mtutiger

It's partially a repeat of this, but also the junk pollsters targeting PA much more than MI/WI is a function of how Trump's campaign sees the landscape IMO. If you look at the money, their campaign is ceding a lot of ground in MI/WI/AZ/NV and seems to be banking mostly on winning PA/GA and holding NC. It's another inside straight strategy... But it's really risky and limits the paths to 270

Not downplaying the debate performance as a possible impact, but there was also a much larger flood of crap quality polling into the PA average over the past month that has impacted analysis of the state. It's probably also not coincidental that PA has added significance over MI/WI for EC reasons as well. And that Trump seems to be pushing resources to the state at the expense of most of the other battleground states.

Higher margins of error with the counties, but if Harris is winning both Erie and Northampton, she's winning PA

The John James seat is gonna get a cash infusion

The thing that is throwing me is that he never really enunciates the "I" in immigrant. Makes it harder to see the charitable interpretation

Damn, Rich needs to lay off the sauce 🤣

Definitely open to that interpretation

I wouldn't vote for DeWine, but in terms of the basic blocking and tackling of government in a crisis, he's increasingly becoming less common in that party

Cornel West fails to make PA ballot

DeWine is a dying breed in the GOP...

It has very idiosyncratic politics in general. Not surprising - a state that is separated from the contiguous US is bound to approach politics differently. I definitely think it's fair to think that Alaska could be approaching lean R status though... Trumpism isn't a great fit for the demographics of the state.

I went ahead and listened... Thought the most eye opening thing was that her group has been polling in Alaska.

Multiple days in a row now

Maybe partly him, but I just get the sense in general that Trump is having issues in rural areas... Like, they aren't going to revert to 2012 levels of Dem support or anything like that, but that he could lose a few percentage points in some of these states anyway. And that would matter a lot, particularly in the northern swing states. Some of Kamala's campaign choices in PA, going to Johnstown and Wilkes-Barre, places that have swung hard right since Trump showed up on the scene, tells me they are seeing something as well in their own data

This would seem to backup the Seltzer Iowa poll (WI-3, driftless area seat bordering IA)

OK

Thanks again, JD

Sounds like Bay City, tbh. Particularly the gilded Victorians

Awesome, thanks JD

He endorsed Vivek/Nikki as a ticket in this election, so I would say he's still pretty hard to pin down politically. As most mental cases are.

Also assumes that this doesn't trigger more stupidity going forward from Trump's Campaign. Which, unfortunately, seems very likely. This is the counterintuitive take that I've seen today that bears some consideration: What happened today just reinforces and associates Trump's brand with chaos.... and perhaps reminds the persuadable voters that remain of various moments of chaos in term one. It's not a popular take, we are all conditioned to believe that "everything that happens helps Trump." But that's often not true... the muted response to his first assassination attempt should be a good example.

Just an addendum, but given everything that we have seen from his candidacy just this week in Ohio, I'd be lying if I said it was easy to find sympathy for him. Doesn't change the fact that it was wrong, there's never a reason for political violence, obviously. But it doesn't change that he's not a sympathetic figure and that he's clearly demonstrated that he's more than willing to inflict pain and trauma on others if he feels it advances his interests.