dems. This EV data from Elliott Morris seems to suggest Republicans will have a comfortable margin of victory.

Did non-Republican/MAGA aligned polls really predict a red wave though in 2022? I don't think they did. Many of the polls in fact, like Morning Consult and Big Village, had Democrats in the lead on the generic congressional ballot. There were media outlets that were calling for a red wave, but mainstream polling didn't exactly indicate one.

All of our Arab-American, Palestinian-American, and Muslim-American friends need to see this ****. I've been critical on how the Biden-Harris administration has handled the war in Gaza, but this is proof that it can and likely will get worse for Palestinians in Gaza.

He was sorta, kinda, albeit in a more coherent fashion, making this type of case at the end of the 2016 election when he thought he could lose. In spite of that attitude, he still got the win. Many Americans won't see just how unhinged he's gotten now and they won't see the MSG debacle. They'll remember positive things about the economy or get scared on immigration and vote for him anyways.

Everything about that MSG rally was an unmitigated disaster. All the viral clips are not working in their favor. I'm all for comedians being protected with free speech and being able to tell jokes without censorship. However, when nearly every joke was racist, xenophobic, Islamaphobic, or antisemitic, you might want to reconsider your career in comedy if that's all you got. And to let that guy go on stage and tell those jokes is incredible. Whatever staffer cleared that is a total moron.

Democrats need to tone down the rhetoric don't ya know.

So the Trump campaign and their prominent surrogates closing messages are that America is a trash can, Puerto Rico is full of garbage people, the Congo is sending criminals here to attack our way of life, the election might or might not be stolen depending on who wins, Kamala is for they/them trans people, and she's also a c***. I don't know what to say other that please go out and vote. Please get everyone you know to go out and vote.