mtutiger

Had this debate with fife about a month ago, but to play devil's advocate, Trump is also not currently in the public sphere in the way that he would be should he be campaigning to run for President again. And his favorability/approval #'s (and the extent that they have risen somewhat) probably reflect that. But definitely, he can win. I don't know of many who believe he can't at this point. I don't know what will happen with Biden.... although I think the chances he runs again are significantly higher than the conventional wisdom suggests.

A couple of things: One: I remember having a conversation with my old man about Cruz back in 2018 (when he was up for reelection here).... he's always been a big fan and continues to be one, owing to his firebrand style and his archconservative politics. My response was simple: it's easy for you to say that you're a fan because you don't live here and you have two Senators (Peters and Stabenow) who, while they don't share your party preference, at least take the constituent services part of the job seriously. Because in terms of actual value delivered to the state, he's probably the most worthless Senator out there.... his only real strength seems to be going out and finding a camera. Very little else. Regardless of party, I would rather have a Workhorse Senator that takes their work on committees and legislation seriously versus one who just shows up on The Shows and Cable TV all the time. Two: Some of you maybe remember the debacle last February in Texas and how this clown abandoned ship and then, when proceeding to get caught abandoning ship, blamed his kids and wife. That's the guy in a nutshell... setting aside the debate over whether he could effectively do the job remotely (Melody from the old board made that argument frequently at the time), in terms of doing the absolute bare minimum and standing in solidarity with people here, he didn't have the sense to do the work from Texas. Just as his Senate colleague John Cornyn, who I disagree with most of the time as well, did. At the end of the day, maybe he represents the views of 50-55% of his constituents, but in terms of whether he actually cares? Fuck no, the guy only cares about himself and his political future and does everything with that in mind. This despite the fact that he's proven time and again to have some of the worst political instincts in Washington, and that he may be the only person in the United States who believes he even has a 10% chance of ever becoming President. The clip doesn't surprise me at all.... for all the tough talk, deep down he's an invertebrate.

2024 is a really long way away. Not even saying that things will be better in 2024 or that there aren't scenarios where the climate in 2024 wouldn't redound to Trump or DeSantis' benefit, but rather it's unlikely that we're dealing with the exact same issues then as we are dealing with in Jan 2022.

But are they?

Good Lord, I'm tired of the excuses....

They are currently involved in a multi-billion dollar libel lawsuit involving the lie that led to the events of 1/6. So yes, they are quite different than most other news outlets on this.

The whataboutism on the social media sites today is off the charts lol

It really ties into the conversation about earmarks earlier. Politics has always been a nasty business, but in the grand scheme of things, people generally sent people to Congress to bring money back into their districts. Nowadays, everything is about culture war issues. Trying to run and govern on solving problems and bring money home to the district doesn't raise people's dopamine enough apparently.

Seems like this will mute the saber-rattling on the Ukrainian border for a while

Just to expand, It's also important to put the Hispanic numbers into the broader context of urban/rural and in terms of education. One could reasonably expect, as David Shor has suggested, that to the extent there is a trend right among Hispanic voters, it may not be uniform depending on these characteristics. A lot of The Valley is much more rural and cut off from Texas, and non-college tends to be higher down there versus Hispanics in the Metro areas. It's also a lot smaller (I'd have to run the numbers, but population wise, it's akin to The UP's impact on Michigan's population). But there are a lot of Hispanics in the metro areas and while they did have a swing toward Trump in 2020, it was more like 5-10 points. Not 25-30. If the swing were universal everywhere, it'd be enough offset all the population growth elsewhere. But as it is, assuming nothing changes (it probably will), it'll slow it down but not totally reverse it.

Yeah, it's still gonna trend toward the Ds. The Hispanic shift in The Valley is real, but there aren't a lot of people there. And it's more muted in the Metros. It'll slow it down, but it won't stop it

So, hypothetically, a person who was born and raised in this state, who votes in every election against the party in power here, who may not have the means or desire to leave family behind on account of politics, deserves all of this? You know, the left wing of the D Party takes a lot of flak, but this sort of attitude is equally as bad politically. With respect to Texas, it now has 40 Electoral College votes. It's trended toward the Ds since 2012, finishing within single digits for the first time since Slick Willie's relection. I'm no political expert, but telling the 5+ million who didn't vote for Trump to go fuck themselves seems like a bold strategy... one that I hope actual D strategists are not pursuing.

Not sure if you are addressing my point, but if you are, the point is rather that there are still people in those "irredeemable" states like Texas and Florida and others who aren't Republicans. Florida and Texas, in that order, were 2 and 3 respectively in terms of raw vote delivered to Joe Biden (behind California). The EC, and the subsequent coverage of politics in this country that results from it, IMO, really obscures that for a lot of people. It'd be nice for people to remember that when they are busy talking how we deserve natural or manmade disasters, or how they'd be OK if Texas seceded. When I hear people talk like that that, I perceive it as they don't care about everyone who is here who maybe isn't in step with the governments here or how the states vote at the Presidential level. And they're talking about a lot of people for whom this is their home and maybe they don't have the desire or privilege to just up and leave because they don't like the politics of where they live. To be fair, both sides do this (Rs do this with California, New York and Illinois as well), but it doesn't make it any less of a turn off in these conversations.

I mean, we have our share of hard right wingers in this state.... but there are parts of Dallas or Houston that are as Democratic in how they vote as anywhere else in the country (not to mention the Austin/SA corridor). Just as there are places in Pennsylvania who are as Republican as a number of counties here. The Electoral College tends to obscure that.... people (on both sides, I might add) just write places off because of a few percentage points one way or another. Just setting aside everything else about the EC, it's just corrosive IMO

This is all correct, of course. But it doesn't really make the system any less corrosive. People focus on the Electoral College in terms of outcomes (ie. 2016), but I sort of hate how it just distills all national campaigns down to less than 10 states and how it creates this system where people judge states based on how they vote electorally. Not directed at anyone in particular, but all the people who trash Texas or Florida and say "they deserve it" whenever something bad happens in either state seem to act like how the states voted in a particular election is a statement on the actual population of those states. When some 46% of Texans and 48% of Floridians (ie. damn near half in each state) didn't vote for Trump in 2020. I know it's not going to change, but it's just corrosive as hell. And all the arguments in favor of it that argue about how it helps protect the interests of small states are just crap.... if anything, it makes it easier to ignore the 40+ states that aren't competitive.

My recollection (similar to his mentor Rush) is that he tends to claim that he isn't a journalist, but likes to be treated like one whenever he comes under any sort of scrutiny (such as now with these texts)

I'll take "Things I Never Said" for $1000, Alex... (or Mayim Bialik or whoever)

As alarming as some of the polling data coming out about R voters views on 1/6 (and how views have hardened as such), generally speaking, 2/3rds still do not like what happened on 1/6 last year. That's the vast majority of voters For him, there is very little to gain from having a big 1/6 press conference (when public attention on the events of last year are higher) when he can go do big mega rallies on any other day of the year and peddle the same falsehoods over and over when it's not high on everyone's mind.

Isn't Hannity's whole schtick (presumably to defend the falsehoods he peddles) for the past 10103453802 years been that he isn't a journalist?

As always, it's bad when it's Chris Cuomo.... but when it's Sean Hannity? Crickets.

What exactly does a "tear down" entail? Our system isn't perfect, but it's preferable to one where we, as citizens, have no say in who our leaders are. And when other countries "tear down" or "enter into emergencies", their citizens tend to lose that right. Portugal, Spain, Paraguay, Chile... history is littered with examples. And January 6th, for it's part, was proof that there are at least some in society who would trade that all in if they could get the leader they wanted. Concerning to say the least.

Im sure some of the over-40s men may want to comment?