Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[Tigermojo]

Tigers (Scottsdale): Kevin McGonigle, SS (No. 1/MLB No. 2); Max Anderson, 2B/3B (No. 9); Jake Miller, LHP (No. 19); Dariel Fregio, RHP; Carlos Lequerica, RHP; Jack Penney, 2B/SS; Kenny Serwa, RHP

McGonigle’s at-bats will be must-watch at every stop in the Valley. The Tigers’ top prospect regularly barrels balls from the left side while showing impressive swing decisions; it’s the right balance to give him the best hit tool in the Minors. Anderson, a breakout performer this season, has been rewarded with an AFL trip as he tries to prove he can contribute in The Show next year. Keep an eye out for Serwa, baseball’s most notable knuckleball-throwing prospect as a 28-year-old.

https://www.mlb.com/tigers/news/2025-arizona-fall-league-rosters?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

[SeattleMike]

On 9/8/2025 at 12:23 PM, TigerNation said:

Here is the stat stability chart from fangraphs: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

“Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

• 60 PA: Strikeout rate
• 120 PA: Walk rate
• 240 PA: HBP rate
• 290 PA: Single rate
• 1610 PA: XBH rate
• 170 PA: HR rate

• 910 AB: AVG
• 460 PA: OBP
• 320 AB: SLG
• 160 AB: ISO

• 80 BIP: GB rate
• 80 BIP: FB rate
• 600 BIP: LD rate
• 50 FBs: HR per FB
• 820 BIP: BABIP

 

As it stands right now, McGonigle has 185 PAs, 151 ABs, and 119 BIP in AA. So his BB%, K%, HR rate are all useful, and ISO is 9 AB away. We basically need to have 6X more ABs before BA has any meaning and 6.9X more BIP before BABIP would have any use.

 

There is also the stats that correlate most to MLB performance: https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/minor-league-stat-stickiness-hitters-cbb694a11282

 

Hint, it's K% and BB%, followed by home run rate.

 

It's really simple, given the small sample sizes here, there are only a few stats that have any value in looking at, and those are all the stats that McGonigle is absolutely elite in.

 

Comparing McGonigle in A vs AA:

 

BB%: 13.5 vs 16.8%

K%: 11.2% vs 11.9%

ISO: .277 vs .278

HR rate: 1 per 20.71 ABs vs 1 per 15.1 ABs

 

McGonigle's performance in AA is superior to his performance in A ball when looking at the stats that have actually reached stability and have some use, and those stats are also the stats that are most relevant to look at when projecting forward. BA and BABIP will never have a sample size large enough in the minors because it takes almost 2 whole seasons worth of data to have any use whatsoever.

 

McGonigle is not being challenged in AA, and he won't be challenged in AAA either. The jump from AA to AAA is not that big for somebody who is so far ahead of the AA level that he's posting numbers like this. There is no question that McGonigle is too good for minor league pitching, the only question is how he will handle to the jump to the majors. There's only one way to find that out, and we will find that out shortly, not a year from now.

 

According to a recent Keith Law article about the Arizona Fall League McGonigle's BABIP since August 1 is .125. And yet he still has a wRC+ of 155. 

[Tigermojo]

WM and Lakeland are both 2-0 in the playoffs.

[HugoD]

On 9/8/2025 at 12:41 PM, gehringer_2 said:

Other things being constant, BaBIP will correlate to EV and LD%, but since other things aren't constant and since it's really LD% (or launch angle distribution if you want to be modern) and EV that are the 1st order inputs that tell you something. and since they are now more available, you can look at those things directly. 

Yep, that's always been my thought as well.  It's not complicated; if it were, it wouldn't have occurred to me.  Like you said, those numbers are now much more available, and I think they should permanently replace references to BABIP.

[HugoD]

On 9/8/2025 at 2:23 PM, TigerNation said:

Here is the stat stability chart from fangraphs: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

“Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

• 60 PA: Strikeout rate
• 120 PA: Walk rate
• 240 PA: HBP rate
• 290 PA: Single rate
• 1610 PA: XBH rate
• 170 PA: HR rate

• 910 AB: AVG
• 460 PA: OBP
• 320 AB: SLG
• 160 AB: ISO

• 80 BIP: GB rate
• 80 BIP: FB rate
• 600 BIP: LD rate
• 50 FBs: HR per FB
• 820 BIP: BABIP

 

As it stands right now, McGonigle has 185 PAs, 151 ABs, and 119 BIP in AA. So his BB%, K%, HR rate are all useful, and ISO is 9 AB away. We basically need to have 6X more ABs before BA has any meaning and 6.9X more BIP before BABIP would have any use.

 

There is also the stats that correlate most to MLB performance: https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/minor-league-stat-stickiness-hitters-cbb694a11282

 

Hint, it's K% and BB%, followed by home run rate.

 

It's really simple, given the small sample sizes here, there are only a few stats that have any value in looking at, and those are all the stats that McGonigle is absolutely elite in.

 

Comparing McGonigle in A vs AA:

 

BB%: 13.5 vs 16.8%

K%: 11.2% vs 11.9%

ISO: .277 vs .278

HR rate: 1 per 20.71 ABs vs 1 per 15.1 ABs

 

McGonigle's performance in AA is superior to his performance in A ball when looking at the stats that have actually reached stability and have some use, and those stats are also the stats that are most relevant to look at when projecting forward. BA and BABIP will never have a sample size large enough in the minors because it takes almost 2 whole seasons worth of data to have any use whatsoever.

 

McGonigle is not being challenged in AA, and he won't be challenged in AAA either. The jump from AA to AAA is not that big for somebody who is so far ahead of the AA level that he's posting numbers like this. There is no question that McGonigle is too good for minor league pitching, the only question is how he will handle to the jump to the majors. There's only one way to find that out, and we will find that out shortly, not a year from now.

 

This is really good information; thanks for compiling it.  With so many numbers available these days, including in the "real" world, it's always a fun challenge to try to distinguish predictive signals from noise.

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, HugoD said:

This is really good information; thanks for compiling it.  With so many numbers available these days, including in the "real" world, it's always a fun challenge to try to distinguish predictive signals from noise.

The one caveat is that the player is never truly an invariant source. The person may vary in time due to any of the thousand things that affect people, including his efforts to get better. And of course some guys are just more stable/consistent than others. 

Edited September 12 by gehringer_2

[TigerNation]

On 9/11/2025 at 1:27 PM, SeattleMike said:

According to a recent Keith Law article about the Arizona Fall League McGonigle's BABIP since August 1 is .125. And yet he still has a wRC+ of 155. 

"He hit .214/.358/.541 from Aug. 1 onward, but with just a 10.6 percent strikeout rate and a bizarre .154 BABIP, while obviously still hitting the ball hard (nine homers in 27 games)."

An .899 OPS despite a .154 BABIP is just an insane level of dominance.

[Tigeraholic1]

 

[Tigeraholic1]

 

[Tigermojo]

Erie lost their first game unfortunately.