gehringer_2

that's an impressive trend for Harris over 90 days. Something special about MN - maybe that Walz is on the ticket? Or is there reason to expect that trend holds anywhere else?

Hmm - Not the way I read it. I thought the SGT showed up and while he recognized Williams, the arrest was still going forward and somebody off site higher on the food chain the SGT was talking to cancelled the proceding. Not that it makes a big difference in the case overall, but it does absolve the guys on the site somewhat. Does a CPL say you can't be responsible for someone else's gun as well as your own? I would guess that would be the defense claim. None of that is an excuse for Williams, just trying to figure out what the PD might have been thinking or what Worthy might decide.

Legally the situation does turn on a technical interpretation of the CPL and clearly the cops on the scene simply followed chain of command. Still stupid though - why didn't he get his own permit? His frickin' brother obviously could have shown him how.

That is the question. I think the one service the MSM is doing this cycle is that while they may still be sane-washing Trump in term of his personal presentation, they are calling out the overt racism of his campaign in a big way, and while that certainly does consolidate his support in a narrow segment of his base, I do still believe that even if there are millions of Americans who complain about DEI, or are sometimes not 'woke' enough to see the institutional forms of racism that still exist around them, they still personally reject the characterization of themselves as racist people, and so I do believe the coverage in this cycle is going to peel of good number of traditional 'mainstream' GOP voters away from Trump because of that. If I am wrong and this doesn't happen, then we will share in the disappoint in our fellow citizens.

As is usual, I can see the election being half a loaf. Trump will lose but it will close enough that he won't go away and the GOP will remain in his thrall. So hopefully the courts have the cajones to put him in jail, or he shuffles off this mortal coil before 2028.

There is the countervailing view that no government is good enough for bad people and any government works for good ones. But that requires making cultural judgments that are taboo, not to mention that cultures do change, often as a result of government policy/action.

Pop concert would probably be Joni Mitchell at Hill Auditorium late 70's. Small venue, a good part of the concert was acoustic, we we in the about the 5th row. Absolute worst was Gato Barbieri, at the Michigan Theatre. He brought sound equipment more suitable for Shea Stadium and just shattered everyone's eardrums with boring riffs that were so loud you couldn't make out the notes anyway!

We are seeing one of two things: a) the dems are flooding the market with bad data designed to counter the GOP bad data, or b)results are filtering in that says the national polling models have been wrong. Take your choice until Tues night when you can cash in or lose your money! 😱

Same story as Italian caring more about the Trains running on time than Mussolini being a creep. People lack imagination about how fast a society can fall when you start caring more about transitory concerns than about process. Argentina, Hungary and Venezuela are pretty good examples but American don't pay much attention to overseas news/history.

That fine but it's also regular reporting, which isn't I was talking about even if that is what the Post calls the desk. I was explicitly describing a desk to do less immediately newsworthy stuff in the public interest that most papers wouldn't budget to to.

This is all good with the exception that poll aggregation has lost much/all of its theoretical statistic power due to the manipulation of polling that is currently widespread. But the whole idea of MOE as a real boundary is a misunderstanding driven by the need for common media to short hand scientific/mathematically complexity. There is no actual boundary on the result, as explained in the KOS article, the MOE is simply the distance around the result that includes some total percentage of the likely outcomes. Change the chosen percentage, the MOE changes with it. It's only a meaningful measure to a particular total probability. Push the total included probability to 100.00..%, MOE goes to infinity. And of course as I have vehemently protested all thread, once you add adjustment factors to re-bias your sample, as all nationwide polls are now doing, the MOE's given are pure fantasy because none of the pollsters know the true error introduced by their adjustment formulae.

We might yet find out the results are not useful with adjustments......

Orwell missed by exactly 40 years with his title.

Raise corp tax rate a couple of percentage points and institute a hard 16-20% *no* exemption minimum rate. Increase marginal rates on income above 500K 3-5%, and harden the AMT. Close about 1/2 the rate gap between dividends and interest vs wages. Tax carried interest. (OTOH I'm not so sure taxing imputed gains is such a good idea - sounds like a book keeping nightmare that will end up rife for abuse.....) Hold spending to less than inflation - freeze most things for a year and that still gives you a chunk of change to direct at specific new priorities. All doable if the public for once has the brains not to elect a divided gov. But crazy Americans will complain about government inaction and then split their tickets so "each side keeps the other in check" 🤷‍♀️

Of course he is

My guess would be they won't make a splash either. Holmes will try to get deeper at the position and use a lot of rotation to keep in fresh bodies, which is the second best thing to having better bodies.

I think the take is true but if so not sure why Campbell was clowning around at the presser. Maybe for once a joke that isn't landing.

The huge covid spending spike is already mostly over. As percentages of GDP both spending and receipts are really not that far off historical norms, they are just both on the wrong side at the same time. If you hold spending increases to 1/2 of inflation and raise taxes 2% of GDP you are probably there. Its not the economics, it's the politics.

IOW - move him to 3rd. I am really curious whether they will at least have him work out there a little in ST. Seems like a no-brainer if his arm is fully healed.

hadn't seen that. Probably a good sign.

Your 'Back and forth' voter is likely as not to stay home. Especially men, women will go vote anyway and maybe not note the top of the ticket.

having read Bezo's letter, I lean more toward that he is naive than ill-intentioned. Naive in the sense that like many American's in the middle of what they see as political breakdown, they don't have solutions for how to get out of it and instead keep reaching for wrong answers that have already failed.

If the dems get control, you can book there will be a tax increase early in the session. Trump or divided gov - who knows if any agreement is achievable?

He'd have a way to go to match Andrew Jackson, who supposedly grazed animals on the WH lawn.

it's pretty invisible. Can't say it's made any impression on me in over 10yrs.