HugoD

Funny you say that; I was thinking about this and came to the conclusion that much of us Lion's fans, especially the long timers amongst us, suffer from a sort of PTSD. I admit to those thoughts, but in general I try to look at the good. I mean, you have to acknowledge the truth about what's not good, but you also need perspective. Plus, optimism supposedly leads to better health! Having said that, realism is always OK, the the constant irrational negative statements from "some" folks is tiresome.

It's gotten to the point amongst the national talking heads that if they were to start talking up Goff, I'd get nervous and uncomfortable. Heading home yesterday, I was listening to Steven A. go on and on about how the Ravens defense was terrible. I'm just smiling and thinking "you just can't give credit to Lions offense and Goff can you?". Hell, Mayfield gets more credit! Whatever, would rather have underrated guys than overrated guys.

Yeah, this is where I'm at. To be fair, I kind of thought the lack of splash at the deadline wouldn't impact their chances at making postseason. Whether or not it lessened their potential postseason success was harder to guess, as it's a bit of a crapshoot anyways. I never ruled out the Tigers having an extended streak of bad play, but didn't think it would coincide with either Cleveland or KC playing out of their minds. I mean the odds of both occurring were infinitesimal, literally. Having said that, some of the takes on here are over the top as well. For example, the "they don't care / are not trying" thing is tired. Often times it can be due to trying too hard, which doesn't work so well in baseball. I think anyone who's actually been "in the arena" with any type of team( whether in sports or business) knows it's not that simple. With regard to the decision makers and leaders, sometimes they're just wrong. Good ones admit it, reflect and adjust. If they don't, they will indeed lose their position (which will at least satisfy the bloodlust of the mob 😁). Going forward, a few more proven bats are a must, as well as more SP depth. It's foolhardy to think that you don't need 8 quality SP in this day and age.

When everything came down at the deadline, I'll admit that I was one who thought may be this would be OK. I was especially hopeful that Morton would continue on the path he'd been leading up to the deadline. It's pretty apparent to me that I totally misjudged the situation. Granted, would be hard to predict that total team performance would take such a complete 180. As others have said, I think the biggest failure was with SP; I too have been thinking that we would have been way better off with Keider and Melton - certainly couldn't have been worse. Obviously, they've been beset by other woes beyond the rotation, but it started there. And, as @gehringer_2 and @Sports_Freak pointed out, the system is bereft of promising pitching talent at the high minor level. That's a recipe for disaster.

As have I, and yes, it was a good time to be a bit away from it. Easier to be philosophical, at least for me, when you're not hanging on every at bat.

Yeah, I hear you, but I've come to conclusion that the "being hot going into playoffs" thought that's prevalent among folks who talk about it has become kind of a cliche. I "feel" (not based on any research :)), that this isn't always the case. It's no different than how, during the season, teams are on a prolonged skid and then it suddenly turns around. We've seen that a lot this year. Now, on the other hand, it is hard to feel much positivity when the recent results have been so bleak. AI summary: you never know.

This is really good information; thanks for compiling it. With so many numbers available these days, including in the "real" world, it's always a fun challenge to try to distinguish predictive signals from noise.

Yep, that's always been my thought as well. It's not complicated; if it were, it wouldn't have occurred to me. Like you said, those numbers are now much more available, and I think they should permanently replace references to BABIP.

Genuinely curious - are you inferring that BABIP has limited use as a metric? I do think it's really limited and overused - but I can't tell if you're for it or against it.

Yeah, it's both. My initial thoughts yesterday were that play calls always look better with strong OL play. This is for sure true, but I've come around to the idea that the play caller needs to adjust as well to the situation as it is. I'm no expert, but it's not as thought the OL was/is a complete disaster that can't be accommodated.

Yeah, you defined the decision point and the other variables very well. In hindsight it may seem AJ was greedy sending him out for the 6th at all, but in the moment, I agreed. It’s just, when do you pull him, and that comes with a lot of other variables.

Not sure I agree. TBF, Jack has gone 1-2-3 in 4 of 5 innings, including previous inning, and pitch count was reasonable. I wasn’t watching though, so I don’t know how his stuff is was playing.

Yep, toady was actually biggest output of the weekend. Gonna lose some games, but hate to waste that. I usually think “ 8 is enough”. 🥁

Oh my. Had to step out after top of third. What a nice surprise!

Oh for heaven’s sake

Yeah, this looks like it may be an uphill battle tonight

I’ve come around on Perez. He came into the year with more good weight and he’s shown improvement all the way around. Can never be certain of future trajectory, but the trend has been good

Like they say, it’s often as much about when as it is who wrt to your opponent. This series was a good when

Ok

I'd need to see another bad outing or so to agree with your take on Morton. If you look at his las 10 starts or so, his last start was the aberration. You can't look at his season long numbers.

I've come to the same conclusion this year. As you said, he is a good player, just not the superstar some are hoping to see. Perhaps he will adjust to get more consistency, but I would forecast him to be a .275 hitter, 25 HR and ~.800 OPS, plus an above avg. left fielder. Nothing wrong with that, but I think he is close to what he will ever be.

This is a good explanations of the dynamics; much better and more thorough than what I offered up earlier. 🙂

Not thinking about age really. My thoughts are more related to the fact that McGonigle has only recently been promoted to AA ball. I'm guessing that the organization has a reason for the advancement trajectory of player in the system. For example, I would think that there are certain milestones that they want to see at each level, which may or may not be reflected in the traditional metrics we as outsiders look at.

I don't have a say in it, but I vote no. To not rush those guys - which this would be - is also a move. I know it's been said a lot already, but Tork is an example of that type of move, and he was in AAA already.

Now that would be something, not exactly sure what, but something.