Investing

[CMRivdogs]

2 hours ago, Hongbit said:

Affordability has become almost as much of a hinderance to housing as the rate.  

Skyrocketing unemployment and higher average debt to income also make it  harder for many average people to qualify.     

Seems like we're repeating 2020. This time without the virus, so far

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, ewsieg said:

I keep on repeating to myself that we are still largely a service economy thus the tariffs aren't as bad as many make them out to be, but we seem to be going in the direction of the doomsday economists that felt the tariffs would destroy the economy.  

Even before Trump was elected, Paul Krugman wrote a piece about the maximum likely effects of Tariffs and the proportions of the economy dependent on import/export and he basically said the same thing - a tariff regime would be counter-productive but not likely the end of the world. Of course what nobody anticipated was that it would not only be tariffs but pure chaos, and the chaos is probably having at least as much deleterious effect on the economy as the tariffs themselves.

Plus the thing this all misses is that tariffs do have an outsize effect on consumer's sense of inflation because other than food, a ton of consumer shopping is for imported goods. And as the Biden admin found out, it doesn't matter what the inflation number really is, all that matters is how it feels to voters. And that not only has the obvious political fallout but also, to the degree it reduces consumer confidence, a slowdown can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Our factory production is up against 2024.

considering that the real GDP increased around 45% from 2010 to 2024, the total increase in industrial production is paltry. Even the ~1.1% increase so far this year would be a loss of ground vs the estimated 2% GDP increase.

[Deleterious]

25 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

considering that the real GDP increased around 45% from 2010 to 2024, the total increase in industrial production is paltry. Even the ~1.1% increase so far this year would be a loss of ground vs the estimated 2% GDP increase.

I guess I sort of dropped that post in when people were discussing service industries, but that wasn't the point.  The jobs report said we lost 78k manufacturing jobs this year, and I find it interesting we are producing more even with those losses.

Plus, GDP measures dollars and the manufacturing index does not.  You can't compare those two

[Deleterious]

Important for future Michigan QB's.

 

[gehringer_2]

38 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I guess I sort of dropped that post in when people were discussing service industries, but that wasn't the point.  The jobs report said we lost 78k manufacturing jobs this year, and I find it interesting we are producing more even with those losses.

Plus, GDP measures dollars and the manufacturing index does not.  You can't compare those two

If industrial productivity goes up 2%, and production is up 1%, then 1% of your work force is now unemployed.

Edited 2 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

Most of our major reports are piss poor ways to report the state of the economy. There are many faults with them all. CPI for example, and what they call "owners equivalent rent" and how it is weighted as far as the "headline" number. This holds true for all these reports - not counting the revisions. Giggle. 

This is what we, the people via the news, and retail investors get. The pigmen of Wall Street are not fooled. Remember, a mid level Wall Street bankster makes more money than the CEO of the company you work for, and by a lot. That's why he's there. He knows more about your company/industry/sector than the people running the company.

The rest of it is theater. I'm not so sure Orange Hitler isn't getting setup to take the blame for the biggest economic meltdown since the Great depression of 1929. It's a dirty job but someone has to do it. He don't give a **** - he's a showman. They all are.

We should have listened to George Carlin circa 1991. They don't give a **** about you.