gehringer_2

Raise corp tax rate a couple of percentage points and institute a hard 16-20% *no* exemption minimum rate. Increase marginal rates on income above 500K 3-5%, and harden the AMT. Close about 1/2 the rate gap between dividends and interest vs wages. Tax carried interest. (OTOH I'm not so sure taxing imputed gains is such a good idea - sounds like a book keeping nightmare that will end up rife for abuse.....) Hold spending to less than inflation - freeze most things for a year and that still gives you a chunk of change to direct at specific new priorities. All doable if the public for once has the brains not to elect a divided gov. But crazy Americans will complain about government inaction and then split their tickets so "each side keeps the other in check" 🤷‍♀️

Of course he is

My guess would be they won't make a splash either. Holmes will try to get deeper at the position and use a lot of rotation to keep in fresh bodies, which is the second best thing to having better bodies.

I think the take is true but if so not sure why Campbell was clowning around at the presser. Maybe for once a joke that isn't landing.

The huge covid spending spike is already mostly over. As percentages of GDP both spending and receipts are really not that far off historical norms, they are just both on the wrong side at the same time. If you hold spending increases to 1/2 of inflation and raise taxes 2% of GDP you are probably there. Its not the economics, it's the politics.

IOW - move him to 3rd. I am really curious whether they will at least have him work out there a little in ST. Seems like a no-brainer if his arm is fully healed.

hadn't seen that. Probably a good sign.

Your 'Back and forth' voter is likely as not to stay home. Especially men, women will go vote anyway and maybe not note the top of the ticket.

having read Bezo's letter, I lean more toward that he is naive than ill-intentioned. Naive in the sense that like many American's in the middle of what they see as political breakdown, they don't have solutions for how to get out of it and instead keep reaching for wrong answers that have already failed.

If the dems get control, you can book there will be a tax increase early in the session. Trump or divided gov - who knows if any agreement is achievable?

He'd have a way to go to match Andrew Jackson, who supposedly grazed animals on the WH lawn.

it's pretty invisible. Can't say it's made any impression on me in over 10yrs.

Situation at WaPo still in a weird place. Bezos has written his defense of his action - it all parses fine except that if he was serious about the approach he claims, where was he a year ago when it needed to be implemented in a way that would not create the very appearance of bias he claims to be trying to eliminate. I think the problem at work with Bezos and at CNN and many other news operations, is that they see that they are not trusted and they think that's because their coverage is skewed so they try to bring in more "balance" by increasing RW representation, but the RW in the US is so stewed in their false narrative reality that it can't work to have those people in the same room with the people trying to tell the truth. What a guy like Bezos has to learn, hopefully before he destroys the Post, is that the problem is not his paper not telling enough truth, it's a public that doesn't want truth, and he won't solve that problem by making his paper trim its sails or incorporate more false shading to pander to that audience or to appeal to people who are intellectually aligned in opposition to the mission of all good journalism. Sure any paper can tighten up and be more accurate, they all have a tendency to get out over their skis chasing twitter virii that turn out to be misinfo, and he can change that by rewarding accuracy over 'scoops' if he cares to, but that's not their biggest problem. Maybe the best thing American newspapers could do would be to take on the role that American educators seem to have abandoned, which would be to use their papers to teach a little American civics on the side every day. Bezos could endow a desk at WaPo to write pieces on political history, economics, tied it to current events but not necessarily to any real time reporting. I bet it's exactly the kind of thing a modern newspaper would probably love to do but cant afford.

He gone. Trump will never apologize for anything, ever.

actually the "Main Street" in question was Ypsilanti IIRC, but close enough.

actually I'd take a bet he isn't for an internet beer, but I don't think we are going to find out. 🏈🏈

because they weren't paying a lot of attention - didn't care about him when he was out of office, and because this cycle he is (for as much as we complain that it should be more) getting much more negative coverage than 4 yrs ago, which is because if you listen to him he *is* darker and more incoherent, plus as you note Harris has run a mistake free campaign that has left the GOP with nothing like "her emails" to work with. I mean, as much as it is true that this may be one of the most pre-baked elections in history, that's not to say the campaign is not going to matter at all. And Harris has run a better one than Trump. Also, do not underestimate that inflation has cooled and gas prices are down.

Islam is at least if not more homophobic and patriarchal than RW Christianity. I would easily believe that much of Arab opposition to Dems which is couched in terms of Gaza if really culturally based, because it's a lot more PC to be pro Gaza than anti-gay (etc). To be anti-Dem over Gaza doesn't even make any sense since Trump is way more firmiy in Bibi's pocket than Harris.

Defections may be a bridge too far, but I can definitely see non-voting. I think if you sow doubt, then "let the rest of them make the decision" is a more likely response than "you changed my mind." Non-voting is only half as effective but it still breaks the same way.

Ronz's immediate circle notwithstanding () my read is that these are the people who Trump could have had but are probably being turned off by a lot of Trumps current rhetoric and condition. Librul is still a dirty word to them, they don't hold any personal animus toward POC but still believe they get the short end of the stick from elites because of DEI. They are part of the GOP's natural economic grievance constituency, many are vets, they believe themselves to be stand-up guys, the guys that shake hands at the end of the hockey game, and I think these are the people that Trump is starting to lose with the overt racism, the enemies talk, and the general deterioration in his psyche. The won't vote for Harris, but they can't deny in the hearts that Trump is a creep. They will find themselves busy enough on election day that they will just let it pass.

But there is still another piece to it. You have to hit on your picks, and that's where it's not so easy to duplicate what Holmes has done. The lions have had lot of draft capital at times in the past because of losing seasons, but never used it as well as Holmes has.

The other one that people seem to have forgotten is that a large number - certainly many hundred thousand, Dems registered R or took a Repub ballot to vote against Trump in primaries this cycle. There is no corresponding symmetry going the other way, and in the swing states that is another skewing factor when you are looking at EV by party registration.

I'm not sure that's what he is saying. His 1st chart is % of ABEV compared to 2020. But the %'s do not reflect the actual vote numbers because Dems voted ABEV in massively higher numbers than Repubs. I don't think there is any sound logic that gets you from the fact that more Repubs are ABEV this cycle to the conclusion that GOP turnout will be higher overall. that's possible but nothing more than a guess. It's just a easy to speculate that every single Repub ABEV is a subtraction from their ED turnout. I don't think there is any significant predictive value in the past on this stuff for reasons I've stated above. Nobody knows.

I don't think EV analysis is worth spit because a) in many states EV is too new a system to have settled into any predictable pattern B) Covid makes 2020 a black swan event that is not projectable C) The GOP's mandates to it voters on whether to EV or not have been all over the map.