mtutiger

Just thinking aloud (PA is probably the swing state I know the most about outside of MI due to family reasons)... there's evidence (in district polling) that she's could improve in the Lehigh Valley (ie. Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton area) and in South Central PA (ie. Harrisburg Area). Suburban Philly and Pitt likely trend left as well. If all true, Scranton/Wilkes Barre is one of the best places to make up ground if you are losing raw votes elsewhere. If you aren't making up ground there, there aren't a lot of areas left; you have to make it up either in "The T" (ie. Alabama in the Middle), NW Corner (ie. Erie area) or via Urban PA (ie. Inner Core Philly/Pittsburgh, either collapse in turnout or an epochal shift in vote behavior). Not saying any of those things cannot happen or that the district level polling is 100% correct, but it's something to think about, and partly why PA tends to get lumped in with MI as being one of Harris' more favorable states at the moment.

Trump/Harris margin practically even vs. 2020 in this NEPA (red trending) district... Probably wins the state if this is what it ends up looking like

Yiiiikes

The fact that this wasn't 9-0 is ridiculous

I think it will be close too... my only real hot take is that she has more upside in Georgia than the polls are showing.

Isn't there an (e) option that involves pollsters overcorrecting? I honestly don't know what is going on, but I do think that people are too dismissive of the idea that pollsters are trying things to increase accuracy from previous elections and that we ultimately won't know whether it works or not until after this thing happens.

CES's estimates are based off their demographic crosstabs - they had Trump gaining more with black voters and Harris gaining more with white voters than is likely to happen. I particularly doubt the Georgia numbers.... I'd be surprised if the spread is that high.

I would take a narrow win at this point just for this alone - maybe with him off this mortal coil or too old / incapacitated, maybe it gives both parties an opportunity to regroup and move our politics beyond his BS. If he wins, there'll be none of that.

CES shows her getting 276, not 270

Unless my math is wrong, that would add up to a Harris EC win.

All true, but a world where the economy doesn't matter isn't ideal for them, and they know it.

Telling

Donald Trump is apparently now making specious allegations about fraud in PA.... perhaps tells you where he thinks the race is there?

I don't watch cable news anymore, but how on earth did a "For You" level Twitter guy like Girdusky end up on their airways???

It's fitting that two days after this guy's terrible, unfunny and racist joke about Puerto Rico, Trump is scheduled to do a rally in a city (Allentown) where 1 in 4 residents are Puerto Rican. Just cosmic

I kinda referenced this the other day, but the fact that his campaign is messaging more of an Atlanta/Suburbs approach to campaigning in Georgia this time around is sort of telling... it's almost like an acknowledgment that they (correctly) think it's going to be difficult to wring more votes out of the rest of the state because the rural areas are already maxed out. Not criticizing the approach, it's the right one to take (you go where you can theoretically get more votes), but public polling aside (Georgia is seen as one of his better states) it projects a bit of weakness in their position as well.

Campbell is from Glen Rose, TX, which is a very wildly conservative town... but ultimately who knows. People can go against type from time to time.

So... They cut calling Kamala a ****, but left the joke about Puerto Rico in there?

I mean, this is the first election we have had since Dobbs, for starters... But January 6th, Trump fatigue etc. People don't always move politically all at once, sometimes it takes time.

Have said it before, but it cannot go ignored the fact that Whitmer (while winning the state by 11 points in 2022) did close to 20 points worse with this demo than Biden did in 2020.

There will be some of those too. Again, I don't think it's a ton of people, but enough in a close race for sure.

James Carville's demographic to watch... College white men