Michigan Football 2025: Rebuilding an offense, hoping our defense remains solid

[MichiganCardinal]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm just finding it too ironic that the schools are only people getting the short end of the stick when they are ones supplying all the value. Take all the athletes playing NCAA football and put them in a new fall league sub NFL football league and they'd be worth approximately ..... nothing - as has already be proven on multiple occasions. People only watch because of the imprimatur those players get by wearing those uniforms, yet it's the schools that now bleeding money. Go figure.

There's definitely some truth to this, but I think it's overly simplistic to ignore that the system is setup to allow this league to exist in its current format.

If the NCAA and intercollegiate athletics on the whole disappeared tomorrow, something would take its place as a developmental league for 18-21-year-old football athletes who aren't ready for the NFL but who are extremely talented. There is clearly a market for Saturday football in the fall, and I think would be successful--absent college football.

As the transfer portal expands and money exchanges more hands though, the loyalty has to decrease commensurately. These kids aren't picking hats off a table anymore to commit to the school they want to go to, they're just weighing the biggest bag of cash.

[romad1]

Read a really good comment about Sherrone in MGOBLOG board.  Summary: 

He's reticent to replace coaches mid-season.  One reason why: he's a workaholic during the season and is just trying to do too many things at once.  Doesn't want to add another level of tasks to his list.  He will fire JB Brown or reassign him after the season (likely reassign if they like his Texas recruiting chops).  

He's also very conservative.  This is not a good long term trend.  He needs to figure out how to flex and to have his coaches flex to better approaches.   His talent base is going to be very good to great in the currently preeminent college football league.  

Author of the original post was POPELANDO

Quote

Third, he’s a first time coach, his mentor Harbaugh never fired anyone mid-season, so, like so many things, maybe he’s internalized a The Right Way for personnel management too? Harbaugh was very concerned about allowing his coaches to leave with dignity, helping them land on their feet, controlling bad optics, etc. There’s a lot to be said about that approach. But it does come with on-field risks.

https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/michigan's-aversion-firing-coaches-mid-season

PopeLando...apologies for reposting your comments. 

Edited 3 hours ago by romad1

[gehringer_2]

11 hours ago, buddha said:

i think michigan will be a top 10 team as early as next season.

you always assume the worst for michigan.  they have more resources than most places and have now opened up their wallets while still (roughly) balancing a budget.  unlike their peers.

i also think they will eventually cave on their sudden principled stance against private equity.  michigan is not leaving the big ten, they will eventually go along with everyone else.  which will mean more money in the immediacy.

I don't think what's going on is just an issue for MI though.  I'm just not seeing where the revenue is going to come from for schools to increase spending to meet the demands now being placed on them. The majority of the money is media rights and the broadcast (or whatever you want to call it in its entireity) schedule is already saturated. There is a lot of speculation - and even investors who think the pot of money is somehow going to explode, but the NFL total seasonal revenue is a bit less than $20B (the salary cap is 279M, there are 32 team and the players get 48% of revenue - that totals  a bit under $20B)  and back of the envelop I'd guess the CFP teams are already committing past that number!

Edited 3 hours ago by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

There's definitely some truth to this, but I think it's overly simplistic to ignore that the system is setup to allow this league to exist in its current format.

If the NCAA and intercollegiate athletics on the whole disappeared tomorrow, something would take its place as a developmental league for 18-21-year-old football athletes who aren't ready for the NFL but who are extremely talented. There is clearly a market for Saturday football in the fall, and I think would be successful--absent college football.

As the transfer portal expands and money exchanges more hands though, the loyalty has to decrease commensurately. These kids aren't picking hats off a table anymore to commit to the school they want to go to, they're just weighing the biggest bag of cash.

What is missing is the profit guarantee. I don't mean this facetiously. In the NFL, teams have a revenue base and a salary cap and know set of expenses and if they manage with even a half ounce of brains, the franchise is guaranteed a positive return. Right now there is nothing like that in College football. There seems to be no cap on costs, revenue distributions are all up in air - it's a mess.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

What is missing is the profit guarantee. I don't mean this facetiously. In the NFL, teams have a revenue base and a salary cap and know set of expenses and if they manage with even a half ounce of brains, the franchise is guaranteed a positive return. Right now there is nothing like that in College football. There seems to be no cap on costs, revenue distributions are all up in air - it's a mess.

yes, its almost as if you need to prudently manage your books!  like a real business!

(as an aside, when i sit through a financial aid talk at michigan and hear its $85k all in for out of state despite their billions in endowment and non-profit tax status, i have very little sympathy for their football budget concerns)

they need to finally face the fact that theyre a minor professional league.  unionize, get some rules, and then guarantee a set return.  the other sports other than men's bball can and should remain amateur.  

[buddha]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't think what's going on is just an issue for MI though.  I'm just not seeing where the revenue is going to come from for schools to increase spending to meet the demands now being placed on them. The majority of the money is media rights and the broadcast (or whatever you want to call it in its entireity) schedule is already saturated. There is a lot of speculation - and even investors who think the pot of money is somehow going to explode, but the NFL total seasonal revenue is a bit less than $20B (the salary cap is 279M, there are 32 team and the players get 48% of revenue - that totals  a bit under $20B)  and back of the envelop I'd guess the CFP teams are already committing past that number!

private equity is salivating to get into american college sports the same way theyve gotten into european soccer teams.

there is a lot of growth potential there.  when is the last time an american sports league's television contract went DOWN?  never.

[romad1]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

private equity is salivating to get into american college sports the same way theyve gotten into european soccer teams.

there is a lot of growth potential there.  when is the last time an american sports league's television contract went DOWN?  never.

PE is a political issue.