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Everything posted by gehringer_2
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I would just replace the CF wall with a long curved one that met the LF and RF walls on a tangent and eliminated the 430 areas. That would also leave the 420 zone narrower. Actually I wouldn't do anything but that would be a solution I wouldn't mind a lot.
- 3,276 replies
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- 81+ wins
- tork and greene
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(and 2 more)
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09/16/2022 7:10 EDT Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
gehringer_2 replied to casimir's topic in Game Threads
I think that will be Al's basic epitaph. The right instincts but inability to commit to making the decision when it needs to be made. That impacted his ability to trade, to cut bait on players who were/are deadwood and because of that, blocking/missing better players that actually were in the system. All follow from the same lack of timeliness in the decision process. -
That's the sad thing, for an American board looking by the quarter, 1% on 22 Billion is 55 million. Chump change. That's probably FedEx's office furniture budget.
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who said I was blaming anyone, only that we get do get affected by what happens in other places and that the predictions about those things end up in the policy decisions that get made in DC. If they guess wrong about those, that is just one more route to get US policy wrong. WRT 2016, the Fed has been up the creek since the crash in 2009. The experience of the post crash years is a reason I doubt the Fed's first couple of interest rate moves off low levels - 1-2-3% etc made much difference. It took until they hit the level that moved mortgage rates. On the way down the cuts at those levels really didn't move anything in terms of prices, so I don't see why they were going to on the way back up. I would have made the first increase something like 2.5% instead of dinking around with 50 and 75 BP initially. We'd be 6 months further ahead.
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I've seen some people speculate were are moving into an era of trade disengagment. That's probably net recessionary, but it absolutely is going to hit shippers! China is such a wild card though. Are Xi's policies going to force the rest of West to disengage with China in partcular? Will increasing authoritarianism begin to rot the Chinese economy the way it has the Russian? Big swings in those questions that we can only guess the answers about but will affect us all. If we do end up repatriating any large amount of Chinese manufacturing, it will certainly be inflationary, even if it does end up good for American workers in the longer run.
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It matters, but I don't think the differernce from 1 to 2 % makes much difference to how much it matters. At 4% I can see it getting more traction. Its clear enough that where we are now has pulled down home sales, which by itself is a pretty big drag overall. The question is how much more blood the FED wants to see on the floor and how high rates have to be before a wide enough cross section of industries slow down for the Fed to relent. I also believe that we are due for a major round of wage adjustments in the US. Virtually everyone getting paid by the hour has been falling behind for 30 yrs and with the labor market now finally tight and little hope of immigration reform, all those folks finally have a little leverage to start catching up a little bit. That is inevitably going to increase a lot of prices. And TBH, if that's why I'm paying some higher prices, I'll live with it.
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09/12/2022 6:40 EDT Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers
gehringer_2 replied to casimir's topic in Game Threads
I don't know how big a problem this is for RHH because a RHH hitter can reach the LF stands easily enough at Copa. Tork has already shown he can reach the RF stands as did JD before him and as Cabrera always had. If they ban the shift my thought would be that the increased incentive for LHH to pull the ball will be great enough to swamp concerns about particular ball park dimensions. But the deep CF gives a power pitcher some confidence challenging a hitter and that's a part of the game I like. -
all true by the book Romad, but you know as well as I that in much of Europe, religion of all stripes today is more notational than lived. I'll will grant I should have included Hungary and Croatia, and maybe esp given the situation with Orban the Pope weighing in could be helpful to the angels.
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maybe he's got a sick kid in the car, maybe he's going to be late for a flight, maybe he's a jerk. You might have willingly given him your spot if you knew the story - or maybe not. The point is you have no idea one way or the other before you drop the hammer of judgment from the lofty vantage point of the next lane.
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which is probably fine. At least from the capital expenditure side, I doubt interest rates have a lot of impact on decision making until they get to or above 4%. The difference between 1% and 2% money over the time horizon of (i.e short) of American business isn't going to change many decisions. IMV most of the move from 0-3% was just picking up the slack in the tow rope.
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sounds like you are talking about the southern leg?From 23 I alway took the east bound leg, which was completely rebuilt over the period I was communting it. A lot of trips either all the way down Monroe, or acrosss Sylvania. Enough to make a long but easy commute into a longer and more painful one.
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It might help buttress political support in maybe Italy and Poland, but they are already pretty well committed. Gov could be changing in Italy so it might be most useful there. Pronouncements by the Catholic Pope don't carry much weight in the Orthodox world of course.
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09/12/2022 6:40 EDT Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers
gehringer_2 replied to casimir's topic in Game Threads
people don't give enough credit to how much weather can subtly shift from year to year. When Target opened in MN everyone was pulling their hair out at the end of the first season because there were no home runs, but it was just a really weird summer with a lot of cool dry evenings for the night games. People didn't notice because it was still nice weather to be at the ball park, just enough cooler than normal for enough weeks when a lot of home games were on the schedule. Park played fine every year since. Since my summer bike rides are mostly east-west, it did seem to me that the west wind was less prevalent this year than most esp earlier in the summer. If they filleted the corners of the CF wall that would take away the most egregious points and few enough balls actually end up there it would affect perception a lot more than game play, which IMV is all that is needed here. The 420 dead center is fine. COPA is one of several parks that reach 420 at their deepest point. The current hysteria because Riley didn't reach on one HR is being a bit overdone though. -
LOL. There is an interesting point hidden under the covers of the concentration issue. A set of unit operations - say like a waste water treatment plant - in general cannot perform to any certain total amout of bad stuff remaining in its outfall, only the concentration of stuff in the outfall. So the bigger the flow, the more total stuff still gets out. So if you send the treatment plant the same total amount of crap to remove, but with *less* dilution water, the total residuals in the outfall will be less because it will be lower flow at the same concentration. IOW, the value in low flow toilets is more than in the water they save the homeowner..... (also why it was a terrible mistake not to have separate sanitary and storm water sewers when so many cities were built, but what did they know ~150 yrs ago when those decisions were made?)
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Pretty much only the largest systems need enough to use rail - a little Chlorine goes a long way in water! But having handled it both ways, from a safety standpoint I would rather see Chlorine in a rail tankcar than an over the road truck any day and twice on Sunday! But there is another important factor that also drove system operators away from Chlorine which was if you have a little bit of low molecular wt organic material in your feed supply, Chlorination will help you generate halogenated organics - which is to say potential carcinogens. For instance Ann Arbor, which takes some water from the Huron river - which being a live ecosystem of course does carry some organic material, switched for that reason. Given the dilution volume of the Great Lakes, the Detroit system, which draws mostly from Lake Huron, has organic concentrations low enough that is apparently not an issue.
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L'état, c'est moi meets Idee Fixe
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exactly, and that's the clear press bias for sensationalism and doomsaying. For years, that same report would be have been given as: "prices in August increased 0.1 from those in July for a 1.2% annual rate." That was *always* the standard language used on those numbers - until the last two months that is.
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12 months ago I don't think anyone would have even given odds against Xi's reappointment, but it hasn't been a good year for him. Not that you'd still get many takers on those odds, but whatever they are, they have to be worse than they were.
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Somebody's gonna need a lot of clean fill.
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Putie's body language in the video looks like a 5th grader trying to explain why he doesn't have his assignments done.
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Voter Fraud is not the problem, ELECTION fraud is
gehringer_2 replied to RatkoVarda's topic in Politics
this is going to split one of two ways and I don't think we have any way to know until the votes get counted - either the dem over estimates in 2016 and 2020 were purely the result of GOP turnout energy from Trump himself being on the ballot, in which case the Dems are golden, or the dem overestimate repeats and it's going to be a dark two years. -
it would be better if they spent the weapons and didn't kill the civilians!
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the Fed wants a slowdown, that is how they get it.
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I get the rationale that the US doesn't want to supply things like ATACMS to Ulraine, but they are going to need to supply better anti-missile defense and quickly because at this point the Russians appear to be committed to doing as much domestic mayhem in Ulraine as they can.
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09/12/2022 6:40 EDT Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers
gehringer_2 replied to casimir's topic in Game Threads
Yup - PEDs have to be considered and with latin players of that era it's hard to be confident their ages are correct, but even that said, some guys do get older quicker. You see it start more at 33-34 but there is always a lot variation in the human population.