06/05/2023 6:40pm EDT Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I tend to agree with Chas here... there are always a lot of inferences of friction between the two of them (a certain cohost of "Days of Roar" seems to always suggest it), but really there is little evidence they arent simpatico. And I'm guessing both of them knew what this season would be like and that it was likely to be an evaluation season / clean slate after the departure of Al.

The other thing is this fanbase, for better or worse, loves AJ. Making him the scapegoat for a 90 loss season, particularly when most expected a 90 loss season, would seem to be really terrible PR.

it's not just the two of them though. This is a triangle. Owner's have a certain amount of agency -  and if Chris I thinks he's going to be the butt of the jokes at the owner's meeting for having no passion to improve his team..... or whatever worm of discontent you want to imagine works its way into Ilitch's psyche, the guy who will be on the thinnest ice if Ilitch starts getting itchy will be Hinch. Now note - I only said 50/50 in the OP. It's not a hard prediction. I just don't think we should be naive about the way these things often go.

Edited June 11, 2023 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

If the Tigers have settled into being the Royals, what do you see as our best hope for the future? What would have to happen, organizationally, for things to turn around? Or is the organization solid and it’s a matter of tweaking current philosophies, strategies, and the like? Is it possible for us to do a 180 from where we are now and still win a pennant or a ring in 2023?

Its hard to know the minutiae of what specific changes they need to make, but at a high level, they need to be able to produce more talent internally that actually makes it to the major leagues and is useful. And that is the case regardless of how Chris Ilitch or Scott Harris use the checkbook going forward. Even the good teams that spend big money produce players internally. And this team has done a pretty poor job of it for a long time.

People don't like hearing hard truths, but until that changes, the beatings are likely to continue.

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

it's not just the two of them though. This is a triangle. Owner's have a certain amount of agency -  and if Chris I thinks he's going to be the butt of the jokes at the owner's meeting for having no passion to improve his team..... or whatever worm of discontent you want to imagine works its way into Ilitch's psyche, the guy who will be on the thinnest ice if Ilitch starts getting itchy will be Hinch. Now note - I only said 50/50 in the OP. It's not a hard prediction. I just don't think we should be naive about the way these things often go.

As much as people in Detroit bitch about Chris I, and not entirely without reason, I don't think his reputation among the rest of baseball is nearly as poor as it is among Tigers fans. And objectively, I'm not even sure he's bottom five for owners; especially when you have guys like John Fisher, Arte Moreno, the Montforts, Jerry Reinsdorf, etc. in the club.

As far as how the owner approaches this year, I'm guessing he's sympatico as well. And views AJ as a part of the braintrust, not as the holdover employee under evaluation 

[buddha]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Tell me I was wrong about him. 

i said he should have been fired after the jd martinez trade, why would i tell you youre wrong?  

[Jim Cowan]

I don't see Hinch getting fired, he isn't important enough.  His resume is the same as every other manager's... he loses with bad players, and wins with good players, although in his case there is an asterisk...good players treat him with contempt.  Nevertheless,  I think that Harris has too much class to blame this s*** show on Hinch.  Hinch really has nothing to do with it.

[casimir]

7 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I tend to agree with Chas here... there are always a lot of inferences of friction between the two of them (a certain cohost of "Days of Roar" seems to always suggest it), but really there is little evidence they arent simpatico. And I'm guessing both of them knew what this season would be like and that it was likely to be an evaluation season / clean slate after the departure of Al.

The other thing is this fanbase, for better or worse, loves AJ. Making him the scapegoat for a 90 loss season, particularly when most expected a 90 losses or more, would seem to be really terrible PR.

At the same time, never underestimate the ability for an organization to mangle up a PR spun move.  I don't think the job that Hinch has done the last two seasons should lead to his firing unless he's culpable for the lack of offense and poor rotation health.

[chasfh]

15 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Its hard to know the minutiae of what specific changes they need to make, but at a high level, they need to be able to produce more talent internally that actually makes it to the major leagues and is useful. And that is the case regardless of how Chris Ilitch or Scott Harris use the checkbook going forward. Even the good teams that spend big money produce players internally. And this team has done a pretty poor job of it for a long time.

People don't like hearing hard truths, but until that changes, the beatings are likely to continue.

Yes, I agree with this, which is consistent with how I feel about it. It’s the appearance of throwing in the towel on this regime literally one-third of the way through the first season that I have so much trouble fathoming. Was there a serious expectation of a major transformation into contender status by now? I guess I don’t understand that serious a level of impatience, again, 2-1/2 months into a regime, particularly considering how devastated the prior regime left the entire organization top to bottom. It’s getting razed and rebuilt, and that’s going to take years, with an “s”. So I’m just going to settle in for the ride and not take the losses too hard, because almost no one on the roster today will be on the next Tigers playoff team, and very few players on the next Tigers playoff team are even in the system today, mainly because this is still Al’s system.

Edited June 11, 2023 by chasfh

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

I don't see Hinch getting fired, he isn't important enough.  His resume is the same as every other manager's... he loses with bad players, and wins with good players, although in his case there is an asterisk...good players treat him with contempt.  Nevertheless,  I think that Harris has too much class to blame this s*** show on Hinch.  Hinch really has nothing to do with it.

This is a hot take and you’re certainly welcome to it, but I couldn’t disagree more with this wishful thinking.

My impression from the reading I’ve done is that A.J. Hinch is THE North Star for the coaches and players throughout this organization, including—maybe even especially—the minor leaguers. That’s not new—that started under Avila. He’s the face of the franchise for the guys, and he’s working in lockstep with Scott Harris, who almost certainly does not have regular face time with players, to remake the franchise from top to bottom. They are not working at cross-purposes, and A.J. Is not simply a bystander letting things roll over him—he is active and in on much of the decision-making. No one is guaranteeing this will all result in rings. They could completely fail and be fired for their efforts, but that’s going to take years, not months. Maybe they won’t work together for the rest of their respective careers, but the implication I’ve read from others here that Harris is looking for the first opportunity to dump Hinch because he wasn’t Harris’s hire is a fantasy.

[gehringer_2]

the thing we don't see that will also play a part is what Harris represented to Ilitch as the target outcome for this season. WE can sit here and say there never should have been any expectation, but none of us know if that is the expection Harris presented to Ilitch, which is the standard by which he and his team are likely to be judged. Sure,  I would be surprised if Harris doesn't more or less have a pass from Ilitch for this year, but I'd be a lot less surprised if the management team is going to be on a much shorter leash as early as next year. Once an owner gets impatient enough to make the 1st change, his patience to see movement is likley to grow progressively shorter, whether ours does or not.  😟

The third regime enjoying the accolades for success built on a foundation that the 2nd regime put into place but was not allowed to see through to completion is an all too common US business story.

Edited June 11, 2023 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

This is a hot take and you’re certainly welcome to it, but I couldn’t disagree more with this wishful thinking.

My impression from the reading I’ve done is that A.J. Hinch is THE North Star for the coaches and players throughout this organization, including—maybe even especially—the minor leaguers. That’s not new—that started under Avila. He’s the face of the franchise for the guys, and he’s working in lockstep with Scott Harris, who almost certainly does not have regular face time with players, to remake the franchise from top to bottom. They are not working at cross-purposes, and A.J. Is not simply a bystander letting things roll over him—he is active and in on much of the decision-making. No one is guaranteeing this will all result in rings. They could completely fail and be fired for their efforts, but that’s going to take years, not months. Maybe they won’t work together for the rest of their respective careers, but the implication I’ve read from others here that Harris is looking for the first opportunity to dump Hinch because he wasn’t Harris’s hire is a fantasy.

100%... not necessarily on this board but prominent voices in Tigers media keep trying to claim drama where there is none. 

And from AJ's perspective, he has looked engaged all throughout this season like someone who is invested as a stakeholder. And he has a front office background dating back to before he was in Houston... he understands where the org is at and undoubtedly he understands the long game better than the old school, Jimmy Smokes type of manager.

I won't go as far as to say he'll be here many years from now. But if he's gone, it won't be via him quitting.... he isn't Bobby Ross or Jimmy Smokes ca. 1999.

Edited June 11, 2023 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

24 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

the thing we don't see that will also play a part is what Harris represented to Ilitch as the target outcome for this season. WE can sit here and say there never should have been any expectation, but none of us know if that is the expection Harris presented to Ilitch, which is the standard by which he and his team are likely to be judged. Sure,  I would be surprised if Harris doesn't more or less have a pass from Ilitch for this year, but I'd be a lot less surprised if the management team is going to be on a much shorter leash as early as next year. Once an owner gets impatient enough to make the 1st change, his patience to see movement is likley to grow progressively shorter, whether ours does or not.  😟

The third regime enjoying the accolades for success built on a foundation that the 2nd regime put into place but was not allowed to see through to completion is an all too common US business story.

I would bet you dollars to dimes that Harris was upfront and candid with Chris Ilitch about our not being able to contend this year with the players we both have and could reasonably obtain, and my clue is that Chris Ilitch spent in 2022 when Al Avila told him and everybody else that we would contend, and Ilitch didn’t spend in 2023 after Harris took over with essentially the same players on board.

To your implied point, this does not mean Ilitch could never, ever possibly end up firing both Harris and Hinch after setting them up to fail by starving them of resources. This could happen, because anything could happen. But for as much as I’ve railed on Baby Doc through the years, I am going to believe that he and Harris have settled on a long-term plan they intend to see through to either its success or its resulting failure, and that Ilitch will not be pulling the plug early because I believe Harris has completely prepared him for the investment in resources and time it is going to take. I am setting aside the deep cynicism about the Tigers organization that the Avila regime has inculcated in me and am choosing to believe Ilitch/Harris are going to make an actual, honest, concerted effort to build a winner over the long haul. And if that makes me the Tigers’ huckleberry, well, then, oh my darling, oh my darling, oh my darling Clementine.

Edited June 11, 2023 by chasfh

[Tiger337]

I don't think there is any drama or conflict between Harris and Hinch, but A.J. Hinch, the face of the franchise? That is pretty extreme.  I thought Baez and Cabrera were the faces of the franchise!

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I would bet you dollars to dimes...

We hope both that all this is true and that Harris is truly competent, but in truth how Harris talked to Ilitch - at least initially - is probably not that simple. Remember he had to get the job first. There is a calculus there right? If you come into the interview and are brutally honest about how bad it is and how long it will really take, you might not get the job because you know there is probably another guy out there who will  come in and wax poetic about all the potential they see in the system and how painless progress will be with *him* at the helm. It's like bidding any contract - you'd like to put all the adds in there you know you are going to need, but if you do you know you won't get the job, so you hope you get the job and develop enough trust as you go that you can go back to the well for those adds you left under the table on the bidding.

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

We hope both that all this is true and that Harris is truly competent, but in truth how Harris talked to Ilitch - at least initially - is probably not that simple. Remember he had to get the job first. There is a calculus there right? If you come into the interview and are brutally honest about how bad it is and how long it will really take, you might not get the job because you know there is probably another guy out there who will  come in and wax poetic about all the potential they see in the system and how painless progress will be with *him* at the helm. It's like bidding any contract - you'd like to put all the adds in there you know you are going to need, but if you do you know you won't get the job, so you hope you get the job and develop enough trust as you go that you can go back to the well for those adds you left under the table on the bidding.

I don’t think Harris could be brutally honest, of course, but I have no doubt that he had to be completely upfront and honest about the Tigers near- and mid-term prospects. Because if he weren’t honest about that, then when it comes out that he basically fluffed Baby Doc just to get the job and he falls short of his ill-advised promise to WIN NOW—and in a small, incestuous industry, that would definitely come out—then that would be curtains for his high-level front office career.