Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Sports_Freak]

I read an interesting stat in today's Free Press. I'm not sure if it's accurate or not but it makes a good argument for signing him;

With Skubal, the Tigers have advanced to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. To get there, the Tigers went 42-20 in the 62 games started by Skubal - and were 131-131 in games not started by Skubal.

 

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I read an interesting stat in today's Free Press. I'm not sure if it's accurate or not but it makes a good argument for signing him;

With Skubal, the Tigers have advanced to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. To get there, the Tigers went 42-20 in the 62 games started by Skubal - and were 131-131 in games not started by Skubal.

 

even when they were 25 over in August they were below 500 in games not started by Skubal or Mize.

OTOH, I don't think the world turns black on the day Skubal inevitably departs. Depending on Jobe's timetable, if you have a rotation that starts with Olson, Mize, Jobe, Melton you may still have a playoff team with only one or two reasonable additions. Or maybe not, but the current potential staff is not all chopped liver behind Skubal.

Edited October 14 by gehringer_2

[Sports_Freak]

I don't have a problem with Skubal asking for $40 million per but 10 years? 6 years maybe.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

3 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I read an interesting stat in today's Free Press. I'm not sure if it's accurate or not but it makes a good argument for signing him;

With Skubal, the Tigers have advanced to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. To get there, the Tigers went 42-20 in the 62 games started by Skubal - and were 131-131 in games not started by Skubal.

 

 

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

even when they were 25 over in August they were below 500 in games not started by Skubal or Mize.

This is EXACTLY why I think the Tigers have been over achieving the last two years and implore the Tigers to trade Skubal to set them up for the next decade. 

You put Michael Jordan on an average College basketball team in his prime and let him play 60% of the time, they are more than likely going to win a majority of those games. He can carry them by himself even if those around him are under achieving. I feel like this has been the Tigers the last two years. Now you trade Michael Jordan in this scenario and bring in two five star prospects along with your one five star and 2 four star commitments, now you built a winning team.

I know very little about basketball. But I'm guessing 3 five stars and 2 four stars are probably going to do pretty good if they all are top 30 players at their perspective spots. Especially if they all stay together and play four years. Lets do that with the Tigers...... But they have to do it NOW!  (just my $0.02)

[AlaskanTigersFan]

4 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I don't have a problem with Skubal asking for $40 million per but 10 years? 6 years maybe.

8 is minimum. 10 is most likely. Yankee's, Mets, Dodgers, Phillies will all give him at least 8. Someone will most likely go to 10.

[4hzglory]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

even when they were 25 over in August they were below 500 in games not started by Skubal or Mize.

OTOH, I don't think the world turns black on the day Skubal inevitably departs. Depending on Jobe's timetable, if you have a rotation that starts with Olson, Mize, Jobe, Melton you may still have a playoff team with only one or two reasonable additions. Or maybe not, but the current potential staff is not all chopped liver behind Skubal.

I agree, but I don’t think you get that in 2026-at least the best of Jobe.  They would need to sign Mize or a similar replacement, but this is why I don’t think it’s all hopeless if Skubal leaves for a draft pick after 2026.

[Hongbit]

They should go 10/$475 and get it done.  Boras would have him sign that this winter. 

The term is irrelevant to me.   I want 6 more seasons of quality Skubal and will happily live through 4 potentially difficult seasons afterwards paying $47M for a guy that is not effective.   Let’s attack the next 5 seasons and not worry about the distant future.  

Edited October 14 by Hongbit

[Shades of Deivi Cruz]

I'm conflicted because I don't think Skubal will sign anywhere prior to free agency, which points to trading him in the off season. On the other hand, our history with trading for prospects ranges from terrible to awful to laughable. 

[buddha]

they shouldnt be counting on jackson jobe to be anything.  i'm not saying he wont bounce back, but his trajectory now is more likely to be average-ish casey mize than the all world spin doctor he was touted to be.

[Tiger337]

22 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I read an interesting stat in today's Free Press. I'm not sure if it's accurate or not but it makes a good argument for signing him;

With Skubal, the Tigers have advanced to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. To get there, the Tigers went 42-20 in the 62 games started by Skubal - and were 131-131 in games not started by Skubal.

 

So, they are six wins worse without him (87 this year)?  So, his 6.6 WAR makes some sense?  Of course, the pitchers who replaced him (if they had to replace him on the fly) would probably not be as good as the guys that went 131-131 which is what WAR is supposed to be about.  I think a replacement level pitcher on an average hitting team would be .400. Put that pitcher in 32 games and they win 13 games.  Win half the other games and they win 78 total.  Hopefully, once he goes though, they will have added someone who is not replacement level.    

[gehringer_2]

32 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

So, they are six wins worse without him (87 this year)?  So, his 6.6 WAR makes some sense?  Of course, the pitchers who replaced him (if they had to replace him on the fly) would probably not be as good as the guys that went 131-131 which is what WAR is supposed to be about.  I think a replacement level pitcher on an average hitting team would be .400. Put that pitcher in 32 games and they win 13 games.  Win half the other games and they win 78 total.  Hopefully, once he goes though, they will have added someone who is not replacement level.    

OK - so by the numbers,  Assume Mize is Mize, Olson was 1.7 WAR in 68 IP. Can he be 3.7 WAR in 160? Jobe was 0.4 WAR in 50 IP, can he supply at least 1.4 in a full season? So you have 3.0 back. Can Melton be better than 2 WAR? That would be 5. Can they sign 2 WAR? I would think so. That would be and additional 7. Flahery was 1 WAR. If he stays he should be better, if he goes 1 WAR shouldn't be that hard to improve on.

They have some assets, but they have to get them on the field and keep them off the IL. Harris hit that as a major emphasis, but I don't know what pitching health magic the Tigers think they can find that hasn't already been tried and failed. 

Because after Montero I'm not seeing much depth if people get hurt next season. Brieske? Madden, Guenther? 😑

Of course the flip side is that if Skubal is still here, with Olson back and Melton joining the staff, they could be the 95 win team we thought we had last season.

Edited October 14 by gehringer_2

[ewsieg]

If the Tigers don't sign him by winter meetings, they should deal him.  This org is serious in that they want to win on their terms with their guys and until those guys are helping the big league club, don't expect any additional help.  So if we can get him, maybe 8/350, go for it.  But if you can't find a deal that works, no point sending this team out next season without any improvements just to watch us compete for the wildcard again and likely get bounced early.  

Sucks that we've made it to the divisional series two years in a row, are a relatively young team, and we're told there is no reason to try to improve this team with outside help, it's preferable to wait 2-3 years for the 'calvary'.

[Tigermojo]

The real trick would be unlocking the next Skubal. I think the rotation is the biggest concern going forward.

I don't think it's smart to invest so much in one player. I wouldn't give him a contract. 

I don't think we would get three starting players for him. More likely a bench player, a reliever and a lottery ticket. I wouldn't trade him. We still get the lottery ticket.

Based on Harris' history I think he would invest in two or three starters instead of going all in on Skubal.

[papalawrence]

Boston still has some strong prospects. A 1-2 punch of Skubal and Crochet would be a nightmare for every other team. But I hate the Red Sox. 

[1984Echoes]

Which is why I'd rather it be the Phillies or Dodgers if Skubal insists on hitting free agency.

And they're both loaded too in the farm system.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

24 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

The real trick would be unlocking the next Skubal. I think the rotation is the biggest concern going forward.

I don't think it's smart to invest so much in one player. I wouldn't give him a contract. 

I don't think we would get three starting players for him. More likely a bench player, a reliever and a lottery ticket. I wouldn't trade him. We still get the lottery ticket.

Based on Harris' history I think he would invest in two or three starters instead of going all in on Skubal.

I think your drastically undervaluing his trade value right now. Look at the trade offers on the previous page. We're talking 2 Top 3 prospects in an organization and a high end flyer....... Thats quite a bit more than a bench player, reliever and lottery ticket.........

[Tigermojo]

5 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I think your drastically undervaluing his trade value right now. Look at the trade offers on the previous page. We're talking 2 Top 3 prospects in an organization and a high end flyer....... Thats quite a bit more than a bench player, reliever and lottery ticket.........

I saw them.

[SeattleMike]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

even when they were 25 over in August they were below 500 in games not started by Skubal or Mize.

OTOH, I don't think the world turns black on the day Skubal inevitably departs. Depending on Jobe's timetable, if you have a rotation that starts with Olson, Mize, Jobe, Melton you may still have a playoff team with only one or two reasonable additions. Or maybe not, but the current potential staff is not all chopped liver behind Skubal.

Mize is a free agent after next year as well. And the way Hinch treats him it seems unlikely the Tigers will move aggressively to retain him.

[4hzglory]

21 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I think your drastically undervaluing his trade value right now. Look at the trade offers on the previous page. We're talking 2 Top 3 prospects in an organization and a high end flyer....... Thats quite a bit more than a bench player, reliever and lottery ticket.........

I think you’re overestimating the likelihood of performance of the packages and underestimating the value of 2026 Skubal to this team.  IMO that value is worth more than 1 top prospect in an organization and a flyer-I’m valuing the comp pick as roughly one of the top prospects in those organizations.

[Tigermojo]

Harris has 40 roster spots to work with. They have been getting 6 wins from the first spot for two years and probably (possibly, hopefully) will again next year. After that, Harris needs to add 6+ wins somehow between 1-40. It's possible.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

So, they are six wins worse without him (87 this year)?  So, his 6.6 WAR makes some sense?  Of course, the pitchers who replaced him (if they had to replace him on the fly) would probably not be as good as the guys that went 131-131 which is what WAR is supposed to be about.  I think a replacement level pitcher on an average hitting team would be .400. Put that pitcher in 32 games and they win 13 games.  Win half the other games and they win 78 total.  Hopefully, once he goes though, they will have added someone who is not replacement level.    

Maybe theyll sign some good players after Miggy's contract comes off the books.....oh wait, that ship has sailed. 😅😅

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

 

This is EXACTLY why I think the Tigers have been over achieving the last two years and implore the Tigers to trade Skubal to set them up for the next decade. 

You put Michael Jordan on an average College basketball team in his prime and let him play 60% of the time, they are more than likely going to win a majority of those games. He can carry them by himself even if those around him are under achieving. I feel like this has been the Tigers the last two years. Now you trade Michael Jordan in this scenario and bring in two five star prospects along with your one five star and 2 four star commitments, now you built a winning team.

I know very little about basketball. But I'm guessing 3 five stars and 2 four stars are probably going to do pretty good if they all are top 30 players at their perspective spots. Especially if they all stay together and play four years. Lets do that with the Tigers...... But they have to do it NOW!  (just my $0.02)

I understand. His value is higher with control over a full season than it would be at the trade deadline when he's only a rental. And the Tigers may not trade him at the deadline if we're contending. The fans would scream bloody murder and for good reason. No, the only way the Tigers can move him is this winter. Or keep him, sign some other talent and make a run for a title? That would be my choice.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

I'd love the Tigers to run it one more time. But if they do, they set the franchise back 10 years. And unfortunately, I don't think I'm being dramatic/wrong. Like someone said earlier, we're a .500 team when Skubal isn't pitching (which again, I'm of the minority that with 2 players at a WRC of 100 or better, we've been overacheiving the last two years). 

If we have the chance to add someone like Andrew Painter (who can be 80 to 90% of what Skubal can be), a true SS, and an Outfielder that will start, mix that in with McGonigle and Clark adding to Dingler, Greene, Carpenter, Keith..... You just now set yourself with a REAL team for the next decade. 

Don't get me wrong, I want the Tigers to win. But you learn from history. The Angels in this case are our history. They ran with Ohtani instead of stocking their farm with more talent to add to their top prospects, and now they are still another 5-6 years away from being true contenders.

So the choice is simple, run it back in 2026 and pray for a win, or set yourself up from 2027-2037 every single year (or at least hedging your bets by 80%+). For me, I want to go to the playoffs for 10 years and have a chance every year. Not just one year then be miserable for 10 years. Look at the Red Wings for another example. How many people are screaming for Yzerman's head when we begged for him to come here.... He inherited an empty cupboard and the draft God's crapped on him every year. From my understanding we might miss the playoffs again. But that's what happens when you sell your soul to stay in the playoffs for so long and litereally empty everything. If we keep Skubal and don't trade him, we are selling our soul for one year. Something tells me many of you will have pitchforks in 3-4 years because of it.

But, like I said earlier, to each his own.  

[AlaskanTigersFan]

I also want to say, theres a HUGE difference when you have two blue chip prospects and four. The Tigers have a LEGIT chance at having four of the top 25 prospects in baseball if not five. That is franchise altering..... Add that to what we have already at the MLB level (Dingler, Greene, Carpenter, Keith [and to an extent Tork]) and that's how you build a continual winning franchise. This is how Clevelands been competitive for 20 years, this is how the Rays operate every year...... We finally have a good development system which we haven't had in 40 years. We can finally develop talent. Give the coaches the tools they need to produce winners. I think they'll shock you.

[4hzglory]

4 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I also want to say, theres a HUGE difference when you have two blue chip prospects and four. The Tigers have a LEGIT chance at having four of the top 25 prospects in baseball if not five. That is franchise altering..... Add that to what we have already at the MLB level (Dingler, Greene, Carpenter, Keith [and to an extent Tork]) and that's how you build a continual winning franchise. This is how Clevelands been competitive for 20 years, this is how the Rays operate every year...... We finally have a good development system which we haven't had in 40 years. We can finally develop talent. Give the coaches the tools they need to produce winners. I think they'll shock you.

Where you completely lose credibility is saying we will be set back 10 years if we don’t trade Skubal.  I think our reputation in the clubhouse or FA’s may be set back considerably if we do, as it would clearly show we aren’t willing to take a chance.

Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize (as well as Delmon Young and Jarikson Profar) were #1 overall prospects.  The prospects we get for Skubal are as likely to become them as stars.  (And I don’t think we get Painter for 1 year of Skubal from the Phillies side either.  1 year pitchers just haven’t gotten the type of returns it seems you are expecting-and I wouldn’t make the trades for what you’re expecting.  A slightly better Corbin Burnes return is likely what we’d get and 1 year of Skubal on a competing team is worth more than that to me.
 

We currently have 4 top 50 prospects depending on multiple sites.  And Liranzo is a top 100 on some.  See above-not all will pan out, but our cupboard is not bare at all   We are not set back 10 years if we don’t trade him.