Tigermojo Posted September 11 Posted September 11 Tigers (Scottsdale): Kevin McGonigle, SS (No. 1/MLB No. 2); Max Anderson, 2B/3B (No. 9); Jake Miller, LHP (No. 19); Dariel Fregio, RHP; Carlos Lequerica, RHP; Jack Penney, 2B/SS; Kenny Serwa, RHP McGonigle’s at-bats will be must-watch at every stop in the Valley. The Tigers’ top prospect regularly barrels balls from the left side while showing impressive swing decisions; it’s the right balance to give him the best hit tool in the Minors. Anderson, a breakout performer this season, has been rewarded with an AFL trip as he tries to prove he can contribute in The Show next year. Keep an eye out for Serwa, baseball’s most notable knuckleball-throwing prospect as a 28-year-old. https://www.mlb.com/tigers/news/2025-arizona-fall-league-rosters?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage Quote
SeattleMike Posted September 11 Posted September 11 On 9/8/2025 at 12:23 PM, TigerNation said: Here is the stat stability chart from fangraphs: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/ “Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics: 60 PA: Strikeout rate 120 PA: Walk rate 240 PA: HBP rate 290 PA: Single rate 1610 PA: XBH rate 170 PA: HR rate 910 AB: AVG 460 PA: OBP 320 AB: SLG 160 AB: ISO 80 BIP: GB rate 80 BIP: FB rate 600 BIP: LD rate 50 FBs: HR per FB 820 BIP: BABIP As it stands right now, McGonigle has 185 PAs, 151 ABs, and 119 BIP in AA. So his BB%, K%, HR rate are all useful, and ISO is 9 AB away. We basically need to have 6X more ABs before BA has any meaning and 6.9X more BIP before BABIP would have any use. There is also the stats that correlate most to MLB performance: https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/minor-league-stat-stickiness-hitters-cbb694a11282 Hint, it's K% and BB%, followed by home run rate. It's really simple, given the small sample sizes here, there are only a few stats that have any value in looking at, and those are all the stats that McGonigle is absolutely elite in. Comparing McGonigle in A vs AA: BB%: 13.5 vs 16.8% K%: 11.2% vs 11.9% ISO: .277 vs .278 HR rate: 1 per 20.71 ABs vs 1 per 15.1 ABs McGonigle's performance in AA is superior to his performance in A ball when looking at the stats that have actually reached stability and have some use, and those stats are also the stats that are most relevant to look at when projecting forward. BA and BABIP will never have a sample size large enough in the minors because it takes almost 2 whole seasons worth of data to have any use whatsoever. McGonigle is not being challenged in AA, and he won't be challenged in AAA either. The jump from AA to AAA is not that big for somebody who is so far ahead of the AA level that he's posting numbers like this. There is no question that McGonigle is too good for minor league pitching, the only question is how he will handle to the jump to the majors. There's only one way to find that out, and we will find that out shortly, not a year from now. According to a recent Keith Law article about the Arizona Fall League McGonigle's BABIP since August 1 is .125. And yet he still has a wRC+ of 155. 1 Quote
Tigermojo Posted September 12 Posted September 12 WM and Lakeland are both 2-0 in the playoffs. Quote
HugoD Posted September 12 Posted September 12 On 9/8/2025 at 12:41 PM, gehringer_2 said: Other things being constant, BaBIP will correlate to EV and LD%, but since other things aren't constant and since it's really LD% (or launch angle distribution if you want to be modern) and EV that are the 1st order inputs that tell you something. and since they are now more available, you can look at those things directly. Yep, that's always been my thought as well. It's not complicated; if it were, it wouldn't have occurred to me. Like you said, those numbers are now much more available, and I think they should permanently replace references to BABIP. Quote
HugoD Posted September 12 Posted September 12 On 9/8/2025 at 2:23 PM, TigerNation said: Here is the stat stability chart from fangraphs: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/ “Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics: 60 PA: Strikeout rate 120 PA: Walk rate 240 PA: HBP rate 290 PA: Single rate 1610 PA: XBH rate 170 PA: HR rate 910 AB: AVG 460 PA: OBP 320 AB: SLG 160 AB: ISO 80 BIP: GB rate 80 BIP: FB rate 600 BIP: LD rate 50 FBs: HR per FB 820 BIP: BABIP As it stands right now, McGonigle has 185 PAs, 151 ABs, and 119 BIP in AA. So his BB%, K%, HR rate are all useful, and ISO is 9 AB away. We basically need to have 6X more ABs before BA has any meaning and 6.9X more BIP before BABIP would have any use. There is also the stats that correlate most to MLB performance: https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/minor-league-stat-stickiness-hitters-cbb694a11282 Hint, it's K% and BB%, followed by home run rate. It's really simple, given the small sample sizes here, there are only a few stats that have any value in looking at, and those are all the stats that McGonigle is absolutely elite in. Comparing McGonigle in A vs AA: BB%: 13.5 vs 16.8% K%: 11.2% vs 11.9% ISO: .277 vs .278 HR rate: 1 per 20.71 ABs vs 1 per 15.1 ABs McGonigle's performance in AA is superior to his performance in A ball when looking at the stats that have actually reached stability and have some use, and those stats are also the stats that are most relevant to look at when projecting forward. BA and BABIP will never have a sample size large enough in the minors because it takes almost 2 whole seasons worth of data to have any use whatsoever. McGonigle is not being challenged in AA, and he won't be challenged in AAA either. The jump from AA to AAA is not that big for somebody who is so far ahead of the AA level that he's posting numbers like this. There is no question that McGonigle is too good for minor league pitching, the only question is how he will handle to the jump to the majors. There's only one way to find that out, and we will find that out shortly, not a year from now. This is really good information; thanks for compiling it. With so many numbers available these days, including in the "real" world, it's always a fun challenge to try to distinguish predictive signals from noise. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted September 12 Author Posted September 12 (edited) 4 hours ago, HugoD said: This is really good information; thanks for compiling it. With so many numbers available these days, including in the "real" world, it's always a fun challenge to try to distinguish predictive signals from noise. The one caveat is that the player is never truly an invariant source. The person may vary in time due to any of the thousand things that affect people, including his efforts to get better. And of course some guys are just more stable/consistent than others. Edited September 12 by gehringer_2 Quote
TigerNation Posted September 13 Posted September 13 On 9/11/2025 at 1:27 PM, SeattleMike said: According to a recent Keith Law article about the Arizona Fall League McGonigle's BABIP since August 1 is .125. And yet he still has a wRC+ of 155. "He hit .214/.358/.541 from Aug. 1 onward, but with just a 10.6 percent strikeout rate and a bizarre .154 BABIP, while obviously still hitting the ball hard (nine homers in 27 games)." An .899 OPS despite a .154 BABIP is just an insane level of dominance. Quote
TigerNation Posted September 19 Posted September 19 (edited) Some 100 PA rolling numbers for McGonigle in AA. Edited September 19 by TigerNation Quote
Tigermojo Posted September 21 Posted September 21 McGonigle two run homer to start the championship series. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted September 21 Author Posted September 21 43 minutes ago, Tigermojo said: McGonigle two run homer to start the championship series. a couple of weeks ago I would have said it was still nuts to call him up, but the offense is in such a total meltdown right now I think I would do it anyway just to get some new enthusiasm/confidence in the clubhouse Quote
ICroupier Posted September 22 Posted September 22 14 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: a couple of weeks ago I would have said it was still nuts to call him up, but the offense is in such a total meltdown right now I think I would do it anyway just to get some new enthusiasm/confidence in the clubhouse Little late for that. Quote
LongLiveMaroth Posted September 30 Posted September 30 McGonigle and Briceno make 1st and 2nd team All MiLB Quote
IdahoBert Posted October 14 Posted October 14 Someone with a better skill set than my own should keep us informed on what’s happening in the Arizona Fall League with our players. Quote
1984Echoes Posted October 14 Posted October 14 2 hours ago, IdahoBert said: Someone with a better skill set than my own should keep us informed on what’s happening in the Arizona Fall League with our players. Here's a link to the Scottsdale Scorpions: 2025 Scottsdale Scorpions minor league baseball Statistics on StatsCrew.com But it's saying no games have been played yet... Quote
gehringer_2 Posted October 14 Author Posted October 14 I saw McGonigle and Anderson assigned, No Clark Quote
4hzglory Posted October 14 Posted October 14 1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said: I saw McGonigle and Anderson assigned, No Clark Anderson was on BA’s hot sheet for the 1st week. McGonigle and he both had solid first weeks. I remember seeing stats on Bless You Boys Quote
1984Echoes Posted October 14 Posted October 14 1 hour ago, 4hzglory said: Anderson was on BA’s hot sheet for the 1st week. McGonigle and he both had solid first weeks. I remember seeing stats on Bless You Boys Kevin McGonigle and Max Anderson start strong in the Arizona Fall League | Bless You Boys Kevin McGonigle and Max Anderson start strong in the Arizona Fall League Both infielders have played a lot of third base so far. by Brandon Day Oct 13, 2025, 7:00 AM EDT Quote
RatkoVarda Posted October 27 Posted October 27 success in better than failure in the AFL, but McGonigle and Anderson are continuing to hit really well, just like Liranzo and Briceno did last year Quote
gehringer_2 Posted October 27 Author Posted October 27 9 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: success in better than failure in the AFL, but McGonigle and Anderson are continuing to hit really well, just like Liranzo and Briceno did last year McGonigle's OPS is 1000, but 19 players have OPS >900 and 9 have more walks than K (like McG). Not a trough league for hitters. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted October 30 Author Posted October 30 (edited) Max Anderson leading the AFL with a 517 BA in 42 PA https://www.mlb.com/tigers/news/arizona-fall-league-early-statcast-standouts https://www.mlb.com/arizona-fall-league/stats/batting-average Edited October 30 by gehringer_2 Quote
TigerNation Posted 12 hours ago Posted 12 hours ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-mcgonigle-talks-hitting/ 1 1 Quote
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