Investing

[Screwball]

Now that I have a little more time.  I didn't follow this much because I don't really care.  I did kinda watch the stock price go goofy with all the BS that went along with that.  The link above shows how much the price of the stock went up and down (along with selling).  By a bunch.  Some got rich, some got smoked, most smoked.  It was and still is insanity.  But I digress...

In this case, the dude had problems. One has to wonder if he was also worried about getting clipped for insider trading. This is a perfect setup for that.

"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacot Steel,"

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Now that I have a little more time.  I didn't follow this much because I don't really care.  I did kinda watch the stock price go goofy with all the BS that went along with that.  The link above shows how much the price of the stock went up and down (along with selling).  By a bunch.  Some got rich, some got smoked, most smoked.  It was and still is insanity.  But I digress...

In this case, the dude had problems. One has to wonder if he was also worried about getting clipped for insider trading. This is a perfect setup for that.

"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacot Steel,"

yeah - sounds like something personal beside just the downturn at BBB. Closing 20% of your stores is almost SOP for retail nowadays - not that much the kind of thing you jump out a window over.

[Screwball]

Markets closed today due to Labor Day, but the world keeps on ticking.

California Calls Grid Emergency With Power Use at Five-Year High - Bloomberg

Oil producer group OPEC+ surprises energy markets with a small production cut - CNBC   Brent crude was up 3% on the news

Russia will not resume gas supplies to Europe until sanctions lifted, says Moscow - Guardian

The futures will be interesting tonight and into the opening tomorrow.

 

[Deleterious]

Ethereum starts "The Merge" this week.  Basically going from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.  Also it is supposed to reduce energy used by Ethereum by 99.95%.

More info:

What is the Ethereum Merge? Here are 5 things you should know

[1984Echoes]

Why would Brent Crude be up on a smaller than expected cut in crude output by OPEC+ ?

They've either got that backwards or they are pointing to the wrong evidence.

[gehringer_2]

44 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Why would Brent Crude be up on a smaller than expected cut in crude output by OPEC+ ?

They've either got that backwards or they are pointing to the wrong evidence.

the 'expected' cut (or increase) is a basically a political outcome and is driven by political factors. The actual world production/consumption balance is what it is independent of that. If OPEC made a cut that was smaller than expected that is a measure of the political/policy unity inside OPEC vs what was expected of that unity, it doesn't mean (at least in the eyes of traders) that the cut that was made was or wasn't enough to firm up prices. Enough decided it was to increase the price.

It's a measure of the artificiality in the stock market that stocks don't behave this way (e.g. if Amazon makes a lot of money, but less than expected, their stock may still fall). But that's the difference between a piece of paper (or digital entry) representing a share of stock, and a real consumable product with real inventory/supply/demand factors responding to price and vice versa.

Edited September 5, 2022 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

58 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Ethereum starts "The Merge" this week.  Basically going from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.  Also it is supposed to reduce energy used by Ethereum by 99.95%.

More info:

What is the Ethereum Merge? Here are 5 things you should know

Don't give a rat's ass about Ethereum but I'm hoping this puts a whole ton of high performance video cards on the market cheap. 

Edited September 5, 2022 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

28 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

the 'expected' cut (or increase) is a basically a political outcome and is driven by political factors. The actual world production/consumption balance is what it is independent of that. If OPEC made a cut that was smaller than expected that is a measure of the political/policy unity inside OPEC vs what was expected of that unity, it doesn't mean (at least in the eyes of traders) that the cut that was made was or wasn't enough to firm up prices. Enough decided it was to increase the price.

It's a measure of the artificiality in the stock market that stocks don't behave this way (e.g. if Amazon makes a lot of money, but less than expected, their stock may still fall). But that's the difference between a piece of paper (or digital entry) representing a share of stock, and a real product with real inventory/supply/demand factors responding to price and vice versa.

 

If market sentiment is that oil purchasing will become tighter based on supply/ demand (free market capitalism) then the price goes up. If more oil production comes on line than demand or there is demand destruction, the price comes down. This should be true both for spot and futures. If you are arguing that the "political outcome" itself is enough to move the markets adverse to that outcome, based on the removal of a "gray area" so to speak on that outcome...? I don't see it that way.

If the market sentiment is that OPEC+ will cut production 500,000 barrels per day, prices will go up accordingly. If they actually only cut (surprise!) or agree to cut 100,000 bpd instead of the expected 500,000 then prices will come down. If Russian oil is excluded from Europe but makes the rest of the oil market tighter (by the exclusion of Urals, etc.), prices go up. If we get back on board in the Iranian agreement and drop the sanctions, they have 95 mill barrels sitting in storage right now that will hit the market almost immediately, but their full ramp-up to daily 4 mill bpd will take into mid-2023 (rough guess) again, prices will come down.

It's pure supply and demand and the market reaction to those factors, even if they are future actions.

So I went in and took an actual look at the article. 

They were not expecting a 500K production reduction and got only 100K. I haven't been paying attention to oil as much as I usually do recently so still had my mind wrapped around OPEC+ wanting to make a larger production cut. But that was at least a month or two ago. Recently that sentiment had changed to: they were actually not going to do ANY production cut.. that was the expectation. But they instead did a 100K bpd cut.

So there IS a rise in price based exactly on what I outlined... 

The only problem, personally, me... was my lack of attentiveness.

HAH!

[gehringer_2]

15 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

f you are arguing that the "political outcome" itself is enough to move the markets adverse to that outcome, based on the removal of a "gray area" so to speak on that outcome...? I don't see it that way.

I wasn't very clear - I was arguing the opposite. What I was arguing was the analyst/media/talking head consideration of the question of what the cut might be and whether a cut was bigger or smaller than that are both fundamentally political questions and thus the market does not and should not respond to them, but rather only to whatever cut actually was or wasn't made. 

-and of course to whatever the market judges as the likelihood that any given OPEC pronouncement is actually held to by its members! 

Edited September 5, 2022 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

Aaah, yeah, gotcha.

The only issue is: even commodity markets are not immune to investor sentiment.

Media and any other talking head, may not be attuned to markets as well as they think, so I can see the case for not reacting to their every (or ANY) statement. But Putin/ Iran/ EU/ OPEC or OPEC+ actually making a statement on what they are going to do in the oil markets is enough to move the needle. As it should be, they have real effects in the oil market. And analysts are looked at as the experts (which doesn't guarantee they are correct) at trying to decipher all the tea leaves related to this market, which means that investors will usually follow their consensus.

At least until, as you say, the Actual cuts or production numbers come to light.

 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by 1984Echoes

[Screwball]

Half a million bbs of crude is a knat on an elephants ass in the big picture (the US of A needs about 18 million a day), and I don't know where the "less than expected" came from.

That's not what investors should get out of this meeting.

Decent article here by Reuters; OPEC+ agrees small oil production cut

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Half a million bbs of crude is a knat on an elephants ass in the big picture (the US of A needs about 18 million a day), and I don't know where the "less than expected" came from.

That's not what investors should get out of this meeting.

Decent article here by Reuters; OPEC+ agrees small oil production cut

No doubt $90/BBL is a price point OPEC would like to support. Prices have been bouncing around that point too much for the Sheiks (or Putin) to be happy.

It's ironic that while Iran is busy getting into bed with Putin as an arms supplier, if they do sign a new nuke deal that allows their exports to start heading up, prices probably will not be supportable at $90/bbl and that would be about the cruelest thing they could to Vladdie.

Edited September 6, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

"Vladdie" isn't worried.  They are doing just fine.  EU and the West are going to be fucked.  Self inflicted and stupid.  But that's what we do.

****

Note to 5/3 bank - and as we all know - I hate banks - someone, or a series of someones, are going to have a bad day.

I paid off an installment loan last month.  I even got a check for the over payment of a small amount.  I also got a letter telling me it has been paid off.

Today, they took money out of my account.  The installment loan is through the very bank that doesn't understand it is paid off - the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.

So I call customer service.  I type in my information and it locks me out of my account because I have entered my PIN too many times (once).  After another attempt and finally getting a "real" person - they ask me what my problem is, which is now two - my extra payment problem, and now my log on problem.

Did I mention I can't understand a fucking word they say?

They tell me to log into my account - I explain I can't.  They tell me I need to call customer service.  Who, exactly, am I talking to now?????

No, hook me up with someone that can help.  I can fix the login problem, which they did, then told me to call customer service to get the payment fixed.  Why don't you just transfer me?  Ok, hold on.

Then they went poof.  Didn't hang up, just went poof.  So I wait on the line for someone else.  Will they come????  Nope, after waiting another 20 minutes.  All of a sudden it hangs up and I just spent an hour or so of my life I will never get back thanks to the "outstanding" customer service of 5/3 bank.

Fucking swine banks.

I went through the same shit the other day with Spectrum trying to get a new modem - not resolved either - that was on the docket for today.  But not now.

Customer service is a mirage.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Customer service is a mirage.

yup. Between IT incompetence and costumer service incompetence you get the perfect storm when the customer service you need involves IT.

When I worked for Baker Hughes they used to roll your password every 90 days, which everyone would forget about because you didn't get a warning e-mail - you just had to track it yourself. So they put 4 computers in the lobby of Corp HQ in Houston that allowed to you reset your PW. Brilliant - 3/4 the engineering staff was distributed around the world at account sites. So you call tech service because your PW expired and you tell them - I'm in Timbuktu and need my PW reset/unlocked. And no 'effin joke they read back to you from their script: "Have you accessed the PW reset terminals in the lobby?" 

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

It's bigger than CS and IT.  It is management in general.  There are too many dickwads in positions they shouldn't be in, and more dickwads hiring people who have no business in the positions they put them in.  A self licking ice cream cone of ineptness, stupidity, and arrogance.

I have had more e-mails from headhunters looking for engineers/CAD people in the last year than I had over the last 10.  They can't find people, I get that.  I applied for a couple, but I never get past the first phone interview.  Why?  Cause I'm too fucking old. I am at the age I can collect SS and make all the money I want - I would go back and make a killing - but it would have to be the right deal.

They don't care about hiring "good, competent" people, as they don't want to pay the price for a guy me, they know I'm too old to be turned into a ass-kissing yes man, and I might actually question something.

I don't feel sorry for them.  Eat your own stupidity.

[gehringer_2]

On 9/2/2022 at 10:17 PM, gehringer_2 said:

Oil in a gas pipeline? Russian innovation?

Quote

 

Gazprom (GAZP.MM) on Friday said the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Europe's major supply route, would remain shut as a turbine at a compressor station had an engine oil leak, sending wholesale gas prices soaring. read more

When asked when Nord Stream 1 would start pumping gas again, Markelov told Reuters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in the Russian Pacific port of Vladivostok: "You should ask Siemens. They have to repair equipment first."......

Siemens Energy said it was not currently commissioned by Gazprom to do maintenance work on the turbine with the suspected engine oil leak, but was on standby.

The company, headquartered in Munich, Germany, said on Tuesday that it did not comprehend Gazprom's presentation of the situation.

It said an engine oil leak at the last remaining turbine in operation at the Portovaya compressor station did not constitute a reason to keep the pipeline closed.

An engine oil leak Gazprom (GAZP.MM) said has been found at the last remaining turbine in operation at the Portovaya compressor station does not constitute a technical reason for stopping operation, Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) said on Friday.

"Such leaks do not normally affect the operation of a turbine and can be sealed on site. It is a routine procedure within the scope of maintenance work," the company said...

..."Irrespective of this, we have already pointed out several times that there are sufficient other turbines available at the Portovaya compressor station for Nord Stream 1 to operate," Siemens Energy said.....

 

[gehringer_2]

On 9/2/2022 at 10:17 PM, gehringer_2 said:

Oil in a gas pipeline? Russian innovation?

Gazprom (GAZP.MM) on Friday said the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Europe's major supply route, would remain shut as a turbine at a compressor station had an engine oil leak, sending wholesale gas prices soaring. read more

When asked when Nord Stream 1 would start pumping gas again, Markelov told Reuters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in the Russian Pacific port of Vladivostok: "You should ask Siemens. They have to repair equipment first."......

Siemens Energy said it was not currently commissioned by Gazprom to do maintenance work on the turbine with the suspected engine oil leak, but was on standby.

The company, headquartered in Munich, Germany, said on Tuesday that it did not comprehend Gazprom's presentation of the situation.

It said an engine oil leak at the last remaining turbine in operation at the Portovaya compressor station did not constitute a reason to keep the pipeline closed.

An engine oil leak Gazprom (GAZP.MM) said has been found at the last remaining turbine in operation at the Portovaya compressor station does not constitute a technical reason for stopping operation, Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) said on Friday.

"Such leaks do not normally affect the operation of a turbine and can be sealed on site. It is a routine procedure within the scope of maintenance work," the company said...

..."Irrespective of this, we have already pointed out several times that there are sufficient other turbines available at the Portovaya compressor station for Nord Stream 1 to operate," Siemens Energy said.....

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-gazprom-says-nord-stream-1-resumption-depends-siemens-energy-2022-09-06/

[1984Echoes]

They're obviously full of shit and Putin (or Lavrov or whomever, I forget...) already stated clearly and unequivocally that they will not restart Nord 1 until sanctions are dropped. It has nothing to do with maintenance and everything to do with desperation. 

I think sanctions are going to drop the hammer on the Russian economy. The slow burn so far is going to jump up into a conflagration soon enough. Oil will be shut out of Europe in December, and price-capped wherever the US and EU can hold sway outside of Europe. That's their money maker. Russia knows their economy is going to be screwed soon so...

This is their panic/ power play to try to get the sanctions dropped. Shut off gas to Europe. 

[Deleterious]

Russia will be fine as long as China and India keep buying their oil.  

[1984Echoes]

I think those two do not purchase the same amount as Europe. I could be wrong but... 

And they certainly cannot replace EU purchases of gas as the infrastructure is just not there... although most of the money is in oil so Russia may not even care...

Too many unknown factors to get a good read on what all the impacts will end up being... but I don't think the sanctions and the EU turning off the Russian oil spigot are helpful.

Other unknown factors: whether a recession is in the works, or can be avoided. The US might escape that but I doubt Europe does. 

Also: The other thing that may hurt Russia but only if it happens is if we get back into agreement with Iran on the nuclear deal. They're sitting on 95 mill barrels that they can dump on the market quickly, and even if it takes 6 months to ramp up to full production, once they do it's going to loosen up market supply.

Lots of unknown factors adding up to some serious gray area over the next year.

[gehringer_2]

The problem for Russia is gas. China and Asia can absorb Russia's oil and the market just shifts so that sanctioning countries get their oil from suppliers displaced from Asian sales - because an oil tanker from anywhere can go anywhere. But Russia's gas infrastructure points into Europe and that can't change very fast. They will be faced with the prospect of reducing oil production in fields that co-produce gas, or flaring off billions of $ in gas they can't sell.

[Screwball]

8 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Russia will be fine as long as China and India keep buying their oil.  

And they will, while creating new alliances with other things as well.  It will be like a giant middle finger to the US. This is self induced stupidity by the EU leadership and the West. Example:

“Lehman Event” Looms For Europe As Energy Companies Face $1.5 Trillion in Margin Calls

This is what happens when we act like a bunch of dumb fucks.

[Screwball]

Saudi Arabia And Iran Held Secret Meetings To Bolster Collaboration - Oilprice.com

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Saudi Arabia And Iran Held Secret Meetings To Bolster Collaboration - Oilprice.com

LOL - There's religion, there's tribalism, and there's money. 1 and 2 can always find a way to the back seat when it's time to take care of #3

 

and WTI under $85 this AM

Edited September 7, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

Terrible inflation number released today, up .1% even with gas prices continuing to fall.  S&P500 down 2% right out of the gate.