bobrob2004

Bobrob’s 2023 Preseason Prediction #2 – Eduardo Jose Rodriguez Hernandez Eduardo Rodriguez is entering his second year with the Tigers and his eighth year overall. He’s at a tricky age; at age 30 he’s either still in his prime or has already started his decline. After having a 4.74 ERA in 2021, seeing a 4.05 ERA in 2022 looks hopeful. However, looking deeper into the stats, did he really have a bounce back year? 2018 – 3.82 ERA | 3.65 FIP | 26.4% K% | 8.1% BB% 2019 – 3.81 ERA | 3.86 FIP | 24.8% K% | 8.7% BB% 2020 – N/A 2021 – 4.74 ERA | 3.32 FIP | 27.4% K% | 7.0% BB% 2022 – 4.05 ERA | 4.43 FIP | 18.4% K% | 8.7% BB% El Gualo’s ERA was close to his FIP during his 2018 and 2019 seasons. After not choosing to pitch during the COVID 2020 season, his luck flipped from 2021 to 2022; in 2021 his ERA was worse than his FIP (suggesting back luck) and in 2022 his ERA was better than his FIP (suggesting good luck). In fact, most of his stats were at or near career lows last year including FIP (tied with 2016), strikeout rate, and walk rate (tied with 2016 and 2019). This trend doesn’t look good going forward. During the 2022 season, Rodriguez suffered an injury to his ribcage and later went on the restricted list due to personal reasons. He missed a major part of the season, which could explain his poor stats. If he remains healthy for the full 2023 season and doesn’t miss a significant portion of the season, there is a good chance he can get his strikeout rate and walk rate back to career norms. Another concerning stat is his innings pitched. He has only pitched over 200 innings once in his career, in 2019. He averaged 6.0 innings/start that year. This fell in 2021, when he only averaged 5.1 innings/start. This improved slightly in 2022 at 5.4 innings/start. The number of innings starting pitchers have pitched has declined greatly over the last decade or so; only 8 pitchers had 200+ innings pitched in 2022 compared to 31 pitchers in 2012. Therefore, it is unlikely Rodriguez will reach 200 innings again, even if he logs in 30-32 starts. As mentioned earlier, with the rule changes all favoring more offense, it will also negatively affect pitchers’ numbers. Even if Rodriguez can get his strikeouts and walks back at career norms, it is likely that he’ll give up more hits, which will result in more runs and a higher ERA. League ERA was at 3.97 in 2022, first time it has been below 4.00 since 2015. It’ll be interesting to see what it’ll be in 2023. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 169 IP | 9-11 W/L | 3.96 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 152 K | 55 BB ZiPS DC – 154 IP | 8-10 W/L | 3.88 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 153 K | 51 BB THE BAT – 156 IP | 9-12 W/L | 4.16 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 131 K | 50 BB ATC – 156 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.03 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 143 K | 51 BB FGDC – 162 IP | 9-11 W/L | 3.92 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 152 K | 53 BB RotoChamp – 160 IP | 9-10 W/L | 3.99 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 146 K | 53 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 136 IP | 7 W | 3.84 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 138 K | 45 BB My Prediction: 2022 Prediction – 202 IP | 14-9 W/L | 3.79 ERA | 1.277 WHIP | 221 K | 68 BB 2022 Actual – 91 IP | 5-5 W/L | 4.05 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 72 K | 34 BB 2023 Prediction – 128 2/3 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.20 ERA | 1.415 WHIP | 117 K | 47 BB

Bobrob’s 2023 Preseason Prediction #1 – Ednel Javier Baez Welcome to the 15th annual Preseason Predictions! I think. I lost count. It may be 16th. Anyone here good at math? There’s no pandemic or scare of a lockout this season, but there are several rule changes that’ll be in effect this year. Bigger bases, pitch clocks, limit of pickoff attempts, and shift bans will undoubtably result in more offense. Stolen bases and batting averages should increase across the board. Comerica Park will also have its own changes this season with moving in the fences. Tiger hitters should see an increase in home runs; however, triples may decrease. How will this effect individual players? Let’s find out. El Mago might benefit the most on the Tigers from these rule changes. After averaging 31 home runs from 2019-2022 (minus 2020), Javy only hit 17 home runs in his first year at Comerica. Moving the fences could help him in hitting 20+ home runs again. Javier should also benefit from the shift ban. About half of his batted balls are hit on the ground and his batting average on ground balls took a big dive in 2022: 2019 - .286 AVG on GB 2021 - .300 AVG on GB 2022 - .249 AVG on GB Overall, Javy had a batting average of .301 when there was no shift last year in 193 AB. Javier is entering his age 30 season and many players are still in their prime at that age. Some however, have peaked early and start their decline early, which may have happened with Baez when he hit .238/.278/.393 last year. This resulted in a below average 90 wRC+ (he did only strikeout 25 percent of the time, his lowest percentage since 2016). Although, last year might just have been a fluke and Javy can get back to being an above average hitter once again in 2023. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 580 AB | .241/.287/.415 | 22 HR | 73 RBI | 13 SB | 30 BB | 168 K ZiPS DC – 570 AB | .246/.289/.422 | 22 HR | 76 RBI | 11 SB | 28 BB | 169 K THE BAT X – 553 AB | .249/.295/.413 | 19 HR | 13 SB | 30 BB | 156 K ATC – 555 AB | .244/.288/.414 | 21 HR | 12 SB | 28 BB | 163 K FGDC – 567 AB | .243/.288/.419 | 22 HR | 12 SB | 29 BB | 166 K RotoChamp – 553 AB | .246/.291/.420 | 21 HR | 11 SB | 28 BB | 161 K CBS Sports – 603 AB | .252/.298/.444 | 27 HR | 14 SB | 33 BB | 176 K ESPN – 561 AB | .246/.290/.435 | 24 HR | 13 SB | 27 BB | 166 K My Prediction: 2022 Prediction – 524 AB | .265/.305/.471 | 24 HR | 81 RBI | 15 SB | 25 BB | 179 K 2022 Actual – 555 AB | .238/.278/.393 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 9 SB | 26 BB | 147 K 2023 Prediction – 544 AB | .265/.304/.449 | 24 HR | 73 RBI | 10 SB | 26 BB | 162 K

Interesting. I turned off the volume when Morris was in the booth.

I remember having a conversation on the old MLB Detroit Tigers MB with someone that didn't like seeing Edwin Jackson being replaced with Max Scherzer. I said that I was pretty confident that Scherzer will end up having a better career than Jackson, but I don't think I was able to convince him.

His WAR was almost 4.0, which also included good defense. Now WAR is a flawed stat...unless it supports your argument. What is not being said enough is that Candelario was a negative on defense in 2022, and it usually doesn't get better as players age.

Yeah, a lot of it will be determined on Harris' philosophy. He may stay if only he feels he cannot fill his roster spot with someone else. But there's going to be so many players available soon, that it might not make a difference. If a player doesn't fit in what Harris is trying to build, he'll be gone. Alexander's strikeout numbers were way down in 2022 and he isn't young enough for the "potential" label. That might be enough to see him go.

His brother has a great Twitter account.

The only way I see Verlander coming back to Detroit is to sign a 1-day contract just so he can say he retired as a Tiger.

I've actually thought about doing one, but I don't want to do it alone. I wouldn't even know how to start.

Well, not extreme. This team has been a failure for years now, why keep the failure around? Everyone is calculating the $$/value to see if it's economical for Candelario to come back. But what if the problem is mentality? What if the problem cannot be seen in the stats? This isn't a simulation, this is real people. Get players that fit the team dynamic that Harris wants. Does that include Candelario? Maybe, maybe not. But you can't see that in the stats. The Tigers haven't had a winning season with Candelario on the team. Maybe he's part of the problem.

I'm in Camp Blow It All Up and Start Over.

If it's chronic, can we ever expect it not to be an issue?

I think the Tigers bullpen just just alright. They ranked 19th in WPA and 11th in RE24. They certainly weren't as good as Cleveland, Houston, or New York Yankees. But did Hinch do better than anyone else would have? Eh, maybe? Hard to say. I think if you have the talented players, they'll perform regardless of who is pulling the strings. I personally felt that he kept Soto in the closer's role for too long and he used too many relievers as starters (of course with the injuries he had little choice). I want to point out that Philadelphia is ranked 23nd in WPA and 19th in RE24 and they are one of the top 4 teams remaining. Even the traditional stats the Phillies are not ranked very high.

I think Hinch will eventually be fired. Probably not next year, but after he fails to get the Tigers to the post-season, he'll get fired.

Oh sure, Mike was really hurting financially during those times. I have no idea how he survived.

Mike also raised the payroll budget during the time that the Tigers were competitive. All Chris has done is lowered it. Maybe he'll start to raise it again. We'll see.

Throw Hinch in there too. His only winning seasons is tainted by the cheating.

3 teams won 100+ games in the NL this year and it's the Phillies and Padres in the NLCS, both that failed to win 90. Baseball is a crazy sport.

I just wanted to make the pun. But there are several examples of players that Avila acquired that are not good enough to be an a roster and yet were given 50 chances for no good reason.

Can anyone name the starting 2019 Tigers infield without looking it up? It was only 3 years ago. That whole team was forgettable, probably because everyone stopped watching them. But I guess that's what happens when you lose 114 games. As for the player that defines Avila's time with the Tigers? I don't know. I'm Stumpf. Daniel Stumpf.

I believe it was Scott Boras making up rumors about teams being interested to get his clients more money. The Tigers were starting to spend money, so they were a popular team for these rumors.

A lot of those "non-save situations" were when he was brought in a tie-game. He gave up 11 runs in 15 games when the game was tied and a .378 batting average against. Sure, I don't much much stock in bullpen roles either, but Hinch continued to use him in high leverage games when he shouldn't have.

Does Ivan Rodriguez count?

We can't predict what Harris will do based on Avila's philosophies.

The 11 losses is a telling stat, considering he finishes most of the games he enters. He had the most losses of any reliever in 2022. A more advanced stat is win probability added (WPA). Soto was a -0.74, 24th worst by any reliever. (What's interesting is that he wasn't the worst of any closer, Tanner Scott, Taylor Rogers and Craig Kimbrel had worst WPA). Soto should have been removed from the closer's position before the season ended, and that's 100 percent on A.J. Hinch.