mtutiger

"Surrender Pronto, or We'll Level Toronto!"

He's going to have some bite in areas where he has room to maneuver outside of Congress (namely tariffs and immigration), but the Margins in the House are incredibly narrow.... it's going to make governing really really hard, at least for the next two years.

I don't even know how much of a hot take it is at this point, but I think the chances they upgrade (via free agency or trade) at 1B are way higher than 3B at this point.

I've pretty consistently been skeptical of tariffs. On both this iteration of the board and the last Sorry if ideological consistency is inconvenient for your whataboutism.

Biden engaging in dumb policy quite obviously does not absolve Trump for engaging in even dumber policy.

Flashback to May 2023: Trump urges GOP to let catastrophic debt default happen if Dems don’t accept cuts

Will onshoring even happen though? The most likely end result is that the policy is implemented, it doesn't work, but we are subjected to economic pain anyway. That's what I'm getting at... the implication is that we need to accept these higher prices as a way to, quote un-quote, MAGA.... but when the policies are implemented and, inevitably, there are few examples of the goals being accomplished, all the while we are looking at an elevated inflation rate, what's the shelf life on giving this thing a chance? 1 year, 2 years, etc? The hardcore MAGAs will make excuses, but the example of 2022 and 2023 suggests that the people in the middle of the electorate are not nearly likely to be as patient IMO

Yuppers.... I couldn't imagine being a politician living through 2022-2023 and seeing what the impacts were and thinking, "oh yeah, let's embrace policies that will lead to even more inflation". Trump doesn't care, the man has few convictions but the tariffs are one of them.... but his party should care because they will outlive and outlast him and will have to deal with the consequences.

As much as some to love to talk about how many people are moving to the Sun Belt.... I assume that at least some of the folks doing the moving are trading in lower interest rates for higher ones (they aren't all paying cash lock stock and barrel lol)

There is a theory behind the tariffs, that the economic pain that the tariffs will inflict will magically lead to a bunch of onshoring of American manufacturing, increasing jobs to Americans. It's obviously a load of horse****, but to a degree some have either bought it or are hanging on it at the very least. I would be curious to know for how long we are all expected to hold our tongue and refrain from complaining about higher prices should he implement these tariffs.... is there a timeline? Or, paraphrasing Lord Farquaad from Shrek, are Americans paying higher prices in pursuit of flawed economic policy just a sacrifice that Donald Trump has to make?

Not necessarily - people take new jobs (with higher salaries), move for work, have growing families. All of these things, even with higher mortgage interest rates, absolutely can lead to people to move. Not saying that there aren't plenty of people who won't sit on their mortgages because of elevated interest rates, but over time that number of mortgages sitting in locked in at rock bottom rates will decline just due to attrition from these factors.

Amazing how the possibility of high inflation becomes an acceptable outcome and a pill we all have to swallow the moment Trump became President-elect As I recall, you were singing out of a much different song book (and slinging accusations at others) during 2022 and 2023 over this very issue. Interesting

Anything on this @Tigeraholic1?

Would be really terrible for Rural Americans everywhere... It's all fun and games until there are material consequences

I'm shocked to learn that the guy who campaigned on things that would, in practice, increase inflation has no plan to reduce grocery prices

So much of preseason predictions is based on recency bias and there are always players who come out of nowhere. It's hard to take them too seriously. I was serious when I threw it out there... how Skubal ended 2023 post injury was a leading indicator of things to come

The proposals for massive cuts are going to matter a lot in terms of the Congressional math as well.... the House is 220-215, with three vacancies coming because of appointments (Stefanik, Waltz) and resignations (Gaetz) in the short term. People assume Trump can just do whatever he wants, but with those margins, it's really, really tight...

$119 billion from VA Health Care.... But, something something Kamala Harris something something

To be fair to people living through the 1930s, they did pull the lever for Franklin Roosevelt multiple times - his first two elections (at least) being in large part because of economics. The public voted for, and rewarded, Roosevelt for the New Deal, which is unthinkable in today's day and age... (and hopefully remains so given that Roosevelt was preceded by the Great Depression) The issue nowadays is that materialism in politics increasingly matters less and less. At least in our public discussions or how candidates position themselves on the issues - all culture war all the time. We've seen that in this very own thread - we've seen lots of discussions about things like restrooms and what bathrooms trans people are using with a lot of avoidance of the impact that many of the positions this new administration could have in terms of economics, and how it could impact all of us. Not denying that there isn't struggle out there - clearly there is.... but in terms of having our needs satiated, by any objective measure, we are largely much better off than we were back then. And we cast ballots like we are too.

FIrst two digits for zip codes (three digits for areas outside the Lower 48); first two digits correlate with the state you live in.

Non-political, but I just saw this map recently... thought it was illogical for years as to how the numbering was dispersed (not purely east west but, apparently, snaked around the US through states grouped as units.

There's maybe a dint of care about policies when a Democrat is in office.... the focus on the economy and inflation of 2022-2023 is a good example. But especially given the impact that inflation had on Biden's term (most likely the largest reason Trump ended up winning) and how Trump's policies that he's proposing would hint at short term inflationary pain for consumers (even his allies, such as Elon Musk, have suggested this), you'd expect a little more discussion on this and less about bathrooms. That's not an accident though... the culture wars over bathrooms are the modern day equivalent of what Daniel Patrick Moynihan's "boob bait for bubbas" quip.

To paraphrase Lord Farquaad: "Some of you may [have to pay significantly more on all ag, material and consumer imported products], but that's a sacrifice I am willing to make"

Oh wow, you mean to tell me that Nancy Mace is a grifter without any core principles? Asking for a friend

Yep, based on the news report I saw today, it was based on DOJ guidelines, not actual evidence or ability to prosecute. Hawley knows that, but he's gotta chum the waters for the base