microline133

I'm curious about this and I don't intend it as some big gotcha moment or to ridicule....genuinely curious. What was it about him that you really liked? How did you come to really like him. As I recall, the scouting consensus, mine included, was he was a non-prospect (which time has born out). The only place he was "hyped" (and I put that in quotes intentionally) was from the Tigers themselves....they pumped his tires a bit and added him to the 40-man roster, which was a recognition for a good season and nothing to do with future potential, the same thing they did for Jordan Lennerton once upon a time. Was it the club's PR on him that hooked you, did you have a good experience with him at the ballpark, was it the stats, what drew you to him as a prospect. It's interesting to me because he and Lennerton were two of the first public prospect PR campaigns I can remember from the Tigers....they've clearly been successful hyping some prospects more recently with their social media reach, podcasts, etc., and some of them deservedly so, but I'm genuinely curious if that's what hooked you on him back then. As a prospect writer, fighting the org narrative has always been one of the biggest challenges (it used to just be a fight to sift through the BS when you talked to org sources) and I occasionally like to get this data to see how far back I was actually fighting against the org pushing shit publicly versus just fighting normal fan enthusiasm.

That never happens, Lee. I don't know what you are talking about!

There's no wondering, frankly, Menzin had as much responsibility for the current state of the Tigers as Avila. Avila has been the face of the fan's scorn, but Menzin is nearly equally responsible.

I did not have any advanced data at the time I made that call on Stewart. My projection was based on watching five games in six days and seeing 20+ plate appearances in that span.

I'm not sure why I'm bothering with this, it's the equivalent of pissing into the wind and a perfect example of why I hate the current state of prospect analysis on the internet. Fans aren't educated on the nuances of player dev, tool hierarchy, etc., they are just bludgeoned with every highlight and how good this guy might be. If you want to argue that the new list is incrementally better than the old one in some way, that's fine. I'd contend that incremental improvement doesn't actually constitute much in terms of actual system quality or depth. Incremental gains on lists like this aren't where you make your hay....you need big gains that develop guys from these lists toward the higher end talent lists I mentioned earlier. With hindsight as your guide, you can poke holes in all those guys I listed. I can poke similar holes in each of the guys you list.... Dingler....framing/receiving/game calling lag and may not catch up, lots of swing and miss, hints of durability issues. Crouch....solid glove, likely won't get to power at higher levels because of hit tool deficiency. Saquera/Santana/Wenceel....meet Javier Betancourt, Domingo Leyba, Francisco Martinez, and so on. Jung....looks like he will hit but the glove is suspect, doesn't sound terribly different from Stewart immediately after the draft. I can keep going here. Look, I certainly believe some of these guys are good talents with potential and I would likely shove some of them in my own rankings, but they are all flawed in significant ways that prevent them from being guys you start counting on or penciling into future rosters. A simple (not so simple) thing like a hit tool deficiency, need to recognize spin better, lack of defensive chops, poor fastball command, etc., are all more than enough to derail a guy well before Detroit, and little things like that exist in every one of those guys, just like the did the guys on the older list. The Tigers flat out lack guys that reasonably project to everyday roles in the big leagues....to get them, they need guys with tools to somehow overcome significant flaws in their game and they need that to happen with multiple players. That is exceptionally unlikely to happen.

About 5-7 years ago Tigers fans were daydreaming about the future of the team with guys like Beau Burrows, Kevin Ziomek, and Spencer Turnbull I'm the rotation, an outfield that was some combination of Christin Stewart, Mike Gerber, Derek Hill, Steven Moya, and Jose Azocar, an infield that included JaCoby Jones and AJ Simcox, and a bullpen teeming with an abundance arms like Joe Jimenez, Drew VerHagen, Jairo Labourt, Jeff Ferrell, Luis Cessa, and Drew Smith. They were also dreaming of lottery tickets like Adam Ravenelle, Gerson Moreno, Arvicent Perez, Christhian Tortosa, Zac Shepherd, and Javier Betancourt. If you're able to look at that list through the lense of 2015-2017 knowledge, it's remarkably similar to the list you rattled off....Pacheco/Shepherd, Betancourt/Santana, Crouch/Perez, and on, and on, and on.

I've spent the better part of the last 15-20 years scouting and analyzing prospects across baseball. One thing I've learned that fans often don't grasp....at any given time, every team in the league has a list of players that looks exactly like that; a bunch of guys with some tools/ability. Many of them will cap out in Double-A or Triple-A, some will get a cup of coffee or a bench role, and a couple will be larger contributors. Regardless of how highly you think of that list of players as a fan, I promise you that will be the distribution. The thing stronger systems have, aside from a longer list of prospects like those you listed (aka depth), is a separate ( and admittedly shorter) list of players with greater ability and greater odds of being significant contributors....guys you actually begin to plan for as part of your big league roster. The Tigers don't currently have that list, even a very short version of it, and when combined with a general lack of depth, you have a weak system.

Yes, yes you do. The Tigers system is quite bad right now.

Identify the guys that can get outs at the big league level, get them there as quick as reasonably possible, and use them how you need to until they break. That's the strategy and that's the reality. Anything else is all bull shit.

I think it's simply that Passan has trended more and more pro-player and there's a feeling from MLBPA (who is far more his source than the League) that the owners never actually wanted to get something done. I'd wager that's the long and short of it.

Not just any HBP; he was hit in the face. He was still on his feet and didn't look like there was any blood, so it may have hit the helmet first.

For all but the deepest and most well-rounded (strong MLB roster with a deep developmental system) teams in MLB, the 40-man roster squeeze is far more fan creation than reality. There's a significant portion of the Tigers 40-man roster that is still sub par at this point, meaning they have plenty of flexibility to manipulate the roster in any way they need to this off-season, with or without Miggy in the mix.

I'm not avoiding this...just recognize that people get sick of me shitting on prospects. It's the nature of the beast.... odds are, any prospect you ask about isn't going to be successful as a big leaguer. In terms of Bergner, he's more an up and down arm that could see some time as a back end starter if he's effective when he gets an opportunity. There's enough there to turn over a lineup once if he gains consistency, but I wouldn't go much past that. It's hard to say how he'd play in shorter stints given the differences I'm usage these days, but that could be a viable backup option for him.

That was the old Twins approach too and they ultimately walked away from it. When Rick Knapp came over to the Tigers from the Twins he was giddy at the idea of working with so many high powered arms and trying to coax more out of them... He could do things with those arms he could never do with the arms in the Twins organization. You can rationalize either approach, but one clearly had the potential to yield more impact arms.

It's purely that people have figured out how to quantify concepts that have been around forever. Scouts aren't dumb, the good ones just have the ability to see shit that most can't.... It's human nature when you can't see it yourself, you don't believe it and ultimately criticize it. Scouts have been the victim of that for years.

I'm not so sure teams have really moved past spin rate as much as they are now evaluating it in conjunction with other things....pitch tunnelling, an interesting (and quiet) slight shift back to physical characteristics, etc. They won't let "just" spin rate drive decisins, but instead look for these other things along with that. Many are still using it as an entry into the discussion and then considering other data.

And that draft netted Avila and Dirks. By most measures it was a successful draft just by virtue of those two players, even with Dirks' career ending quickly, add without considering the Tigers got 100+ appearances of effective relief work from Perry in 2009-2010. It just illustrates the point that it only takes 1-2 solid players to make a draft successful, the rest is noise.

It's org hype....

Org player.

Thinking about flying in with a friend from out here for the opening week game against the Eagles (he's a huge Eagles fan). May be looking for recommendations on lodging and what to fit into a quick weekend centered around the game. I haven't been back to Detroit in at least 7-8 years.

And that stretch at West Michigan includes a promotion to High-A.

The Bunek's that I knew in that area always had a little tendency to be out there. All the kids attended the Catholic school in Leelanau County, very vocal about their beliefs, , occasionally confrontational on the matter, etc. On another note, I'm amused by the statement later in the article discussing the millage for Leland PS. It references school buildings, plural. That's a very loose interpretation of the plurality unless something has changed since I went there.....one building, K through 12. I believe they added some temporary classrooms on the noth end of the building shortly after I left, which could result in the plural, but interesting nonetheless.

Well, it took 2+ years, but it finally got me. I was required to travel for work this week, started feeling ill and excused myself from my meetings. Stopped on the way back to the hotel for an at-home test....now I'm stuck in my hotel room in Alabama at least until Monday. Pretty classic symptoms....headache, fever, chills, general soreness, cough, stuffed up....certainly don't feel great.

Wasn't that Grinnell College, or something like that?

I think I made similar remarks about Green (and Billy Nowlin back in the day), though I tended toward the idea that they could hurt themselves with their glove, hence the reason they should only DH.