gehringer_2

The other thing which sort of sits in the background because you can't really measure it is just that it's very hard in American politics to win an office you've run for and lost. There is an underlying 'loser's' bias against you. Now granted the fact that Trump won before losing takes away some of that, but I think there is still going to be the basic "he's old news" sentiment percolating below the conscious level that works against him with the low intensity/late breaking voter. Nixon did win after losing - but just barely and it was two cycles later, plus '68 was a black swan election because of Wallace and Dems self destructing over VN.

Never saw this film - but Google Lens to the rescue.

He's a good study in how the objective rationality in which the human species takes so much pride is so often actually just the outcome an underlying 'decision' of the emotional/lizard brain. Even as a respected constitutional laywer, French could justify everything inside the GOP as long he he was experiencing the glow of group membership in his sect. But when he found himself outcast by the sect over Trump and the emotional fix was withdrawn, then suddenly everything became clear to him. I don't mean to pick on French because he's just one example of the what is the more common human condition. At least he did figure it out while he was still breathing and has apparently joined the good guys.

Department of useless information: The Lions have not been coached by anyone whose first or last name started with a vowel since WWII.

LOL - I hate them also, but it's not as easy as it sounds. Ann Arbor passed an ordinance about gas powered leaf blowers but has already had to make a bunch of backtracks. I have an EGO electric blower which is supposedly one of the better electric brands. I use it on the driveway and the walks but there is no way it could do my lawn (10 trees). The thing that is stupid is the commercial backpack style blowers are big enough you could put a decent muffler system on them, the manufacturers just don't. Related: Neighbor across the street has a hard lawn to mow. It's on a hill with several trees and a terrace to work around. He's a pretty green kind of guy and he bought an electric mower a few years ago. I'd watch him struggle get the lawn mowed, usually over two days. So over the last two summers he has now mulched over more than half the grass on his lot. I've never seen so much mulch.

the margin of play between the two teams was a less than showed on the scoreboard. Lions were better because they did what they had to at few critical points while GB didn't, but I'm not getting too far over my skis that this game says the Lions can't sill lose again.

Yup. He might be safe for the interim until whatever new rules/conferences/reimbursement systems come into place and they can shop for the guy to fit the new job description.

might be a shade dark for the classic 'Honolulu Blue" but the blue is darker on the all blues.....

So French says he talked Ike's granddaughter, who is curator of the Eisenhower archives. The story runs to the effect that leading into the '52 election, Ike was deeply concerned about the fact that isolationism was already growing again in the US with the shadow of WWII barely in the rear view mirror. Both parties were offering him the nomination. So he went to talk to Taft, who was the odds on favorite to be the GOP nominee if Ike passed on the offer, and he asked Taft what he thought About NATO. Taft said he opposed it. That answer persuaded Ike he had to run as a Republican because as a GOP president, he could force the GOP into an outward facing foreign policy consensus with the Dems, control McCarthy (whom he hated) from the inside, and leave the isolationists without leverage in either party. It's not the main point of French's essay but I found it the most interesting part, as we already know the rest of French's complaints about his ex-party all too well. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/opinion/trump-mcconnell-courage-leadership.html

IMO, this is something they can't put off and they can't let Boras jerk them around on. You try to make a deal now, this off-season, don't even think about waiting for next year. If Boras won't talk now or talks to kill time but won't deal, you move him while he is controlled for two seasons and you can still get good value back for him.. The worst thing you do is let magic thinking distort your understanding that as long as Boras is his agent, if he won't deal now the odds are overwhelming he's going to FA. It would be a terrible loss, but the CBA has already baked the cake, all you can do in minimize the long term damage.

OK - sign a DE, get Branch and Jaymo back and take it on the road again.

one of the worst onside kick attempts you will see.

Don't worry, Quarter break coming.

Romad - a little off topic but did you see French's NYT column today? Mostly about GOP failures yada-yada, but an interesting (at least to me!) tidbit about why Eisenhower ran as a Republican. One I'd not seen before.

It's always fun to look back and speculate. If Ford wins that election does he have any better handle on the economy? Does he make a different appointment to the Fed than William Miller, one who starts the battle against inflation sooner? If he does he gets re-elected in 1980, no Ronald Reagan, and who knows where we all would be? And where does the right wing go if the Ford wing of the GOP keeps them shut out for another cycle or two? The stakes of an election may not seem high at all at the time, but you never know!

I was reminiscing the other day about elections like 1976, when I was not going to be particularly unhappy in the morning whichever guy won. Good times.....

40-60 is generally the most conservative part of a person's lifetime - mostly for economic reasons. They have gotten settled and feel the most at risk of losing ground: to taxes, or being forced to share the value of their productivity 'unjustly' with anyone else, or having the value of their property at risk by changes in housing patterns, etc. It's the age of maximum social/political rigidity and that is where the X'er are. Given Trump's proposals to break a lot of economic china, this could actually work against him with Gen X

In the end I'll be surprised if there is any sampling method that is going to be that much better, The reason being that in a US election survey, fundamental assumptions of statistics are already violated before you even start and it's just getting worse as time goes by.

I like Paul Krugman's metaphor about this - he says people should visualize the Federal Government as an insurance company with an army.

I can understand Cohn's problem. I've read a number of his columns this cycle and no doubt the nearer we get to Tuesday, the more he is despairing of polling having any validity in this cycle, but that's a hard thing to come to terms with when your value as an analyst depends on having something worth analyzing.

Edvinsson and Seider already look like they've been playing together for a whole season.

If it's real, it will be because your average mid-western farmer probably knows a lot more macroeconomics than your average MSM political reporter.

LOL - so if these are both good polls we aggregate them and get Trump +2. Which as you point out, is still a disastrous number for Trump.

Not to count chickens - but It would be a hoot if the error in polling turned out to be that the rural farm vote turns against Trump - probably the one thing no one expected or would believe even if they were seeing it.

I think the irony is that in most sports playing not to lose is a strategy that works best for teams good enough they probably don't need to do it. In hockey if you are good enough to play solid lock down defense to protect a lead your D game is probably good enough you could just play your normal game and it won't matter. If you are a crappy team and lay back, often as not you just find yourself overwhelmed by the pressure.