gehringer_2

the other worrisome thing is that if he does start failing more seriously, the terrible people he has gathered around him will be happy to maneuver him into some really bad policy moves if they can.

Alexander usually pitches like Cy Young against the Tigers and did again last night - Zach had 2 AB against him, and he had to come back after the delay against a new pitcher with a 2 strike count So the circumstances argued a rough night was in order for him. Yeah - I expected him to crash a lot worse than he has. After the blistering start he had a week May but then had a good June and has managed to hang around 750 OPS all through July and August, which is more than I thought he could sustain that long. His fielding grades look weird though - of course he's moved around so much they are all too SSS, but BR grades him high as a SS and poorly as a 3B so far, but I'd argue it's the reverse that is more likely the truth.

I actually suspect there is a good deal of daylight between Trump and the hard core GOP on this. I think Trump wants to be thought of as benevolent to his people, and SS is part of that since so many white MAGAs are recipients. I don't think Trump ever thinks in Austrian School terms about SS being Hayak's 'Road to Serfdom' like a Paul Ryan, he's just not that ideological. Of course, that doesn't mean he won't be willing to support changes in tax or spending policy that are terribly destructive to everything else as part of his solution to 'save' SS.

I don't see that working particularly well. Managers will just pull the starter and double switch their way through their relievers so they never come to bat. But more to the point, the immediacy of the need to get the batter in the box out NOW is just going swamp all other medium (will I cost my team the DH) or long term (will I blow out my arm!) concerns a pitcher is dealing with. I think you need to attack the need for strike outs - somehow make them less valuable or just harder to get so less worth chasing? So to the first side, as we've all discussed, deaden the ball->cut HRs -> make the ball in play less catastrophic for the pitcher. But maybe there is a possibility from the other direction. What if you cut down the K zone - particularly the width - say you call that the middle of the ball has to cross over the plate and not just any part? My guess is that devalues the big breaking ball and increases balls in play - again it would have to be coupled with a deader ball, but with more balls in play you'd still get a reasonable number of of HRs for the fans even with a deader ball. The question is would it be less worthwhile to chase Ks if they are harder to get? Not really sure but I think it would be an interesting experiment for a minor league. But the more depressing thought is that there is no way back. It's just training techniques and metrics are showing guys how to be more effective - and once you know how to do something, there is no way to unknow it again even if doing it isn't good for you. And consider the incentives also. Maybe if you put an end to guaranteed contracts it *might* make pitchers worried enough to dial it back, but if someone is going to pay Skubal $400M at 31, how imperative can he feel about pitching to into his late 30s?

or the mirror image of that - which would be to raise the contribution income limit and then index that to inflation. They've had to 'rescue' SS before - it's usually done Chinese menu style - a little of this, a little of that - raise the eligibility ages a year across the board, raise FICA 0.5%, raise the FICA limit income some.

There is no fund, there are only entries in a fictional account book. It's is a mechanical impossibility for the US government to 'save' money - the only thing it could ever do is buy it's own Fed Res bonds, and all that does practically is contract the money supply. If the SS 'trust fund' is empty, all that means is that the proceeds from current SS taxes are less than payments, and all that happens if the checks keep going out is that the Federal deficit goes up by that imbalance, and it would certainly be the end of world if the deficit funded SS payments instead of say - corporate tax cuts, or golden ballrooms or oil depletion allowances or F-35s. Just turrible! The way it really works is that in years when SS took in more than it paid out, the Federal government spend the money out of the general fund and wrote an 'iou' to the SSA. No money gets 'saved'. Those IOUs are the mythical trust fund.

Also - the improvement over the years in short term forecasting and the shift to postponing games before they start has made a difference since the 'old days' as a lot fewer games are started than would get called before 5 innings - which is better all around - IMO.

though at least Ortiz in still on the field.

I'd go with sewers for the 19th century, anti-antibiotics for the 20th.

if there are 5 complete and a tie, it can go back to the last complete inning. If it was tied at the end of the last complete inning, the game has to be continued - though not necessarily tonight. Future radar projecting a fair amount of rain.

Tigers have to be the worst team for getting guys thrown out trying for 2nd without the runner on third coming home.

this is true. We probably have more healthy active 80 yr olds than ever before but it's a dumb bell distribution where on the other side the majority are overweight with T2 diabetes, atherosclerosis and high blood pressure.

so another note apropos of China: News that CATL (the worlds largest Lithium battery maker) has had the renewal of its permit to operate the worlds largest Lithium mine held up by the Chinese government. In a move that is maybe a signal of how China is starting to face 'grown up' issues in terms of international macro economics, the government is trying to reduce the occurrence of what they are calling 'involution', which is when they build out so much capacity in an attempt the capture a market that they drive prices down to where they can't make any money either. I'll guess the government will eventually relent once enough production is lost to shore up Lithium prices a little but still an interesting bit of news. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-stocks-soar-after-worlds-largest-ev-battery-maker-shutters-mine-in-china-133521609.html

that is correct, but I don't have any idea one way or the other if the back played into the setback he had that prevented him from making a return before the end of '23, which had originally been hoped for.

Interestingly, it's been discussed here that the SS 'trust fund' is really just a political fiction constructed to remove the taint of 'socialism', which made the original efforts to pass a Federalized old age pensions controversial even in FDR's day. But as it turns out, it has continued to be a useful political fiction because as Romad points out - there are a hundred million voters out there who believe it's their money held in trust and any politician who doesn't want to 'give it back' is going to be in deep ****.

Yeah - Casey had the bad luck of being at the outer end of long recovery times. There is also a newer variation on TJ that reconstructs without the full transplant procedure that is less traumatic and generally has a somewhat shorter recovery time. Not sure but I think both SGL and Jobe both underwent the newer style procedure.

"fixing" SS is pretty easy - raise contribution limits - add another 6mo to the age for the max benefit, etc. Congress just has to be able feel the edge of the precipice before they are willing to act. You only have to bridge about 10-15 yrs until most of the Boomers are dead and the system will get a lot more solvent.

And yet, since nobody did offer Correa 300M, Al would have been pretty irresponsible to over offer the market. If anything , it was Carlos that made the mistake, not Al. I don’t blame the Tigers for Carlos not understanding his own market value.

I don't think two previous elbow surgeries is normally considered a marker for projected longevity. OTOH, nobody can predict anything. If they could the Tigers wouldn't be down half a dozen pitchers.

And his public loves him for it. I saw a children's book the other day - just an ordinary heavy cardboard cover, two sentence on a page, illustrated 1st grade kind of book about a kid being a pain at home. It was full of the 'F' word. Completely normalized as how children and their parents should talk to one another. We're doomed.

No!

Riley with 4 hits in his last 3 game. Progress.

but on this point he is almost certainly right. The only way a mid-market team avoids the 10yr trips to the wilderness on a boom/bust cycle is to keep the pipeline full. That's just the reality of the CBA.

This is what happens in a game where pitchers are so overtaxed that high percentages of them can't get through a season anymore. We've lost Jobe, Olson, Foley, Cobb has been a no show, haven't gotten anything from SGL, Manning never came back from the foot injuries - the only way you can win is if you can make it through the season with a lower than average pitching injury incidence, and this year it has pretty much gone south for the Tigers despite the appearance of pitching depth that existed before the season started.

Though, TBF, the 'whole world' will be fine if we manage to take ourselves out of it. It might even have better luck with the next big brained species it evolves. They could even be a species that never invents extra inning runners or hockey shoot outs. 🤔