Investing

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

the 25 pt cut is already baked in almost everywhere.  If for any reason they bail it'll be 'Panic in Detroit' 🙄

I think the 25 is baked in too

They all want cheap money.

[Screwball]

This is the event. What happens after is what matters. The dual mandates of the Fed are at odds with each other. They have no escape, other than more BS Fedspeak. Jobs vs. inflation. Can't fix both at the same time. What helps one ****s the other.

To combat the problem, they need to raise and lower rates at the same time. They can't.

[Deleterious]

Real strong print on retail sales this morning.

 

[Deleterious]

 

[Deleterious]

At least get them to buy $50 billion worth of Soybeans.

 

[Tigermojo]

7 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

At least get them to buy $50 billion worth of Soybeans.

 

I thought it was who had control of the data was the point?

[Screwball]

23 hours ago, Screwball said:

This is the event. What happens after is what matters. The dual mandates of the Fed are at odds with each other. They have no escape, other than more BS Fedspeak. Jobs vs. inflation. Can't fix both at the same time. What helps one ****s the other.

To combat the problem, they need to raise and lower rates at the same time. They can't.

Adding a day later.

Everyone expects a 25bp cut. They are going to cut with the bubbles of all bubbles, otherwise known as our stock market, within a couple percent of all time highs. As pointed out in the financial media, this has happened a couple of times before, and for the next year the market went up and you made money. Let's jump on board, right?

I guess that depends on who "you" is.

What happens next will be interesting. I'm pretty happy right now. My retirement accounts went to cash yesterday. We will see what to do next.

As the old saying goes; they don't ring a bell at the top. I don't know how much more they can squeeze out of this.

Ding, ding, ding.

 

Edited Wednesday at 01:52 AM by Screwball

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, Deleterious said:

At least get them to buy $50 billion worth of Soybeans.

 

Honestly, at this point, the choice between the Chinese government and the US government controlling TikTok’s algorithm is akin to the choice between Darth Vader and Biff Tannen to control it.

[gehringer_2]

On 9/15/2025 at 10:37 PM, Screwball said:

The dual mandates of the Fed are at odds with each other. They have no escape,

The twist this time is that in the past - or at least since the 1980's - it would be unusual to have an Administration that cared (apparently) so little about inflation and pushed the Fed so hard only on the low interest rate side because politically, inflation hits everyone but unemployment only hits who it hits. Maybe because Trump being a real estate guy is just predisposed to cheap money? Whatever. If they lose control of inflation and are eventually forced to pivot, it will have to be a much harder pivot, and will mean a harder landing. Hopefully it doesn't get to where it did in 1980. 

Then add in the inflationary effect of removing undocumented workers from the labor pool, which drives up labor costs and just adds more to inflation and it's an even more internally contradictory set of policies.

Edited Wednesday at 03:16 PM by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

25 bps cut.  The more interesting info:

 

[Screwball]

Well done FOMC

[gehringer_2]

that dot plot is going to drive inflation expectations up. I'm going to guess any mortgage rate relief from this cut will be short lived as the yield curve starts to steepen. Consumers already expect over 4 percent next year - the finance guys will figure it out eventually too. 🙄

[Screwball]

The financial guys have it figured out now, as they always have. Is anyone naive enough to think all these pukes give one good **** about us?

The finance guys "are" the smartest guys in the room, and it ain't even close. But sure as hell not for us.

Anyone remember Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room. I went to a a presentation from the Enron whistleblower lady at a local college. Amazing stuff.

The banksters are the smartest guys in the room, and it ain't even close (go watch them vs. congress people). They are here to take our money. This is nothing new to anyone who's ever followed the markets and paid attention.

What the Fed did today will only make the rich richer, and the poor more poor. It's what they do, and have been doing it for as long as I can remember. Like Carlin said; they don't give a **** about you.

They also know, eventually this entire facade of an economy will all come tumbling down. They will run off with their riches to their gated communities, yachts, and private islands while millions more of Americans will end up in the streets. Many more will teeter on the edge while they fight for food where they live. The second great depression (my parents lived through the first one) will evolve.

When **** gets real - you need a scapegoat - enter Donald Trump. He will take the blame, and he won't care. He might be too stupid to know he was the "mark" or if he does, he doesn't care. None of them do. They have no conscious, none of them. Like G. Gordon Liddy said in his book "tell me what corner to stand on." Total loyalty to the party. Right out of 1984. That's what they all do.

They got a real winner with Trump. He's like the Rodney Dangerfield character in Caddy Shack. He keeps everyone distracted while the smartest guys in the room run off with all the money. What's not to like? And when they finally blow up the whole ****house, he gets blamed.

It will be a spectacular blow up, one of the best ever! LOL!

What a ****ing world we live in.

 

 

[Deleterious]

CPI Should print twice before the next meeting.  I wouldn't be totally shocked if inflation is over 4% by then.  

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, Screwball said:

The financial guys have it figured out now, as they always have. Is anyone naive enough to think all these pukes give one good **** about us?

The finance guys "are" the smartest guys in the room, and it ain't even close. But sure as hell not for us.

Anyone remember Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room. I went to a a presentation from the Enron whistleblower lady at a local college. Amazing stuff.

The banksters are the smartest guys in the room, and it ain't even close (go watch them vs. congress people). They are here to take our money. This is nothing new to anyone who's ever followed the markets and paid attention.

What the Fed did today will only make the rich richer, and the poor more poor. It's what they do, and have been doing it for as long as I can remember. Like Carlin said; they don't give a **** about you.

They also know, eventually this entire facade of an economy will all come tumbling down. They will run off with their riches to their gated communities, yachts, and private islands while millions more of Americans will end up in the streets. Many more will teeter on the edge while they fight for food where they live. The second great depression (my parents lived through the first one) will evolve.

When **** gets real - you need a scapegoat - enter Donald Trump. He will take the blame, and he won't care. He might be too stupid to know he was the "mark" or if he does, he doesn't care. None of them do. They have no conscious, none of them. Like G. Gordon Liddy said in his book "tell me what corner to stand on." Total loyalty to the party. Right out of 1984. That's what they all do.

They got a real winner with Trump. He's like the Rodney Dangerfield character in Caddy Shack. He keeps everyone distracted while the smartest guys in the room run off with all the money. What's not to like? And when they finally blow up the whole ****house, he gets blamed.

It will be a spectacular blow up, one of the best ever! LOL!

What a ****ing world we live in.

 

 

Honest question: If the American economy is certain to blow up, what do you recommend our action item be here? Jurisdictional diversification? Gold bars and crypto? Something else? 

Edited 14 hours ago by chasfh

[1776]

35 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Honest question: If the American economy is certain to blow up, what do you recommend our action item be here? Jurisdictional diversification? Gold bars and crypto? Something else? 

For diversification purposes, I’m looking at an international tulip bulb ETF. Morningstar has a positive rating on it.  The ETF fund is based in the Netherlands.

Edited 14 hours ago by 1776

[chasfh]

26 minutes ago, 1776 said:

For diversification purposes, I’m looking at an international tulip bulb ETF. Morningstar has a positive rating on it.  The ETF fund is based in the Netherlands.

Too late, I’m already short on that.

[gehringer_2]

7 hours ago, Deleterious said:

CPI Should print twice before the next meeting.  I wouldn't be totally shocked if inflation is over 4% by then.  

Of course, it won't take that many BLS directors fired until the admin gets a number it likes.

[Deleterious]

No clue what Nvidia is doing.

My neighbor bought a bunch of OTM Intel calls when they gave 10% to the government.  Next cigar session better be on him.

 

[Screwball]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Honest question: If the American economy is certain to blow up, what do you recommend our action item be here? Jurisdictional diversification? Gold bars and crypto? Something else? 

Hold hard assets like land. Start a garden. Reduce or eliminate debt. Limit your lifestyle. Learn to cook, fix things at home, your car if possible. Find a place in the county who sells food for when it becomes unavailable in the big stores, like farm markets. Get to know your neighbors. Install security cameras (have 4). Just a few things.

If you have a job, STFU so they don't have an excuse to eliminate you. Robots and AI will take every job they think they can do - and you may be next - so don't piss them off.

If you are just getting out of high school, you are ****ed. In 1984 (ironically, thinking of the book) you could feed a family of 6 for an annual salary of 14k. You didn't live like like kings, but you ate and had heat. A search will tell you today it's around 44k for a family of 6.

Exponents are a bitch.

It's already starting. I see it in Cornhole. We now have an official soup kitchen. In the last year I have noticed more homeless sitting along the streets asking for help. And entire family was sitting at Kroger begging for food. Don't see them know, probably got run off.

Today is as good as it's going to get. Plan accordingly.

[Screwball]

2 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

No clue what Nvidia is doing.

My neighbor bought a bunch of OTM Intel calls when they gave 10% to the government.  Next cigar session better be on him.

 

No ****. 

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Screwball said:

Hold hard assets like land. Start a garden. Reduce or eliminate debt. Limit your lifestyle. Learn to cook, fix things at home, your car if possible. Find a place in the county who sells food for when it becomes unavailable in the big stores, like farm markets. Get to know your neighbors. Install security cameras (have 4). Just a few things.

So become you. Got it. 😉

[Screwball]

15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

So become you. Got it. 😉

You asked, I told you. If you don't like it, FO.

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Screwball said:

You asked, I told you. If you don't like it, FO.

Don’t you know winks mean kidding?

Edited 8 hours ago by chasfh

[oblong]

Maybe people can sell their FJB signs and flags.