Investing

[pfife]

Uh huh

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

But, but tariffs….

 

Ever heard the one about you get 2 economists in a room and you get 3 opinions? Here is Fed Governor Micheal Barr on 2/17:

Quote

Turning to the other component of our mandate, inflation based on personal consumption expenditures remains elevated at 3 percent, about where it was a year ago. Disinflation, which started in mid-2022, slowed last year, as goods price inflation picked up, in large part due to tariffs. That pattern appeared to continue in the inflation data released last week. Looking ahead, it is reasonable to forecast that tariff effects on inflation will begin to abate later this year, but there are many reasons to be concerned that inflation will remain elevated. I see the risk of persistent inflation above our 2 percent target as significant, which means we need to remain vigilant.

Speech by Governor Barr on artificial intelligence and the labor market - Federal Reserve Board

Edited Thursday at 04:02 AM by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

The fact they are debating if it will or won't be 2% seems like a win for tariffs.  I know I was wrong predicting much higher inflation.

The interesting thing to me is what happens when the left regains the White House.  The way they have railed against tariffs, you would assume they would all be stricken from the books at 12:01PM on January 20th.  But government doesn't have a long history of giving up revenue streams like that.  So we'll see what happens.  

[Deleterious]

I think a member of the British Royal Family was just arrested for insider trading.

Former Prince Andrew Arrested Amid Epstein Probe

Quote

The arrest isn’t linked to allegations of sexual misconduct but to Mountbatten-Windsor’s role as trade envoy for the British government. The emails suggested that, as trade envoy, he on several occasions emailed confidential government reports to Epstein. Mountbatten-Windsor quit that role in 2011. Police said last week they were looking into the reports that he may have run afoul of laws governing conduct in a public office.

 

[Tigeraholic1]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

I think a member of the British Royal Family was just arrested for insider trading.

Former Prince Andrew Arrested Amid Epstein Probe

 

We freely allow it here in the U.S. In fact we encourage our elected officials to do it. Just ask Nancy Pelosi. 🙂

Edited Thursday at 04:50 PM by Tigeraholic1

[Screwball]

How about a little chart porn, just for fun. First the S&P 500 6 month chart by day. The yellow arrows are Fed rate cuts. Going back to October 25 the big long red candle established that price range. It has now established another above that, and tried to break out above, but has failed. Looks like the pigmen of Wall Street loved the volatility.

On the other hand - the MAGS. Same time frame.

[Deleterious]

OK.  Let me know how that turns out

Tim Cook Warned by CIA That China Could Move on Taiwan by 2027

[chasfh]

So, in addition to dumping PLTR, which I got completely out of when it fell through 153.24 last month, in the past two days I've been dumped completely out of IBM (252.44) and MSFT (382.01). I put trailing stop limit sell orders on those, same as PLTR, so I could take profits.

All I have left of those big tech companies I've had for the past couple year is GOOG, which already sold some at 310.69 a few weeks ago, and will sell again at 294.13 and finally at 276.62, if it doesn't go back up and push those trailing stops up with it. That will pretty much get me out of the stocks I had bought two to three years ago to obtain a stake in AI.

I have re-expressed some of these proceeds into small positions in a number of stocks in other leading-edge technologies like space infrastructure, satellite connectivity, nuclear/SMR, grid modernization, robotics, and metabolic health. I was looking at maybe putting down a stake in quantum computing, but it's probably too soon in the industry life cycle for that. I set down an initial amount in mid-January, and am buying in tranches this month and next month to complete the stake. So far the whole basket is up +3%, even though only four of the ten positions in total are up.

 

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

All I have left of those big tech companies ....

 

I'm out on the Mags as well. Have some individuals I still like and picked up some Euro stock indexes to diversify some more and a lot of short term Treas for the time being.

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm out on the Mags as well. Have some individuals I still like and picked up some Euro stock indexes to diversify some more and a lot of short term Treas for the time being.

Definitely looking into Stoxx 600.

[Deleterious]

This is just a $200 billion plot to increase my RAM and hard drive prices.